Hi Team. First post here, just looking for advice as this hand has been bothering me. Im a supernova regular grinder (like to think a winning player but having doubts)

So in the big milly last night im on a table with complete amateurs, certainly the best player at the table. 10k starting chips and im now upto about 40k 2 hours in.

Im then moved tables so little info on the players

Raise 1200 with JJ utg. ( blinds 250/500 )

Utg+1 3 bets to about 4400

So i can already presume big pair or AK here

Folds round and I call.

Flop comes 4 9 2 Rainbow.

I bet 4k and he shoves (he has slightly less stack than me, but enough to ruin my tournament)

I feel like i already know im losing here but cant find the fold button and call, he has QQ and thats the end of my tourny.

Am i just too stupid here by not folding where i was almost certain i was behind? or is this just a cooler where you should never really be folding JJ on a low rainbow board?

If it was 100% a fold, any advice on how i can enforce the fold in these situations? at least a few hands per session i find the call button when i have the 'gut feeling' im behind. but convince myself im getting coolered.

any info would be appreciated. Ive joined a few training sites lately and really trying to improve my game. I am super unlucky though, i came 4th in Hot 109 with KK into A5 pre (were 2 big stacks, the other 2 short) and he hit the A and went on to win the tourny. Ive come 9th in 215 bounty builder with AA into QQ, flopped the A but he runners a 10 and a K to give him a straight with the J and A on board. Also come 5th in 215 bounty builder where i ran QQ to AA and didnt hit.

I run so bad when super deep/final tabling, but presumably this will turn round one day.......

x/c flop and go from there.

And if i check and he still shoves ?

It seems such an obvious fold, but i query it just because you'd be surprised how many times you call in this exact spot and people have shoved their AK because they havnt hit and cant fold it.

What is the correct decision regards to EV

Its a spot to fold pre imo especially readless. Such a large 3bet sizing from UTG+1 that I doubt we are doing very good against his range and unlikely we have setmining odds.

this. i could get behind a 4b/fold maybe but not trying to play oop vs his range.

Villain has 18 ways to make aa-qq and sixteen ways to make AK. It's a little more likely he has aa-qq. There's 9550 in the pot on the flop. You bet 4K and he shoves, so you're calling 32k and getting about 1.5 to 1 on your money. You need to be good 40 per cent of the time to break even here. If villain is shoving always with AK then it is an easy call.

I do not think all villains shovel it in with AK here. Many fold to your flop bet. If less than about 3/4 of AK shove, you're no longer breaking even.

Generally speaking, bad beat stories are for BBV rather than here. Saying you're unlucky isn't, with all respect, an analytically useful point.

I'm pretty sure I can find a fold here.

If V is shoving in 36k more on a nine-high flop with qq, setmining odds are close, are they not? I would think that suggests a J high flop isn't slowing villain down.

Thanks for advice all. Need to enforce those folds more!

but I wasnt posting 'bad bead stories' whoever mentioned this. Just looking for advice and giving some background.

sure, but there are times where his QQ will see like a KJx or AJx flop and we dont get it in, same with KK that sees AJx flop etc.

In general, playing OOP vs that polarized range in a tournament that comes around 1x a year I would say fold, especially because we have a large stack already and should have a good edge on the table.

I also dont play PSTARS anymore so I cannot comment on standard UTG+1 3bet range for UTG opens, however, I think 20:1 for setmining is needed, especially when OOP.

Yep. I'm a little more optimistic about setmining .... I usually think I need 15:1 or better, so we're not far apart here. I guess I can find a fold.

This is definitely a spot where I want to know if villain is capable of polarity here. If he is it is no longer at all profitable.

holy crap how are you super nova and u dont know this spot jesus

I prefer the Pearljammer route of calling and treating them like middle pp's early. Not many scenarios you put money in after that flop and getting action from a worse hand. Already OOP coupled with an early raise = bad situation.

Has nothing to do w nitjammer. Has to do w ranges of utg and 3b ranges of utg+1

Kinda harsh but true.
OP w/ no reads fold pre.
If we decided to call, don't lead, x/c and go from there, doesn't make any sense to lead this flop (in general you don't wanna do that)


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Think we need to call pre because we're overfolding otherwise. I can see folding 99 or AQo, but if we're folding JJ we're folding like 75-80% of our range.

On the flop, there is zero reason to lead. None. We should be checking our entire range there into a preflop 3-bettor.

Open is fine, calling the 3bet is fine. I would not lead though after being 3bet on a table with no HH on the players. As others stated x/c flop seems most optimal. Then re evaluate on turn.

Right.

Villain is playing face up. It is hard for this to be balanced with 3bet sizing.

Lead is awful and call allin is worse. There are some situations when leading into a 3-bettor can be good, but not here.

Flat call of 3-bet is good with this strong a hand. You have good implied odds, as he is often stacking off. Check/reevaluate flop. May check/fold to large cbet sizing.

Please

How you mean this is such a standard spot and op completely butchers it.
These utg battles ranges are so standard and op decides to just start clicking buttons and have a leading range? Qq is the stone bottom of his value range here and he's just gonna show you qq+almost like 100% here. Regardless of what ips strategy is leading and calling it off is just pretty silly. And if you routinely punting like this in simple spots it's gonna be tough to beat the games playing nl mtts or cash. I'd lol and make make a fish note after stacking a dude like this if I was in villains shoes in any nl variant

Yea agree with you

Why is the flop a c/c? We are usually drawing to 2 outs. If he is doing this with AK or as a bluff, he probably isn't going to just cbet and shut down. He should continue to represent a big pp. It seems like calling the flop is just throwing away chips.

OP you gotta be told the truth, this one hand is plenty to see your game needs a ton of work for you to be anywhere near competent. This coming from a guy who is nowhere close to top class at poker. Also your mental game needs a lot of work from your spout at the end of your thread. This is a very clear xc otf and pretty easy fold as played once he jams your donklead. But you should never have led in the first place. Post more hands here, ask friends who are better than you for advice both with hands and with the mental side, and always look for ways to improve your game. This was not a cooler, and I'm sure a lot of hands you've played were not coolers although you decide to call them that because you're not as good as you think. Doesn't mean you can't improve and get better at the game.


What hands are you going to continue with then? This is pretty high up in our range (depends how many combos of QQ+ we slowplay here, and what we do with AK ofc) and folding to a bet on a decent flop for our hand is exploitable and weak. Sometimes we just have to call with some hands because we need folds on later streets or face getting owned by good players.

What does good players have to do with this? This is presumably against a donk playing face up.