It's the 1mil gtd $125+100 add-on re-entry tournament at the Bike. 11 day 1s, top 10% itm for $400, 4% of each day 1 advance to day 2. 30 min level blind so it's actually a pretty turbo for a live tournament.

Starting stack: 5000, add-on for 7000 so 12k to start if you add on right away.

I managed to build my stack to 44k when the hand happens. Villain in this hand just sat down not too long ago and hasn't seen him done anything yet. So basically no read on him.

Blinds: 400/800 Ante 100

preflop: MP (tightish old guy) made it 2,000 with 33k behind.
folds to me in co with AQdd (i have 44k), decided to flat
folds to bb who jams for 16k total. PFR folds and now I have to decide whether to stack off or not.

Seems like a standard 20bb stack off but I'm only 42% vs "88+ AJ+" which I think is slightly loose for someone who just sat down and looks somewhat nitty.

So my question is, do you guys prefer to call off or wait for spots where you can manipulate opponents better with lower variance approach later given the description?

I think this is a super easy call. You have to call 14k to win 21.1k, so you need 39%. Against 88+AJ+ you have 46%. He can also sometimes bluff with good suited connectors, making it even easier to call.

Also, this hand belongs in the mid-stackes forum.

sorry if i posted in the wrong forum, I just thought that re-entry can easily make this buy in >$500. Mod, please move it if you think this thread is in the wrong place.

fold is the best option here, is 30% of your now 42k to call. if you can't raise the original raiser with AQs why call an all in for 14 k more. in my opinion you may be facing AK , 77 or better so at best you are in a flip. wait for a better spot.

easy snapcall

snappa nappa

prob not folding ever here.

How does this impact the decision? Thats about 1 advancing per 2 tables if 9 handed. What if others finish a Day 1 but are not in the top 4%? Are they busted out? Not sure I understand your comment here, but if it is a hard cut-off @ 4%, you will need to accumulate chips more aggressively than a normal MTT(?) making this a more attractive call-off.

I agree with most that calling is obv the default play here and (without more info on villain) really can't be an error... however, I still think it's sort-of a "you have to be there" situation.

I've played a couple of tourneys at this Bike series (and play at the Bike pretty often), and there are lots of weak players in these events. It can also be very easy sometimes to player-type/quickly categorize somebody and assign a fairly accurate range to them in spots like this. Some guys will always have you crushed when they shove 20bb here, while others could show up really light. However, most err on the side of being too tournament-life concerned preflop (despite being rather loose-passive otherwise).

If I really felt like villain was basically waiting for big pairs/AK to risk his tournament life, I would just find another spot. The spots come pretty often in this thing.

Furthermore, you have 44K at 400/800... so if you fold you have ~ 55bb stack, if you call and win you have ~ 80bb stack, and if you call and lose you have ~ 35bb stack. There's a much bigger difference in playability between 55 and 35bb (especially w/ 30 min levels) than between 80 and 55bb.

So, basically (despite all the reasoning above)... call off is obv standard and totally fine.. but, if you actually feel like you're beat, I would probably trust the read... I don't think this is a situation so clear-cut that you can't fold.

ummm call

Very good point.

neither play can be criticized too hard without more villain info obv. What are the blinds in the next level? The structure is the only other thing I can think of that would persuade me to call, unless I had some sort of read that villain was spewing.

next blind is 500/1000/100 in 20ish minutes. Hand happened right after 400/800/100 kicked in.

Like I said in the op, Villain came from broken table just 2-3 orbits ago, haven't made a single move, didn't play a single pot. about 40ish year old looking white person. dresses nicely.

I normally would 3b AQs here to get the pot heads up (cuz my table loooooves seeing flops) but I chose to flat here cuz there were couple of 10bbish stacks behind me.

Snap