raising flop and checking down any non jack runouts seems fine while obviously suboptimal....but not crazy....obv raise/calling flop is absurd but he's hardly ever going to be 3betting the flop...unless he has the nuts somehow.

also, I'm as tight as they come in the main event, but button vs bb having a 4betting range of JJ+AK to get it in with KK+ is fine tight n super dandy and good for future meta/percieved craziness vs the dude.

i'd just call pre, but 4betting seems fine since he's gonna flat a lot. Just not thrilled to 4bet and then have to fold vs an unknown euro's 5bet. Obviously it's the main so most of the time he's not gonna be light if he 5 bets but you still never know. the 56o hand is pretty mindblowing.

anyway as played, think calling is definitely the best option by far. Can't believe anyone's arguing to raise/call lol...raise/fold also seems weird. I think we should be able to to trust that we'll make the right decision on most runouts based on timing/sizing/live tells (! extra relevant since guy is random unknown euro in mid-20s so prob not super-experienced live) and the fact that we're Ben ****ing Wilinofsky, EPT Berlin Champ and whatnot.

so what happened?

Ok, consensus is we can't fold flop, and mostly everyone wants to flat. We do.

The turn is the 8d. He leads 5500, and has ~15K behind.

So what now?

(Include river plans if you're calling please)

barring live reads call turn soulread river

I will give it a shot, even if this is way out of my league.

Have to push turn. If he had JJ beat, why didn't he check to the raiser? Board is to drawy to flat turn. Have to make draws pay or fold. Don't care if it is ME. Can't play weak/tight. When you 4-bet pre, you had to be willing to play for stacks often.

We don't want to see a 9, 5, A, K, or heart. That is 21 or 46 cards. Add 4, 6, 7, 8, and 10 and it is 36 of 46 cards.

Sorry but i fold flop (as played) and not 4bet preflop. But if i played this way (call 9bb and SB also called or folded arriving at 27bb or 21bb flop) and we had 2(or 1) opponents at the flop as described i will call his donk bet (sb checks i imagine) (only it would be 15(2)/13(1) bb now not 30bb) and might even raise it to 40/32bb if i had a read that this guy is so loose that he bets with worse than QX here often. The raise is nice because it kills all his bluffs usually and defines his hand if he calls or pushes and if he calls buys me easily a check next street very often so that i enjoy a near 8% set opportunity by river and then secure to be paid because he clearly will have QX or better after calling so that set is golden since its rewarded nicely moreover how rare (i have maximized the chance to see it though). Of course if he was the guy that bets mostly QX+ and draws and rarely total air (eg AK or far worse ) also rarely some second pair i wouldnt raise but would be prepared to see river and call most bets all the way unless it got ugly with overcards and he kept betting decent size. You see thats the benefit of not reraising preflop because you allow them to bully bluff or bet their second pairs or underpairs and their air and this makes JJ not such an iffy risky hand to continue as expensively as played.

In my estimation your equity calling this flop as played is no better than 38% and you have only a 25% chance to not see a future bet before your turn to act at river. 75% of the deck remaining i view as bad cards for us that when they come and we face a bet we fold. So its too risky for me with just JJ and overcard and preflop 4bet call followed by donk bet in such early soft long duration per level event that our winrate is huge vs such opponents. I have no problem estimating the EV of calling here is slightly negative we get back 28.5 bb vs paying 30bb with room i am wrong to get up to 32bb and at worse make as fold a -2bb error. Big deal with 260bb left back.

The problem is that JJ post flop is weak here and can rarely improve. We have therefore by having helped create such huge pot placed ourselves in severe risk of crippling stack (19% already used if you call flop which is ridiculous for level 1 with so little) at such soft event so early vs player we dont respect. In fact the thing about not respecting him and the reality that is a bad player that is loose and doesnt care as much as we do about the tournament risk, implies that his errors here work against us. This guy has no problem to continue to bluff all the way to the end (good if we have KK,AA,AQ,QQ etc) with second pair or air and we have noway of knowing if this is bs or something strong and our hand is so weak for such larger by river bets that its undeserving of the game a 290 bb stack can provide for us with comfort for many hours picking better spots. So we have as better players obligation to not make it so easy vs idiots to lose so much. Its like going to war with a weaker country and then suddenly accepting a deal to decide the outcome with a duel of the 2 top generals. Are we kidding ourselves that this is why we joined the event to risk losing over 50% on stupid iffy spot vs people we dont respect???

+1 to mr. Harris's advice of 4b/raise flop and check it down

checking good turns is stupidly expensive. I'm reconsidering raising flop, but if you do, don't check good turns as you are like always ahead with a PSB unless he merge slowrolls you with a bad top pair. Meh, I guess I should add that it's possible to make up for the expense of a free river card if he makes enough mistakes on the river to justify it, but this is risky.

As for turn play given a flop call...

Uh I guess you can call/souldread but jamming protects your hand when ahead and it's incredibly vulnerable with not much behind.

good post except for the bolded.

But he's a coach.

Obviously, this is beyond me. However, I think villain usually misses this flop and usually tries to bluff. Also, he could lead out with a big hand, but his line makes more sense as a bluff. If he is bluffing, he puts a lot of pressure on by leading into OP. It is also hard for him to c/r bluff a big part of his stack or float OOP. However, if he hit, it seems reasonble to check to the reraiser who will likely barrel with AK or missed light 4-bets representing QQ+.

So with the extremely drawy board OTT, but few draws hitting yet, I think you have to push for less than pot. If you are going to 4-bet JJ with a SPR of a little over 5, then you have to be prepared to stack off often.

Actually I wanted to raise/fold the flop but now that I've thought it over you can just call

This is a sick hand because I expect him to triple barrel all of his value range which probably includes worse pockets like tens and even 5s....I think it's pretty crucial to have an idea of how much of his range he is folding to the reraise...if he isn't folding much he is going to have many more draws if he folds a lot he will have a queen more often

I agree that call flop is best play as long as you have a plan on what cards you like because villian will never slow down...I think he will be very wide to the 3bet but not sure about the 4bet

8d is prob safe to call

I'm putting him on AQ at this point..but I'm usually wrong

It all comes down to this basically at best given how marginal the situation at flop is and the reality that a call uses already 20%of stack in that hand with the next bet easily rising to another 20% and another 30% by river if there ; (all this with only JJ and set the only hope)

At level 1 of a slow event with initial soft field (=many hands per level, slow growth of blinds, good winrate at >150bb depth) what do you prefer?

1) 260bb 100% of the time

2) 145 bb 60% of the time or 438bb 40% of the time

Well what do you prefer??? If your wirnate is roughly 0.15bb/hand, sd =10bb/h at these early up to level 8 say situations.

Cant you find another better usage for 145 bb = 50% of your stack all at once or in 4-5 different hands ???

WTF a short reply by masque??????

Masque sux at poker but he is right about the math...equity vs his value range is weak and has no redraws...

Fold call and raise are all close

As played it's interesting because you want a tight pf range on v to continue....the looser his pf range the more equity he holds currently...call if his pf range is tight

Also if you plan to continue from here best is fold/jam or call now call all on the river due to pot odds...you can only flat if you can predict how often he leads rivet

As for flop we know he is betting 100% of turns...so it makes flat the most difficult play but best if you play perfect...but mathwise might be worst