Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $160(BB) Replayer
SB ($11,959)
BB ($10,000)
Hero ($31,381)
UTG+1 ($9,962)
UTG+2 ($8,260)
MP1 ($17,309)
CO ($18,846)
BTN ($12,765)

Dealt to Hero A 6

Hero raises to $320, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $320, fold, fold

FLOP ($880) 5 4 7

Hero bets $480, BTN calls $480

TURN ($1,840) 5 4 7 4

Hero bets $880, BTN calls $880

RIVER ($3,600) 5 4 7 4 9

Hero bets $1,820, BTN raises to $5,075, Hero ???

Hello,

No info about the guy. Looked him up and he was playing some high stakes MTTs during that time. According to pokerprolabs, he has played only 200 games in stars w/ 41K winnings his biggest win being second in the 215 sunday second chance for 37K, and thats pretty much it. His secodn biggest win is from a 1K HU sng so I assume he is not good.

Think this should be a call from theoritical point of view, right? But how often we expect a rather weak reg to raise worse for value, or turn something like 66 into a bluff? He prolly have KhQh, KhJh from time to time which he would raise for value on the river, but that looks about it?

What about my sizings? Think I could go a bit bigger on all of the streets?

flop bet is ok, would raised turn bet equal to his remaining chips.
anything from Ax,KhJh,KhQh,A7

Anyone think that A6s is too loose an open from UTG?

Think bet sizing is ok, but I would c/c river as your line looks strong, open UTG and barrel flop and turn and yet they are still there.

Don't like setting him in OTT as you only get called by hands that crush you as it is a massive over bet.

As played, don't see what you are beating that gets to the river on that run out. What could he have? KQhh, don't see KJhh getting beyond the flop.

45 suited is easily possible as is 77, 55 and possibly 99 although that might fold to a two barrel from UTG.

I think I fold.

Yeah, let's bet 12k into 1800 on the turn, that makes sense. c/c river is super bad as well, we need to get some value and it's a disaster to check this if we ever want to bluff. I guess the raise is whatever, he might have worse for value sometimes with like K5hh or have a bluff. Sure looks like a boat though.

regret playing A6s UTG and sigh call.

Im not talking about overbetting the turn or w/e. I just thought that, with this stack depth it might be better to bet bigger on the turn for balance issues, but thats SM and we are against unknown so shouldnt really matter.

What you think about a bluff in this spot, if we went for lets say 1,1K on the turn and bet big on the river if we brick, or its too ambitions to try and get a random off of a hand like TT, or something?

doubt villain shows up w enough combos of float flushes for us to call this

fold pre, fold river

Whole hand looks fine, river is close, probably a fold.

yup
sooner a fold than not )

Definitely fold pre, it's too loose

I think opening a weak suited ace utg is okay, especiallly given your stack size. I like the flop sizing and think turn is probably a check and here is why..

If we bet turn I think we are only getting calls from pairs 4-J (Assuming he would 3 b QQ+). I think hands like AJ,AQ,AK would be folding or raising to our flop bet anyways.

On river I like betting about half the pot. I think some may think this line looks bluffy but I think this is how you would play JJ+, checking the turn for pot control. You should get river calls from 22,33,66,88,1010 and raises from 44,55,77,99,weaker flushes and some air/missed str8 draws. I would think he would raise 55 and 77 on the turn though, with the draws out there and wanting to induce a reraise from a high pocket pair.

This is a very tough spot facing this river raise as we think he is just flatting so much of his value range here. It's pretty unlikely although possible that he called your flop and turn bet with somethin like KQ/KJs. So I think this is a cry/fold. If you think otherwise let me know.

lol dirty spot

if v had monsters in their range on the flop , hands like 77/55/44 , he will very likely raise it up on this flop texture also they would want to build a pot with these hands. So when they call flop i am pretty much discounting these hands from their range. I also think a hand like 45/75 will be raised on the flop for the same reasons. if they had 68s they may call instead of raise since they pretty much have the the board crippled.


so ya sets are unlikely to be in their range , given the action on flop ott i still think boats are unlikely but given the action on the river i'm not going to fully discount it now and obv sometimes your read can be wrong , you may have thought well it's unlikely that v has a boat here by the river, since most hands would of been raised on that flop, I think better players will get tricky and float these hands on the flop and obv float boats ott. i think you have to be very disciplined to make a fold like this , and these type of folds can be the difference between going far in the tourney (maybe winning it) or busting out. Villains line is definitely super strong.

I think good players are more than likely to raise on these kind of flops but an unknown he might still often slowplay his sets here so I think you cannot exclude the sets from his range. I think two pair is getting raised more likely than sets so I believe if he is not bluffing/spazzing river he most likely got 77/55/44/99, because again a bad player probably calls 99 two streets. I think its a fold, i do see him sometimes calling KhQh type of hands the flop and the turn but i think if you do not have any reads on him having an ability to spazz/or turn pairs into bluffs his value range is almost always going to have you beat, except 3-5 combos of of flushes, could imagine him calling 8Th maybe if he is loose pre + broadway hearts.