btn is 3b a lot. 15% on the btn.
BB is a sick. ranked top 1k in OPR for many yrs. up 400k+ in da pokerz. 3b only 4% tho (over 200 hands, not significant i guess? hes laggy overall. 24/17 28% raise first in)

he tanked 4b. shove? we are 3/6 but there is little distance between 1/6 and 3/6

yeah its a pile.

BB probably realizes how much btn is 3betting pre and exploiting that.

6 handed your initial raise UTG doesn't always mean a premium hand so BB is looking to take this down pre.

looks fine to me, i dont mind betting 111,111

Jam it in his face. Don't think I'm ever folding AK pre 6-max.

I am extremely happy how you will all hate this post. Its exactly how i want it to be. I respect in advance though anyone that will take the time to convince me i should be pushing instead by taking very seriously my arguments.




Just so that we properly put things in perspective with AK to not overvalue it, it blocks AA,KK by 50% and another AK by 44%. Thats it. It doesnt eliminate them and when people give us action that 0.25% per KK or 0.25% per AA is easily already 10-20 times larger to begin with. At the same time their QQ,JJ etc pairs chances elevate from 0.45% to 0.5% times whatever enhancing factor due to giving us action.

I am sure i will be hated for this but the proper action in my opinion is to fold here and create the weak image of a guy that backs down that will get paid soon enough when you dont fold and you catch them abusing you. Do not underestimate the probability that exists here if you step out for the 2 to duel it and one to get eliminated or crippled in this hand. That right there is a hidden equity boost that most will ignore. Instead by pushing, you not only enter a risky getting called area that has pairs in it very often, but also save possibly one of the 2 from getting in trouble putting yourself there isntead.

By folding you help them see a bigger available chips pot and possibly help them see a flop or go all in after your fold and then you win anyway!

So before i do any math i have no doubt that there is hidden value in folding and losing that 8k only (2bb). You have not particularly great chances to win here by risking although if it works you are going places but nothing like 3times the equity, probably not even 2x clean by tripling here. BTN and BB can kill each other or one drops a lot and the other guy is 18bb so by folding you will soon have 3 below you at least and maybe right now 1 out completely.


Of course all you guys have a hard on for AKo all the time no matter what the other details tell you and this is exactly how i want you to remain hahahahaha.


Look i have no doubt often enough one was bluffing and had nothing but the positions are such that although 6 handed ranges are far wider, they still need to be decent hands as played.


UTG need to be at least 15%. That cannot be avoided. BTN with 2 to worry plus utg need to be some 7-10% (or whatever 7% real thing and some bluffs (because he is getting called very often anyway so his fold equity is tiny to be garbage bluffs plus he faces a 10% risk the blinds are a 5% hand each). BB now after all this needs to get rid of 2 and thats hard to be a bluff. Why? He risks 11bb to take down 8.2bb. Does that sound like a bluff to you guys? He needs to clear 2 ranges and spends more than what he gets if they both fold. ICM wise its a nasty bs cost/profit ratio with a bluff. Its the real thing. And the real thing has to be better than 7% here maybe 4-5%.

So i say let 7% +small bluffs fight it with 4% plus supertiny bluffs. You will see an all in 50% of the time here or it gets there post flop as they start from some 24bb pot anyway with 35bb back each.

Let them kill each other and know that sometimes you have the better hand or a hand not far behind the best of them ie some QQ,JJ etc but also very often they have good hands that end all in and you stay out of it with only 2bb loss and who cares for it. 2bb loss icm wise is nothing.


I vote for folding here, although i want to do some more math to see if winning it all with an all in even if less than 40% say forcing btn out and having only BB with a super unlikely case they both fold is a better outcome in overall tournament equity. There is some risk they both end all in also against us so it may be nasty with AKo at 25% if both at 4% hands then.


I may be pro push though if i know both to be very loose and frequent stealing sobs/bullies etc lol. But i doubt it here.

Also the tank 4bet is a big hand often for other reasons too. If the guy wanted to bluff he wouldnt be thinking it if he has to do it or not very long. He is pausing/posing like he has a decision because he has no decision, he has a big hand but he wants you all to think he was a bit uncertain.


Let them kill each other. Noway in hell BTN folds by the way if you stay out. BTN may be bluffing you somewhat but he probably had a blocker at least so he will call now the remaining needed simply because the pot is too big and he has position. So either way this thing goes to flop if not all in preflop and someone will lose a lot more than 10bb in this hand and hopefully all of it lol.


So here is my argument. AKo vs even 1 of them is 43% if the BB is 4% as i suspect here. So 43% is garbage icmwise here. Screw it.

Let them kill each other.

Btw ur ranges seem to be way off. I'm opening 24% ish UTG. Btn prolly 3bets at least 10% (can be 15%, the 15% comes from mainly hands that are played FR, in this case UTG = MP FR). BB is risking 10bbs (the BB is dead money) to win 9.5bbs. Good risk/reward ratio considering our 5b ranges is like JJ+AK (3%). Theoretically Both Btn and BB should have a ****in nitty calling range vs my 5b jam. Even QQ is prolly a fold coz I only shove AK KK+ here and QQ has no blocker. So there is a chance btn would fold QQ, doubt the BB would fold QQ tho but he would hv a tough time w TT or JJ, and should theoretically fold TT JJ vs me. And ya u make a good point there is some chance da two big stacks would crash. This shove is +CEV for sure. (Only need to work around 33% of time w so much dead monies out there). But is it +$EV? Like we are gonna get called and lose sth like 20-25% of da time I think.

And another question is: how often does the shove hv to work to be +$EV?

I agree with Masque. Pretty easy clear fold. It's a spot where it's not worth the risk and there should be much better opportunities later. Only time it is a call is if you have been bullied.

tldr after you discussed creating a weak image.
its pile all of our chips in the middle all day everyday.

clear fold 6 max given stat reads and 4better being aware of 3betters frequency?

lawls.

4bet villian is a known winner in these games, you dont think he is aware of how often we and the btn fold to his 4bet? We have his implied range smashed.

not folding with the blockers, def not when bb is a sicko

When was the last time you played on pokerstars?

Oh and OP ye im all in and very happy about it with the reads you gave.

I think by shoving, btn may fold JJ/QQ/AQ/AK pretty much always (if he 3bets these) and bb is very polarized. With ICM dynamic etc it's not inconceivable that they both could be very light here. With blockers, we are printing money imo.

We are printing money faster than the federal reserve in this spot.

lol at btn folding AK QQ

You guys realize that in ICM terms every time you call an all in in these spots (with elimination risk i mean) you need pretty much over 50% equity because chip EV intuition is very far off and its all nonlinear at that level. But give us prizes to tell you better.

By definition therefore every time you raise such a significant amount (11bb is like 25% of his stack) that begs a push you must not be doing it very light to steal some bs tiny equity that is f$%*king asymmetrical to the one you lose when it fails, unlike in many other spots in poker.

So the guy is risking 10bb above his already deposited 1bb as the BB to capture 9bb if it works. That is not 1-1. Because the higher the chips go the lower the equity gain compared with the other way down dropping similarly in chips ie the drop in equity if you lose 10bb is more significant than the rise in equity if you gain 10bb. Here its even worse at -10 vs +9. So its more like in real tournament terms risking 10 parts of equity to win 7 or something.

First of all he will get all to fold less than 20% of the time. He will face a push by the blinds 4% each, the first guy utg some 20% and the btn some 35% and sometimes even 2 of them. The rest of the time he will get a call from the btn likely to see a flop out of position.

So keep dreaming that BB is playing with loose range here bluffing.

He will call you if you push like 80% of the time here. He is expecting it, that at least one will go for it or that someone will call him and he will be forced to play poker. So go whatever and give him A5s or KQs when he is risking 25% of his stack. Right!


Also lol at disclosing anyone who my online poker ids are. All i can disclose is that i have never experienced a downtrend playing poker lasting more than 2 weeks and that at the time i am blocked from playing at pokerstars due to location.

If of course i play with people that i have evidence they disregard such ideas about final table equity nonlinearity and think still in chip EV terms, sure go for it push it as they may be folding more often because they were playing stealing games more often.


Its amazing that nobody cares that if you step out the chance one is eliminated by letting them duel it out is like 50% here. Which is an equity win in its own.

Getting it in w QQ AK would be redic bad for the btn coz I'm only shoving KK+ AK (maybe QQ, just maybe). And he needs to worry about BB. And ICM makes QQ and AK a fold for the btn. He may get in though coz he doesn't play perfectly

you probably understimate how many times those guys could be light. that given they wouldnt consider folding what they think is the very top of their range and how "light" can you be

Don wanna troll u as u are the best mathematician in this forum. Some of ur posts are insightful but not this one. Even if he's risking 10 units to win 7 units, it prolly works over 65% of the time. I would fold 95% of da time (I snap fold JJ here) Btn would fold 70% of his 12% 3b range. Get in or flat TT+AQ. N playing a flop OOP is ok w Kqs A5s 89s coz there are only 1.5 PSB post flop. He can risk 0.25 pot to win a huge pot postflop. And not many players flat wide to see a flop w only 1.5 PSB left to play for in a ICM ****in spot. Personally I don hv a flatting range but some ppl do hv so w/e. How da hell do u know assume
BB would call 80% of da time? I'm jamming a ****in nitty range here and his calling range is like QQ+AK.

Ya in practice the btn may get in QQ AK coz he hates folding lol. But in the end he tanked for 30 seconds n folded guess he may hv QQ AK there lol

Probably a smart thing not to disclose your usernames as you seem to fold in every spot it clearly isn't a fold in the 2015 game. Sounds like you would get exploited in every close spot if you are just going to fold based on maths.

Also dismissing peoples opinions that are actually playing the current games and crushing while by your own admission haven't played on stars in years and have little to no idea on the ranges people play now seems very narrow minded and verges on arrogance.

Poker isn't just played on a spreadsheet thank the gods if it was you might be the best on the world.

"So keep dreaming that BB is playing with loose range here bluffing."

I'll leave the dreaming to you and I will evaluate the cold hard statistics that tell the story.

A+ response.