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High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of high stakes MTT hands and techniques

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Old 02-05-2012, 09:37 PM   #1
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SM Line check - River decision facing overbet

Villain in question was running at 17/17 over 20 hands from sharkscoping him he was a hs mtter with small volume on stars.

Poker Stars $200+$15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Blinds - 9 players - View hand 1625865
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: t10734 178.90 BBs
Hero (BB): t9478 157.97 BBs
UTG: t11360 189.33 BBs
UTG+1: t9080 151.33 BBs
UTG+2: t9670 161.17 BBs
MP1: t10000 166.67 BBs
MP2: t10225 170.42 BBs
CO: t9880 164.67 BBs
BTN: t9570 159.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t90) Hero is BB with J A
4 folds, MP2 raises to t135, 3 folds, Hero calls t75

Flop: (t300) 9 A 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t180, Hero calls t180

Turn: (t660) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t380, Hero calls t380

River: (t1420) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t2550, Hero calls t2550

When the river fell I was going to c/c pretty quickly but his overbet threw me off as I really did not expect that in this spot.

Vs a fish I think this is quite an easy laydown but here I think it becomes interesting.

What sort of hand ranges would you think he overbets here with? is he nutted more than he has total air here when he does this vs a random?

When making this decision I just figured him to bet 60-70% pot with his boats AQ hands etc.

Thanks all.
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Old 02-05-2012, 11:17 PM   #2
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Re: SM Line check - River decision facing overbet

He probably thinks you're a random fish with Ax and at this stage of the day/tournament I doubt he's ****ing around too often so I'd go for the button on the left.
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Old 02-07-2012, 12:17 AM   #3
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Re: SM Line check - River decision facing overbet

looks like he wants you to have Ax, and looks from 99/QQ maybe AK, don't think this call is +ev in the long run without some soul reads of some type
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Old 02-07-2012, 01:21 AM   #4
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Re: SM Line check - River decision facing overbet

fold
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Old 02-07-2012, 10:08 AM   #5
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Re: SM Line check - River decision facing overbet

it feels like a boat.i think he have to fold here.we have called 2 streets,so our aj is pretty face up to a decentish player.
hes definatly polorised between monsters that got greedy and hope you cant fold the ace,or a 3barrel bluff thats trying to get you off your ace x.

this deep,could we 3bet and take the initiative pre?
i think i like flatting better,as we are oop but we are so deep.im thinking it might be sexy to take the lead??
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Old 02-07-2012, 10:12 AM   #6
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Re: SM Line check - River decision facing overbet

flop is dry. its easy to put you on an Ace.

That's what you have.

Fold.
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Old 02-07-2012, 05:12 PM   #7
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Re: SM Line check - River decision facing overbet

Cheers guys. Seem like a unanimous decision towards folding
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Old 02-07-2012, 06:13 PM   #8
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Re: SM Line check - River decision facing overbet

jam is better than calling and jamming is bad. Played perfectly assuming you folded river.
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Old 02-09-2012, 08:19 PM   #9
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Re: SM Line check - River decision facing overbet

Quote:
Originally Posted by OurSurveySays View Post
jam is better than calling
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Old 02-11-2012, 08:47 PM   #10
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Re: SM Line check - River decision facing overbet

he knows he has top pair beat, and he is using the second 5 on board to help get his overbet called.
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Old 02-11-2012, 09:02 PM   #11
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Re: SM Line check - River decision facing overbet

fold on the turn.
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