So to make it simple, if Tonking doesn't put AA or KK in Newhouse's 3-bet calling range he should be calling. If AJ the only Jx hand Newhouse calls a 3-bet with? I guess Newhouse is rather loose, but I think he should be folding KJ, QJ, JT pre in this spot.

please to not quote betgo if you want to reply to him. the twit filter only blocks his posts, not when somebody quotes him.

also, newhouse deserved to lose based on his t-shirt choice alone. all the cool kids wear v-necks that fit, not crew necks 2 sizes too big.

Not to be a nit or anything but i literally have no clue how some of u come to the conclusion that newhouse isnt flatting pre w jts/qjs/kjs

It was a merge by Newhouse? Kind of a stupid term, but fits to the situation IMO. Also I think that Newhouse actually is folding Jx suited very frequently. Tonking 3bet from SB and is very tight, so he's 3betting like AQ+,JJ+ and very rarely weaker. I mean it was 9-handed still at that point.

How about a spoiler alert next time re results, iv still got 8 hours of footage to watch! :-/

Yea this

why have so many people said newhouse would always check back a jack when he bet 1010??

seemed like a pretty clear blufff to me on the river.

yes he could easily call the 3bet with JTs QJs KJs.

Jx is certainly in range, but Newhouse's problem is not convincing Tonking that Jx is a plausible part of his range. his problem is that it's by no means the entire extent of his range. his jam therefore has the effect of causing worse to fold and better to call.

Tonking controlled this hand and his opponent from the outset. Tonking's check ott led to everything that happened afterwards. the whole hand boils down to checking the turn to an aggressive player, tanking the check/call, then waiting for the inevitable c/c highfive river. that's as old as the hills and when a particular commentator applauded the jam i nearly puked. the jam folds out all worse and is called by all better.

you could actually hear Tonking telling his rail that he was snapping the river until the J hit, which gives you a fair idea of his perception of NH's range. when the river J comes, he checks that assigned range, realises that he may have got stoopid unlucky but it's no reason to fold because NH is going to rep the 22, the 4x, the Jx, KK+ only a few of which make bare sense to r/c pre at that stack depth against a tight opponent.

great call by Tonking, but he'd set it up ott and there's just not enough reason to abandon the plan. it was too perfect a setup.

how about not opening a thread about a hand played on the ft if you want to avoid spoilers?

^^ he said he'd snap if it wasn't the main are you deaf

And he called original raise n then called 3b

New house is basically only repping Jx and KK+ for value... Easy call considering tonking is at the top of his range after checking turn

Did he actually try to merge with 10 million chip shove into 20 million pot into range that is QQ-AA/AK-AQs? That's pretty moronic.

Disregard my comments about Tonking should barrel the river. I was basing that on the CardPlayer report above that he had bet the turn. Obviously, the video showing Tonking check/called the turn is correct.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpeHZrLDZBY

Total puke spot holding QQ in real time in this spot vs. Newhouse's spazzy range that has a lot of Jx combos that would probably bet the turn. Combo wise if he has no bluffs/floats and {JT,QJ,KJ,AJ,TT}, QQ is only 21.5%. Newhouse could also have the 22 and 44 here as well sometimes.

I don't like Newhouse's line whatsoever but Tonking was in a really nasty spot and provided he was only getting 3:1 on the river plus ICM etc I don't think it's a fist pump call at all. Newhouse is so unpredictable though so I can't blame him for making the call.

Didn't he bet like 1/4 pot ott? Of course he can have Jx ott. It's prob good/ fine to protect v 6 outers with that sizing.

Really easy 3 bet pre vs van hoof open and stack sizes such van hoof will 4 bet a high %.

What does Newhouse do if tonkaa bets 1/2 pot on turn?

aj/kj/qj usually isn't 6 outs + you have implides, really dont think its a good value bet and definitely dont need to "protect" either, also expect tonkin to c/call overpairs sometimesso just a losing bet in general.

dudeoflife- fold?

IMO once Tonking calls the turn Newhouse and any half aware poker player is aware he does not have AK or AQ and I honestly believe Tonking checked to Newhouse because he is a weak tight player. OTR Newhouse knows the only way to win the pot and not be left with 10m is to bluff but he did not have enough to push Tonking off the hand. Tonking is a nit and played probably worse than everyone else at the table. He C bet once and three bet lite like twice....losing all of the money he won off Newhouse by playing so weak tight. He checked the turn on a J424 board with QQ for crying out loud, and he did not do it to allow Newhouse to bluff like Antonio claimed

People on here have been talking about Newhouse calling the table soft. IMO he was specifically talking about Tonking (Pappas Politano and Sindelar also come to mind) , and wanted to play a pot in position with him. Once he got called on the river he keeps his head down and throws his hand in looking defeated knowing it is not good. Anyone who does not look at the hand in the vacuum of the action and knowing how Newhouse felt about Tonking as a nit, and seeing his body language knows that he was trying to rep a Jack. And if he had a J he would have bet small on the turn to fold out big unpaired Aces which is the same thing he did with one pip worse.

I would love for someone to explain to me how having a J vs Tonking's range on the turn is much different than having 2 10's. Tonking either has the overpair or he does not.... Why would you play top pair on the board differently than 2nd pair to the board on the turn? Unfortunately for Newhouse he could have called flop and checked it down and still been left with 15 million but that is just playing results. I don't think it is a bad play unfortunately Newhouse decided to make his move on that hand no matter what instead of paying attention to the texture of the board and waiting for a board with a texture that would fold out big PP's reliably.

I also have a working theory that he might have just said **** it and punted it as a big FU to the industry that made such a big deal out of his back to back FTs

When you have a jack it means 1) tonking doesn't have jj and 2) you are
Often against 3 outs instead of 6

Crushinator cmon man how is Tonking's check on the turn that bad? The only argument I can see is the SPR allows him to barrel barrel for value and put Newhouse in a toughish spot. Once he c/c the turn it's a weird spot because Newhouse should only really bet with >QQ but because Newhouse is who he is and I don't think he jammed TT on the river hoping to fold out QQ+ who is priced in at about 3:1. This is becoming a really interesting hand to me because I think Newhouse's bet was unintentionally genius because if I'm in Tonking's shoes I really want to fold the river based on combinatorics and ICM unless I've picked up some tell, even getting 3:1. Feel free to flame away.

Nice working theory, he really showed them.

Tonking checked the turn to get Newhouse to do exactly what he did. he checked to trap not to pot control.

I do give respect to Newhouse for going for it with full force and not being scared money and just trying to ladder up.. Yes we all agree the hand was played wrong - but who is not making mistakes in this game? gg guy - amazing run - and moving on.

lol

Tonking was trapping unless he is really horrible. Newhouse was value betting, probably not seeing it was unlikely he would get called by worse on the river.