Curious some opinions on some ICM spots I had at the FT of the PLO $109 1R1A Turbo WCOOP second chance. Spots are especially tough bc many stacks at 3-6BBs with it being a turbo and the ladders are significant.
Payouts look like this:
http://gyazo.com/157f5bd6069bb72d5c9892448ec3b079
SPOT 1
http://gyazo.com/dfd36ab16c395e716b058a13f624d064
Blinds are 50K/100K and I'm UTG with TT52ds. The reason I think this hand is close is bc we actually have fold equity, which we will likely not have again this FT if we fold. We are only significantly ahead of one player, and close stacked with 2 others but we take the blind first. I took this screen capture after I in fact folded, and the BB did in fact get a walk. Technically we were ahead of the BB, the shortie and both players on our left to start the hand.
TT52ds had 55% vs a random hand, and we should fold out all JJ, almost all QQ from anyone but the shortie, and potentially bad KKxx although unlikely. No one without money posted can be thrilled to call us without AAxx except the shortie. I wish there was a holdem resources calc for PLO but I'm imagining we can shove wider bc people clal tighter, and even if this would be -EV in a vacuum, it might be + b/c we retain FE/have fold equity. Once the blinds go up it just becomes "someone shoves, the blind almost always had to call, or at least thinks they do, flip"
SPOT 2
http://gyazo.com/657884ba21f201aeee5a554f32e20061
Again I have a hand that is pretty far ahead of a random hand, and as Dan Harrington might say, I have first in vigorish! I think I would jam this without much though into any equivalent stack, but I thought with the BB having enough chips he can just call b/c he almost always has the correct equity vs my range. A player with less chips may be forced to make an ICM fold bc of the 1BB player to my right who will likely be allin in his BB as blinds were about to go up. For that reason, it might be an ICM fold for me b/c I possibly have no fold equity, or at least very little. Fwiw my hand is a 59.5% fav vs any 4, and and a 56.7% fav vs 70%, although if I thought i had 30% chance of Fold equity vs the BB i'd snap jam. I also thought a reasonable amount of the time SB can jam if I fold and get called and that is good for us.
SPOT 3
http://gyazo.com/365394cb8b84ec21820b42986b7a6b55
Finally, after folding the last hand which I thought was marginal and probably bad in hindsight, I have another hand I sanp shove if not for the 1 BB stack and he flicks it in. He's getting called 100% by the BB if no one iso's. What should my Iso range be here, and should I shove my whole iso range to try and get the BB off his equity? Or should I shove my pairs and flat my rundowns. Should I even be calling any non-pairs? Maybe only A-high rundowns?
Its hard to say how wind the Shortie gets it in here. I'm sure nash would be v wide, any ds, and connected, suited gapper ect ect That said, he has 2 more hands and a lot of players would be tighter than equilibrium bc they are hopping for a confrontation since everyone is short and people tend to get it in (a lot of players make it to FTs seemingly without ICM awareness.)
Interested in thoughts/discussion.
