Pretty interested about Muur's decesion here - would like to know what others think about it. Muur clearly was underdog skillwise to Timex so this line seems rather exploitable and tbh even bad imo. Although flipping for 900k EV is bad aswell but quoting Tom Hall he pretty much had to call after 5b ?
Anyone here like to flat 4b>5b/c /5b/f ?
Could also share opinions on Timex apart if someone wants ? - dont think Muur ever 5b's as a bluff there tbh so he is either flipping (QQ/JJ and MAYBE but highly unlikely TT and crushed by KK/AA - some chops obv too) - why would he ever try to fold out top 7-8% of the hands ?

Copy-paste from pokernews live blog -

Mike McDonald raised to 125,000 on the button with AK, Madis Muur three-bet to 310,000 out of the small blind with QQ, and McDonald responded with a four-bet to 700,000.

Muur wasn't backing down with the third-best pair in hold'em, however, and the Estonian slid out a five-bet of 1.275 million. McDonald tanked for about a minute, then moved all in for 6.73 million. Suddenly, there were over 8.1 million chips in the middle, and if Muur called there would be over 13 million — no other player had more than 5 million at the time.

Muur looked like he was going to be sick. After 30 seconds he started talking to himself, then looked over at McDonald, who was staring straight ahead.

After a little over two minutes, the Estonian folded his hand face up, and McDonald slid his cards into the muck.


Pretty much sickening spot indeed with payouts being
7)$242,020
6)$328,020
5)$447,040
...
2)~1,2mil$
1)~1,8mil$


Really interesting hand and imho the turning point pretty much at this final table - could have been totally one or another way if Muur called there

Muur played it bad. Essentially turning a top 3 hand into a bluff SB vs BTN which is absurd. Obv it's a huge stage a ridic payouts so I am just an observer and don't know what I would do on a huge stage like that. If I'm Muur and I know I am 5bet folding, why not just call the 4bet? It may be because he was desperately trying to avoid playing a bug pot oop to Timex, but in that case why not shove QQ? The worst part about this hand was showing everybody... WHAT ON EARTH!?

lol he thought it was a good laydown *which isn't* when he showed. such fail... can not wait till he is a laughing stock on TV when they show PCA later this year

2mm dead money here and it is my personal opinion that timex is doing this a lot more often with AK than with AA/KK (in addition to them being outweighed combinatorically)

but most importantly its timex we would be putting at risk by calling the 6bet shove so

Anyone saying it was a lolwat terrible fold doesn't fully understand the situation

Not a bad fold. A horrible icm spot that he should have put himself in. when he 5 bets and folds hes turned the 3rd best hand itto a bluff. calling and getting it in on any flop qh or worse and folding on a or k high flops is best probably. Can't really expect mike to be doing this with anything worse than ak

Disagree, he has exactly AK a lot more imo.

agreed, ICM consideration is key BUT... He has to know he is at best the 4th best player at the table (toss up between Muur and Srinivasan for 4th best) so getting it in with QQ against a 6 bet shove from Timex on the button is a great situation to be in. While it's unlikely, I think Timex has the ability to shove TT or JJ in that spot. Knowing Muur is not top 3 best players at the table he needed to take that spot and look to gii for a huge pot.

Couldnt be more wrong. 1010 and jj when called vs range have horrible equity compared to ak. Mike would absolutely not 4 bet these hands. The only reason he 4 bet ak was to 6 bet over a 5 bet bet range that he believes can make nutty folds/ has ok equity against

looooooooool @ timex EVER doing this with TT/JJ

LOL imagine haha. NICE HAND

Muur should have flatted the 4bet or 5bet over ripped if he was going to fold to a 6bet jam.

fairly obv

Ahh, the old 5b/qp

You guys are forgetting how good Timex flips.

It seems like Muur was 5betting just because it seems like the std thing to do most of the time and didn't realize what a horrible spot it is for him if timex shoves. I think he should be flatting the 4b here in the first place, but he has to be given credit for making this fold.

I'm too lazy to make any icm calculations atm, but I'm pretty sure it's a fold for him even if knows exactly what Timex has.

this play is so bad how can he 5 bet fold qq when timex rips for 6m+doubt this is KK AA
what does he do to a 6bet click? Timex rip is awful hate this hand in general

both screwed up

If Muur's 5b/f range includes QQ Mike can't possibly have messed this up unless Muur's 3b range is also QQ+

From NVG

Obsessed with Timex much?

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=185

This seems like a giant leap. If he only calls off with KK+, timex still needs him to fold 80% of the time. This means he has to 5b at least 2.5%, which in turn leads to unreasonable assumptions about how he plays his 3b range vs a 4bet.

muur should 3bet here and flat mikes 4bet

i was rly surprised when he 5b/f