Long post but I think it looks way better this way
I have arrived at the table ~1hour ago and haven't played many hands, except for maybe two flats + c/f flop.
A) Todd probably doesn't know me neither recognizes me as a reg. He's quite active and we have played a hand before when he opened KTcc UTG, girl flats on the CO, I squeeze OTB to 3x (bad sizing) and he snap flats, flop T83ss both check, I bet 60% he snap calls, girl shoves for 15bb more, I fold aces and he tank-calls (losing to her 88).
B) UTG seems to be good (probably also a reg but I don't know him), and he has raised UTG for the last 3 or 4 orbits).
_________ ________ _________ ________
UTG raises to 1.100k, Todd quickly makes it 2.850k. I have J
in the BB
My hand will be kinda face-up when I flat, but I still think it's the best line. I'd like thoughts on my options here. I think Todd is light a bunch here due to the dynamics I have mentioned, while his value range is probably pretty small. (I was planning to 4bet a wide crappy range there until I looked at Jacks)
I flat. UTG thinks for 1minute and flats as well
. (pot: ~8.350k)
I check, and both check behind. I think it's standard here and I can only imagine Todd checking back his trash hands, but maybe I'm wrong.
I see merits on leading here vs other (worse) players but I'm sure he perceives my range as exactly what it is, and I decided to check. UTG checks, Todd bets 4800 and I call. Thoughts? UTG folds and we see the river:
Todd thinks for ~30secs and bets 12k leaving ~7k behind
His river bet is pretty strong, however I'm sure he knows I know that, and I really think he'd bet QQ on the flop, so we only lose to ~T9.