As far as preflop, maybe Tonking was nitty and never light. However, except for being OOP, this is a perfect spot for a squeeze play bluff. The two loosest players at the table were in the hand. I think Van Hoof opened 87o here.

However, Tonking almost always overcalls preflop with a smaller pp. So any light 3-bet should either be trips or absolutely nothing on the river. So Newhouse is only hoping to get called by AK/AQ (AQ may flat preflop), and those probably don't play it that way postflop.

AJ,KJ, QJ are 6 outs. Not sure what "usually" has to do with Newhouses bet here. Obviously he has a lot less to protect with AJ. Im not totally defending his bet, but certainly don't this its awful. He can get called by worse, and I doubt he has to worry about AK c/r allin.

fyp, people might misread

Bet small for protection/value is totally fine
Ott w 1010

I was shocked when he said it was a bluff, I was 100pc sure it was for value alltho I havent been watching enough the last few tables to know how tight there ranges look like... When tonkin takes the line he did I cant imagine him ever folding anything better otr.
Also the jx combos are so unlikely, prolly only ajs, which would be good plan to check back cause you only need to pretect vs 3 outs, betting small with tt is better considering the protection factor.

Tonking was trapping and Newhouse was bluffing.
then when Tonking called, Newhouse hoped he was merging.
but he wasn't.

It's somewhat heartening that the guy who role-played the final table 40 times during the break won it and the dude who smoked crack on a beach came 9th.

value-betting, merging, bluffing....all of these assume he was actually thinking about the hand instead of engaging in a multi-million dollar dick swinging contest.

its obvious he just thought he was a boss....it happens to everyone after out-flopping 6.6k other players.

The way Newhouse snap showed his cards after getting called, and then his face of utter surprise when Tonkin tabled QQ made me think he was value betting.
I don't know how you can be surprised you're beat when you get called there though.

I agree the river bet was bad, but the hand is sort of a cooler. Think Newhouse was clearly betting for value. A lot of people would just CRAI OTT taking the stack a donk line, rather than leaving 40% pot and checking the river. Newhouse usually has some outs, and I am not sure I like him draw cheap with 40% pot left. Tonking probably had a good read on Newhouse though that he would bluff or value own himself if checked to.

This was a perfect squeeze spot, and don't think Newhouse was thinking that much of Tonking's range was JJ+ or that he would just c/c the turn with that. As mentioned, there isn't much that calls the river bet and is behind though.

Newhouse played it conservatively preflop. Possible for him to 3-bet/gii against the LAG Van Hoof or gii against the squeeze. TT is sort of tricky to play there though.

Have you looked at the footage? It was clearly intended as a bluff, the way he shoved so fast, him being super nervous and he said afterwards it was a bluff. Tonkin doesn't have smaller pairs in his range pre much and probably folds overcards on the turn and if not then on the river.

I couldn't tell much from the footage, but you are probably right it was a bluff. Kind of weird, because it is almost impossible Tonking calls with a worse hand or folds a better one. QQ is the worst better hand, and Tonking could also have trips or quads. How do you fold an overpair getting 3.5-1?

Agreed Tonking almost never has a smaller pp preflop. With AK/AQ, he probably either takes a more aggressive line on the flop or turn, hoping he is good, hits, or gets a mid pp to fold; or else he folds the turn or river.

The river shove makes no sense IMO, but think this is a little overrated as a blow up. Newhouse could have 3-bet or backraised and gii preflop or raised the flop and gii.

What does Newhouse do if he 3-bets preflop and Tonking cold 4-bets? It is a difficult spot IMO, because he could be 3-betting Van Hoof light so much.

you fold an overpair if you think he shows up w/ air or pp less than 22.5% (haven't gone back to check the numbers, just taking #s from betgo).

Ranges seem pretty narrow here, and we hold two queens. seeing as how most people think its terribad to jam a hand like TT, you'd be calling hoping he shows up w/ smthg like KQs/AQs more than 22.5% of the time. I don't think he's calling the flop all of the time w/ those hands, much less taking that line ott/otr anywhere near 100%.

seems reasonable to think he's rarely shoving a hand better than AK and worse than Jx.

seems like we should give this player credit for showing up w/ TJs/QJs/AJs some %.

i hope i would not fold QQ to this player in that moment, but i don't think its absurd to fold. add main event final table pressure...

I have seen the footage and I couldn't advocate a value bet in that situation, so it should/must be a bluff. But if you look at the way Newhouse flips his cards, kind of arrogantly, and then his face when Tonking flips, he looks genuinely shocked. Or is that just me!? I don't know what the hell he expected Tonking to flip, maybe he was just shocked that someone would call with QQ there.

Oh the actual turning over of the cards got cut out of the vid in the link in this topic so I guess I didn't see that part, but anyone would be shocked realising he just messed up and got 9th again. Also if you're bluffing with TT here and your opponent tanks forever you may start to think you have the best hand. A bunch of things could be going on here, but calling this a valueshove seems weird to me.

betgo's being coached by antonio esfandiari?

The bet does not make sense as either. I do not know what he was thinking. Maybe someone can coach me on this.

It's not a cooler at all betgo

this is a really tough call for Tonking without some dynamics/reads/etc.....expecting Newhouse to float the flop and go bet bet is asking a lot and he'll have a ton of Jx after the river bet....not a fan of newhouses turn bet and think the river ranges from real bad to pretty good - hard to make a judgement without a lot more info

He's saying if Mark has AJ - QJ, opponent often has 3 outs not 6.

Thought river was a bluff at first, but video REALLY makes it look like value imo.

Edit: Just watched it like 5 more times. The weird smirk right before he flips his hand make it seem more like a sick merge.

yea i just rewatched it 2....he really flips his hand over quick. i think after the tank he felt like he had the best of it and it was some really weird merge

I hate the river bet. Does newhouse honestly think he can get tonking to call with A high on the river after betting the turn.

Its way too much risk imo, payout jumps are also ridiculously huge.

but then again what do I know, newhouse would pwn me.

People were saying that Newhouse was arrogant, but having watched 9 of 13 episodes, I agree it is the weakest final table in several years. Van Hoof and Jacobson played really well though.

nobody cares what you think betgo, run along and grind your $11/18mans