200/400/50, I just moved to this table and this is my first orbit. The villain is a younger kid. I saw him open limp once and fold to a raise when he was in EP and that's all I know. I have 42k, villain covers.
Villain opens in cutoff to 900, i am in bb with 55 and call.
Flop 775r
i check, villain bets 1k, i make it 2600, villain calls pretty quickly.
Turn As putting 2 spades out there
I bet 4200, villain calls.
River Ks completing the backdoor
I bet 11k, villain makes it 25k after a couple seconds of tanking. I?

This is gross, but I think it's probably a fold. The only remotely possible value hands we beat are 64ss and 86ss, and there's almost nothing he could be bluffing with unless he was just floating you to make a small raise on the river vs. your super strong line. I mean, yeah, this is pretty close to the top of our range, but I just don't see a bluff with this line hardly ever.

A guy who limp folds prob isn't coming at you here. Not sure if spades raise vs your river sizing. How do you react to a river shove from him?

I agree with iggy, and idk how much he's even raising a baby flush to this size. So gross but it's impossible to give a random kid who you have nothing on besides open limping credit for being able to turn a pair or turned ace into a bluff here so I think we gotta fold

You see quads or A7/AA here like every time

also think its better FHs or some sdv turned in a bluff but if its limp-folding guy I think youre beaten way more often.

I think your beat always based on your river sizing and his jam. What would V expect you to fold here? He's got A7/AA/K7

With that said I see this as a really tuff fold in game. If you did fold, I think it was a good one

I don't think it's that tough of a fold

Esp given no history or reads.
If you are 200BB deep in the 8th hour at the same table in a cashgame, then its a different story.

Not that easy of a fold when you need to be right 20%of the time against some random kid who likely sucks

+1
Some of them will "float" with AK and vbet top 2 pair there. Anyway its a tough spot - u must gather live reads and if u feel villain might have overpair on flop then slow down OTT/OTR with those two high cards.

yea, and younger kids who limp are probably more of the "tricky" bad types than the straight TAG bad. I think I pay off here, and I love to hero fold.

Why did you bet 70% of the pot OTR? Was it purely value or were going to b/f? I don't think a naked 7 calls 11K and you cannot put him on worse.

From villain's perspective, turn and river can look like very good barreling cards if we were bluff-raising the flop. I like OP's sizing, and I'd expect a 7 to call the river bet ~90% of the time.

I'm not happy about it, but I let it go. I agree with others that your river sizing makes it difficult to raise a flush. I tip my hat to him if he goes after you in this spot and total bluffs you or turns something already made into an insane bluff.

Cant see how i can ever fold this