Hello,

seeking help from any satellites specialist on this spot. It was a 5K FPP turbo feeder to the $700 PCA satellite. Top 7 get the $700 seat, 8-12 get their 5K buy-in back.

What's my best play here?

i dont get it? 9 people left and top 7 gets seat and you are shortest with 1.1bb with the average being around 2.5

think this is a call..... with UTG+1 in real danger later

I'm snap shipping.

You should take enough time to high five the dealer before shipping.

I considered this... but decided it being a turbo, no time to waste.

You're in last place with 1.1BB and you got KK with no action in front of you, is it really even a question? I wouldn't exactly label this as a "sick bubble spot" lol.

press fold, and wait for AA... u dont wanna go broke when someone calls you with A2

Im not a sat specialist but it might be closer than some of you think

Still shipping ingame tho

No math needed here. We are in last place and 2 need to bust to claim the prize, therefore we cannot fold into the prize without at least stealing the B+A once or likely twice. We have the second best starting hand. GTO sez button and SB fold all but AA and BB calls any 2. Sorry you lost to the BB special.

It *might* be a more interesting discussion if it was the stone cold bubble as the shorty hits the BB first.

just 1 correction. I made a mistake, top 8 get the seat, it was the stone bubble.

How much time is left to the next level?

2 minutes.

This

You need to know the exact timings. Pretty sure its a fold if we know utg and utg+1 are both forced all in before we are but purely depends on how people are tanking etc. Its probably really close with KK anyway.

User, you managed to scroll 90% of the way buddy, just that extra post and you could have contributed.

Well that's a big difference. If top 7, then KK would have to be insta-ship because you cant even survive the blinds going through you one more time in a few more hands.

However if top 8 make it, then it might be more close, I'll let others post the exact math, and really you could put all data into SNG Wizard and it'll give you an ICM answer. But if you fold, you are banking on the other short stack not surviving the blinds going through him and not doubling up with any 2.

Personally, I wouldn't fold KK in this spot with a 1bb stack and being in last place. I'd rather take my chances with 2nd best starting hand than fold and pray that the other dude busts out first, but that's just me.

@Demonic
It's a shove and "timings" are close to completely irrelevant here, "buddy".

I agree and although it is unlikely people play anywhere close to ICM perfect here, in my satellite experience it is something like 95% likely the BB gets a walk here with these stack sizes. UTG may get a walk next hand as well, and based on the stacks there's no incentive for anyone to get it in and risk another stack making a huge ICM suicide.

So jam (limp may be better IMO) seems correct because you'll be getting it in HU vs an any 2 range most of the time.

I don't understand your statement. How could limping 1bb be different from jamming 1.1bb? Just the psychological baggage of saying "All IN"?

It might get checked down and you lose, so you have one more chance to get there.

gii, if you win u have like 99% to get ticket
when u fold this there's pretty good chance no one bust before u get on bb

If 7 got paid limping is the correct play here. However with 8 spots paid... This is a sigh fold.

Going with it

I seriously doubt that BB won't put you in closing the action for .1bb. The chance of elimination even if you show KK would be worth it.

Seems like a fold to me. Two or three stacks are going to be all-in before you. UTG wont be giving walks to UTG+1 and +2.

I think you misread the stacks or something. There is only going to be ONE stack that would be all-in before OP would be all-in if he folds, the current UTG+1 with 5,959 chips. The current UTG+2 player with 8,442 chips can survive both blinds/antes going through him.

So do you want to fold and hope current UTG+1 doesn't get walked, doesn't wake up with a hand, doesn't win anyway with an any 2 cards random hand when forced all-in? I'd rather take my chances with KK, if I lose, oh well, I was in last place anyway with 1.1BB.

Even if folding, there is still a high chance OP bubbles anyway since there are lots of ways the current UTG+1 stack could survive the blinds going through him.