Party Poker Winter Million Awkwardish Spot - High Stakes MTT Strategy

hoodskier · 02-06-2012, 11:48 AM

Villain is about breakeven through 400 games with a $133 abi

[converted_hand][hand_history]Party, $600 Buy-in (400/800 blinds, 75 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 10 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #11791202

Bilybob88 (MP1): 22,528 (28.2 bb)
Matthias288 (MP3): 17,908 (22.4 bb)
WalleMolla (UTG): 21,946 (27.4 bb)
burgerclub (UTG+2): 13,083 (16.4 bb)
darogio (CO): 10,061 (12.6 bb)
dropadeuce (SB): 44,250 (55.3 bb)
firstgame (BB): 43,485 (54.4 bb)
Hero (MP2): 28,536 (35.7 bb)
juletpat (BTN): 29,796 (37.2 bb)
meJogi (UTG+1): 23,746 (29.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8

8

4 folds, Hero raises to 1,600, Matthias288 calls 1,600, 4 folds

Flop: (5,150) 4

3

2

(2 players)
Hero bets 2,250, Matthias288 calls 2,250

Turn: (9,650) 5

(2 players)
Hero .....

Thoughts?

Vekked · 02-06-2012, 12:11 PM

I think it's a pretty easy c/f myself

jenbones · 02-06-2012, 01:44 PM

vs anything that isn't a float on flop, other than the spade flush draw and 77 we're drawing pretty dead no? We for sure can't checkcall turn.

his flatting range pre: 22-QQ (JJ/QQ less likely but included), KQss, JQss, JTss, T9ss, AJ,AQ,AK(sometimes),ATss?

option #1 c/f
option #2 bet 3850 to rep AQ/AK/AJ, doubt he jams his fd on you OTT and he could easily not bluff river when you give up and check river. If he calls turn we have to give up IMO

**Bond18** · 02-06-2012, 04:39 PM

C/F, and I think he had us before the 5 came off.

hoodskier · 02-06-2012, 04:44 PM

Alright, consensus seems to be c/f. Assuming thoughts on the river are the same?

Party, $600 Buy-in (400/800 blinds, 75 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 10 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #11791202

Bilybob88 (MP1): 22,528 (28.2 bb)
Matthias288 (MP3): 17,908 (22.4 bb)
WalleMolla (UTG): 21,946 (27.4 bb)
burgerclub (UTG+2): 13,083 (16.4 bb)
darogio (CO): 10,061 (12.6 bb)
dropadeuce (SB): 44,250 (55.3 bb)
firstgame (BB): 43,485 (54.4 bb)
Hero (MP2): 28,536 (35.7 bb)
juletpat (BTN): 29,796 (37.2 bb)
meJogi (UTG+1): 23,746 (29.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8

8

4 folds, Hero raises to 1,600, Matthias288 calls 1,600, 4 folds

Flop: (5,150) 4

3

2

(2 players)
Hero bets 2,250, Matthias288 calls 2,250

Turn: (9,650) 5

(2 players)
Hero checks, Matthias288 checks

River: (9,650) 3

(2 players)
Hero checks, Matthias288 bets 7,237, Hero folds

Results: 9,650 pot
Final Board: 4

3

2

5

3

Matthias288 mucked and won 9,650 (5,725 net)
Hero mucked 8

8

and lost (-3,925 net)

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

Elephants_pride · 02-06-2012, 05:29 PM

This Mathiass is bright representative of party donks.
Running 28/18 and peeling wide pre for sure.
But, fair enough, you don`t know that.

b/f turn would be best, if only not their tendency to turn hands in a bluff on wet boards.
And b/c turn w/ reads can`t be too profitable either, since even his bluffs - semi-bluffs would have good equity there.

But probably $640 is too much for him to just click buttons.
And I`m sure he would bet turn w/ Ax and sets for protection, considering 2FD on the board.

Why do you fold river, since all draws are missed, facing that huge bet?
If it`s for value then what range of hands he`s betting it with and what hands does he expect you to call with that he beats?

I`d b/f turn and call river as played.

Chuck Bass · 02-06-2012, 05:41 PM

would play it the same

Jamil11 · 02-07-2012, 01:37 AM

c/f c/f

CoolWaTeR · 02-07-2012, 02:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bond18

C/F, and I think he had us before the 5 came off.

If he had us before 5 came off - wouldn't this be the perfect bluff card? Tripple barrrel with stack in on river?

aseHigh · 02-07-2012, 05:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elephants_pride

This Mathiass is bright representative of party donks.
Running 28/18 and peeling wide pre for sure.
But, fair enough, you don`t know that.

b/f turn would be best, if only not their tendency to turn hands in a bluff on wet boards.
And b/c turn w/ reads can`t be too profitable either, since even his bluffs - semi-bluffs would have good equity there.

But probably $640 is too much for him to just click buttons.
And I`m sure he would bet turn w/ Ax and sets for protection, considering 2FD on the board.

Why do you fold river, since all draws are missed, facing that huge bet?
If it`s for value then what range of hands he`s betting it with and what hands does he expect you to call with that he beats?

I`d b/f turn and call river as played.

this

c/f turn , c/c river as played vs this moran

CaliStyle · 02-08-2012, 06:25 PM

fold river

NeverScaredB · 02-08-2012, 10:41 PM

c/f flop is hot against someone good

mjw006 · 02-10-2012, 12:55 AM

hm, I don't understand the thoughts that we are toast otf. Could someone please elaborate because I am honestly baffled by the suggestions.

dexter · 02-11-2012, 07:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elephants_pride

This Mathiass is bright representative of party donks.
Running 28/18 and peeling wide pre for sure.
But, fair enough, you don`t know that.

b/f turn would be best, if only not their tendency to turn hands in a bluff on wet boards.
And b/c turn w/ reads can`t be too profitable either, since even his bluffs - semi-bluffs would have good equity there.

But probably $640 is too much for him to just click buttons.
And I`m sure he would bet turn w/ Ax and sets for protection, considering 2FD on the board.

Why do you fold river, since all draws are missed, facing that huge bet?
If it`s for value then what range of hands he`s betting it with and what hands does he expect you to call with that he beats?

I`d b/f turn and call river as played.

this seems to read like a poem, i think i'm gonna throw in the odd haiku response

eights are a tough hand
to play out of position
but you still have to