Folding over pairs when villain reps sets only on draw heavy boards can't be good

Mad, so u r suggesting that mizzi need to fold JJ on that flop when got raized or call and evaluate call blank turn??
what u do in mizzi spot if u had smth like 76cc/AKcc/AQcc/A3cc or KK/AA

the problem with ICM is it doesn't account for future EV nor takes into account the skill of the table.....a double up can create highly profitable situations for Mizzi he wouldn't have otherwise especially if the table is weak......Im not sure this is necessarily a correct call but to say straight ICM calcs makes this a call/fold is silly.

Yes, Re8uZ, it's an easy fold.

If you give villain just combo draws, this is what you get:

MP2 48.23% 48.23% 0.00% JsJc
MP3 51.77% 51.77% 0.00% 7c6c, Ac4c, 6c4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, 4c2c

Easy stack off, right, put 50bbs on what you believe is a coin flip versus huge draws with two short stacks around.

To people who are saying folding JJ can be exploitable here, sure, but can you think of a hand for villain for this particular spot that he c/r the flop with this huge sizing with after we c-bet into 3 people? He is really gonna press huge c/r in what is an obvious overpair/set/nut fd (we can have sets too, remember) with random cards? On a freaking final table of huge scoop? Where did this ever happen? Why would he ever do it?

it's worse to stack off with draws ourselves, because now villan is going to have more made hands since we block a lot of club combos. AA is better than any overpair obviously since we block some outs for combo draws.

would called turn here instead of re raise his range in EP clearly AJ+,TT+.

u didnt answer what u do in mizzi spot if u had smth like 76cc/AKcc/AQcc/A3cc or KK/AA

This thread shows why you should gamble for a big stack and then run over the nits making correct ICM folds recommended by their software.

Also, this is a good bluff raise/fold spot for BB with ATC. Cbettor can't continue without at least TPTK or a strong draw. Usually, he has over cards or something, so it is a profitable bluff.

yet noone EVER bluffs here with ATC here, please. I am glad though that everyone here thinks that Mizzi's play was ok.

He cbet 4 ways, come on now. Sure, it may still be a profitable bluff for the BB
if he's contemplating folding JJ, but I doubt Sorel is cbetting KQo no club or the like here

Mad...

It's not that people are saying that your ICM considerations are invalid. ICM is obviously a variable that zang and all the other players at the FT should be cognizant of and consider at all stages until HU.

That said, ICM is just one of many variables that a player should:

1. Identify
2. Prioritize/weight
and
3. Process

in the course of arriving at his decision as it relates to any subsequent action(s).

You could argue that zang did not properly weight or prioritize (the variable) of ICM considerations/implications, but it is prob naive to think that he didn't consider it whatsoever. Similarly, I would argue that you are prioritizing/giving far to much weight to ICM (at the expense of a lot of other pertinent variables.)

You seem to be most comfortable operating within clearly circumscribed boundaries, whether it be GTO;ICM; or any other universally accepted strategic guide. In life, you could argue that by operating within the confines of the law, not breaking convention and not challenging the paradigm set forth, your path to success will be less difficult given you will encounter far less obstacles.

Conversely, this tendency to rigidly conform is a leak as it relates to a game of incomplete information, like poker. In poker, anytime you fail to identify, prioritize, or improperly weight (the importance of) a relevant variable, you have made a mistake.

the fact that he shoved jacks suggests he thinks people are playing back light and isn't betting with random overs... whether that assumption is true is impossible to say.

the decision to shove vs call is more interesting than folding vs not folding i think.

ICM may work in STTs with 3 or 4 players left and everything is push or fold. It isn't so accurate in MTTs. Everyone knows there is an advantage to having a big stack at the final table. ICM doesn't take that into account at all, so it underestimates the value of a double up.

wait forgetting icm, this is still never a get in this deep lol

what r u think best play is Cbet call get it on brick turn, or fold now/turn

or best is just to start with checking?

Interesting that he folded QQ in a similar spot earlier

He slaughtered that QQ hand as well, was painful to watch especially after Liv Boiree praised him and said he "blah-blah soul reads and play like a GOAT" and minute later he plays this QQ pretty badly.

The QQ fold seems fine isn't it? Villain can easily flat TT 99 and c/r flop. Best scenario he's up against AKhh/AQhh (which may c/c flop). I would check back dat flop tho

Wow didn't realize how bad it was until I saw the highlights. Just awful.

Once he 4bets and gets called what hands is valuebetting on that flop? Jacks? Whole hand was slaughtered.

He squeezed preflop. It's a 3bet pot.

You are right. I still don't like how he played it. On this texture there are a very few hands (given players' positions and action pre) that are going to go into a check/call mode that you can safely value bet with QQ, especially when you block a lot of broadways with your hand. And it's going to be a two streets affair 99% of the times. So it's infinitely better to delay c-bet it or to induce a stab from a wider range by checking behind otf. Still, JJ hand is worse.

table dynamics tho...

come back here after one year.

p.s. nothing changed