Hi guys,

Villain is a reg and has 15/11 in 85 hands. Given that and postflop action, would you consider a fold OTT? How played, is it a clear fold OTR? Might be an obvious spot for the most of you, though would appreciate your thoughts on this one.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Hero (11,730) 98bb
UTG+1 Player2 (9,506) 79bb
MP1 Player3 (7,128) 59bb
MP2 Player4 (9,610) 80bb
MP3 Player5 (8,077) 67bb
CO Player6 (13,272) 111bb
BTN Player7 (9,344) 78bb
SB Player8 (12,550) 105bb
BB Player9 (8,983) 75bb

Blinds: 60/120

Pre-Flop: (180, 9 players) Hero is UTG 10 10
Hero raises to 300, 5 folds, Player7 calls 300, Player8 calls 240, Player9 calls 180

Flop: 9 4 3 (1,200, 4 players)
Player8 checks, Player9 checks, Hero checks, Player7 bets 720, Player8 folds, Player9 folds, Hero calls 720

Turn: 10 (2,640, 2 players)
Hero checks, Player7 bets 1,680, Hero calls 1,680

River: 2 (6,000, 2 players)
Hero checks, Player7 bets 6,644, 6644 to Hero (9030)?

bet/fold flop for value and protection.
Might lead turn as well, obviously not folding after check

fold river

Bet/fold flop and basically playing bet/bet/bet.

As played it would be a huge mistake to fold on turn and so is river unless you have some insane reads on your opponent. Pure math says you need 34% equity for a call on the river and if your opponent bets only sets and flushes, you have 39%. Obv, you called and lost, hence this post, but you need to stop thinking results oriented.

i don't think we have to bet fold flop, i think you played it fine

think river is a call

Think all streets are fine, now call. he is easily valuebetting any other set, and we haven't even started on the Ah bluffs in his range.

Also we are at the top of our range

I agree with boobsicles and also think it's fine to x/c down here

Flop might be a fold actually.

Think flop is close, depends on how bad the blinds are, usually just bet for value. As played snap the river and chuckle to yourself about how hard you owned him.

People are so happy to calldown it in milly vs what it seems to be 15/11 reg... hmmm...


I think this is mostly irrelevant considerations and partly just wrong.

Lol, how is his betting range irrelevant?

its the "wrong" part

User you mind explaining your judgement of stating I'm wrong?

I hope you're saying that about the Ah bluffs, which might or might not be in his range, neither of us knows. As to valuebetting sets, he has to be insanely nitty to NOT valuebet those.

I just think hero taken a weird way to come to the river so his range should be perceived as polarized between hands which could improve but didn`t thus would never call a shove and some weirdly slowplayed hands which are > sets.

Idk maybe in game I`d have different feeling about the spot.

I should add to your statement "we`re at the top" that our top set is also well disguised but as I`ve said I think its irrelevant. Teh milly.

^^^^Uhm since we played TT this way, we would also sometimes play JJ-AA this way with or without a heart... So I don't know how you've come to a polarized range for hero, our hand looks exactly like an overpair.

Also if we had a hand like AhKx etc we would more likely bet them Otf instead of x/c

There's three combos each of 99 44 33. Surely he doesn't have pocket deuces often in this spot.

So there's nine combos that we beat. We can see it's over a pot-sized bet so we know we need to be right over 1/3rd of the time. If there's 18 combos of value hands we would not be getting odds to call.

There's eight combos of ace-high flush draw.
There's seven combos of king-high flush draw.
There's six combos of queen-high flush draw.
etc. It seems to reach a total over 18 pretty quickly.

Here's the way I look it. Create a pre-flop range that assumes Villains' range is set-mining/suited connectors/suited aces. Put that identical range into poker stove three times. Depending on how you do it we're behind about 40-45% of the time on the river. It seems like his line is consistent with those times.

But if you think Villains are mostly calling pre-flop with unsuited aces planning to run multi-street bluffs the math changes.

Like I said before - we need 34% equity to make the call. It seems like we did a similar math. What I did was select a reasonable flatting range (I'd have to redo it to give you an exact number, but rest assured it wasn't a tight range, and take into account that our only info on the opponent is he's a 15/11 player which is not very loose) and take all the flushes. I think I did make a mistake in that I think I included also a set of deuces, which I probably shouldn't have. However that's 3 combos, and I didn't include a single bluff/semi bluff/ weaker value hand, so I think they at least even themselves out. And putting together those flushes and sets we have 39% with TT. Neither of us knows exact ranges, nor do we know opponents bluffing frequencies.

Another thing is I think you miscalculated or mistyped our equity vs his range. If you say we're behind 40-45% it means we are ahead 55-60% and that's way much more than we need for a call.

No offense sir, but you should be calling anybet no matter how small the pot was previously if you are good >50% of the time... so I don't understand your point when you say we are behind 40-45% of the time


Also you should seriously exclude some K5hh and Q5hh type hands from his range....and if you do include them - you must include all Ah*x which would include more bluffs and we'd be calling yet again.