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 06-14-2012, 04:31 AM #1 centurion   Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 133 Odds of AT LEAST 1 opponent having TT+ at 9 handed table This might be a fairly standard question to some MTT players, but as a cash player I have no idea, and I was discussing it with a few good tournament players recently, and no one knew the answer. Everyone had a rough estimate, but the math is actually quite complicated to figure out, so I assume someone has a simulator or something. Question: (as title states obviously): You're at a 9-handed MTT table. What is the odds that at least one of the opponents has TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AQ, or AK? Assume that no players have acted yet (this is relevant because if you're in CO or something and its folded to you, obviously no one has these hands).
 06-14-2012, 04:39 AM #2 veteran     Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 2,419 Re: Odds of AT LEAST 1 opponent having TT+ at 9 handed table Not sure if it's exactly the right answer but close enough: 220:1 to get dealt AA, 220:9 1 person gets dealt AA, multiply by 5 for TT-AA and by another 5.5 or so for AK/AQ, so seems to be close to half the time for somebody to get TT+/AQ+.
 06-14-2012, 04:44 AM #3 old hand     Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,727 Re: Odds of AT LEAST 1 opponent having TT+ at 9 handed table Odds somebody has a TT+: (4/52*3/51)*5 Odds somebody has AQ/AK: 2*(4/52*4/51*2) Odds that no opponents has that = (1-((4*3/52/51)*5+(4/52*4/51*2*2)))^8 or 68.176% Odds that at least one opponent has it = 31.824%
 06-14-2012, 04:45 AM #4 Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 24,919 Re: Odds of AT LEAST 1 opponent having TT+ at 9 handed table Really for probablity forum 4.7% that any one opponent has TT+/AQ+. The chances that on of 8 players has one of those hands is 1 - .953^8 = 32%. Now it is slightly higher, because if one doesn't have it, more likely others do as high cards are live. Also, you own hand could have blockers. In anycase, someone has a premium hand pretty often, so raising or pushbotting light from early position may not be good.
06-14-2012, 05:19 PM   #5
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Soepgroente Not sure if it's exactly the right answer but close enough: 220:1 to get dealt AA, 220:9 1 person gets dealt AA, multiply by 5 for TT-AA and by another 5.5 or so for AK/AQ, so seems to be close to half the time for somebody to get TT+/AQ+.
pretty sure this is correct, that is why you can profitably open raise tens at a nine handed table but you will lose money raising a ten handed Tble with same hand

 06-14-2012, 07:21 PM #6 veteran   Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,085 Wat
 06-14-2012, 08:56 PM #7 centurion   Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 133 Re: Odds of AT LEAST 1 opponent having TT+ at 9 handed table I'm fairly certain its at least under 1/3, and that 1/2 is way too much.
06-14-2012, 09:16 PM   #8
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Re: Odds of AT LEAST 1 opponent having TT+ at 9 handed table

Quote:
 Originally Posted by chinagambler Odds somebody has a TT+: (4/52*3/51)*5 Odds somebody has AQ/AK: 2*(4/52*4/51*2) Odds that no opponents has that = (1-((4*3/52/51)*5+(4/52*4/51*2*2)))^8 or 68.176% Odds that at least one opponent has it = 31.824%
QED

06-14-2012, 09:40 PM   #9
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Re: Odds of AT LEAST 1 opponent having TT+ at 9 handed table

Quote:
 Originally Posted by unrealzeal pretty sure this is correct, that is why you can profitably open raise tens at a nine handed table but you will lose money raising a ten handed Tble with same hand
This might be the worst interpretation of probability in poker I've seen

 06-15-2012, 12:14 AM #10 banned   Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Silver Spring Posts: 13,998 Re: Odds of AT LEAST 1 opponent having TT+ at 9 handed table
06-15-2012, 01:09 AM   #11
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Re: Odds of AT LEAST 1 opponent having TT+ at 9 handed table

Quote:
 Originally Posted by marek_heinz This might be the worst interpretation of probability in poker I've seen
I'd scrap the "in poker" bit of that statement

 06-15-2012, 10:47 AM #12 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: post less play more Posts: 7,906 Re: Odds of AT LEAST 1 opponent having TT+ at 9 handed table I really would like an answer to this question
06-15-2012, 10:53 AM   #13
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Re: Odds of AT LEAST 1 opponent having TT+ at 9 handed table

Quote:
 Originally Posted by marek_heinz This might be the worst interpretation of probability in poker I've seen
haha yeah I was sure it was a level

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Doorbread I really would like an answer to this question

 06-15-2012, 01:50 PM #14 Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 24,919 Re: Odds of AT LEAST 1 opponent having TT+ at 9 handed table To get an exact answer, you would probably have to do a simulation, because the fact that several earlier players didn't have TT+/AQ+ makes it more likely a later one will. Also, it is more likely that someone has TT+/AQ+ if you have 77 than if you have AJ, because with AJ you have blockers.
06-15-2012, 02:07 PM   #15
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Re: Odds of AT LEAST 1 opponent having TT+ at 9 handed table

Quote:
 Originally Posted by betgo To get an exact answer, you would probably have to do a simulation, because the fact that several earlier players didn't have TT+/AQ+ makes it more likely a later one will. Also, it is more likely that someone has TT+/AQ+ if you have 77 than if you have AJ, because with AJ you have blockers.
No I don't think so, at time #1 , when ur utg w/ 77 it is 1 - .953^8 = 32%.

But let's say ur mp with 5 behind and its folded to u the probability is slighty bigger than 1 - .953^5 = x

Last edited by locomi; 06-15-2012 at 02:10 PM. Reason: I think

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