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High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of high stakes MTT hands and techniques

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Old 06-22-2012, 04:11 AM   #31
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Re: My Epic Fail of a hand in WSOP 1.5k Early

PokerZombie when you checked the turn you did it because you thought you were behind? Did the J make you concerned at all?

Question to all what hands do they have when they call the 3/4 pot bet at flop when the preflop raiser that cbets has only 10bb left afterwards and just used 6bb resulting if they call to 8+6*3=26bb pot. Hasnt hero played here exactly like 99-AA so far? So tell me indeed what hands call this? Are we playing with real bad players here?

PokerZombie what were the exact positions in this hand?

I think at 18bb 99 is also open shove preflop if your image is slightly perceived tilted which may make some 77-99,AK,AQ to call you happily in addition to more standard TT-AA,AK or JJ-AA,AKs depending on their positions.

I also like open limp then push any raise and exploit any dead chips called or get a cheap flop multiway or raise to 2.50-3bb to avoid multiple callers and big pot bet requirement by us post flop in the blind out of position vs many. 2.15bb gives all these people the chance to outflop 99 cheaply. You pay them but they less often pay you. 99 doesnt like more than 1 callers in general given that the flop you got is already the minority of cases. You have just ~30% chance to get a flop that either gives you a set+ or no overcard. That said of course one overcard eg T,J is not necessarily a problem even Q,K but it makes things tough so you do not want many on the flop. Hence the limp or raise 3 i think. Limp and then push looks like monster too which may make some hands that raised to fold too.

Last edited by masque de Z; 06-22-2012 at 04:31 AM.
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Old 06-22-2012, 04:35 AM   #32
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Re: My Epic Fail of a hand in WSOP 1.5k Early

I like c/s with like... AK or something where it's not as bad if it checks through. 99 on this board just bet 700 and bet the rest on the turn, get it in vs 55 before bad cards show up, make them fold overcards that otherwise may get there, blabla.
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Old 06-22-2012, 04:56 AM   #33
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Re: My Epic Fail of a hand in WSOP 1.5k Early

Masque I was something like UTG+2. V1 is two to my left, V2 is two to her left.
Open shoving any hand with 18bbs pre ante is a really really bad play, ESPECIALLY with 99, since 88 will never be in a good player's calling range, or a random live nit. You are only getting called with better/AQs/AK and you aren't making enough when it doesn't go to showdown due to lack of antes.

I had all ready limp raised twice. I didn't think doing it again would work. I do like your thinking on that though.

When I checked I was insta calling V1 who is very bluffy and never had a piece of the flop or a bigger PP. My concern was always villain 2, both pre and post. While it is very easy to come up with a range that I am 45% against otf, I don't think he bets that whole range on the turn with 0 fold equity. I really expected him to check through all draws and showdown value hands (and I didn't expect any random floats from him) since he seemed perceptive enough to know my stack is committed.
UNLESS he is just trying to get HU vs me with his draw and get V1 out of the pot?
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Old 06-22-2012, 05:12 AM   #34
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Re: My Epic Fail of a hand in WSOP 1.5k Early

Normally I would go 600 flop, shove turn but after reading the thread c/shove flop does seem perfect vs villains.
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Old 06-22-2012, 06:01 AM   #35
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Re: My Epic Fail of a hand in WSOP 1.5k Early

So V2 is the btn in all this. You have 6 left to act after you.

Yes open shove is only selected if you are MP or something and i didnt say its better than other choices only that its positive and possibly better than min raising for such stack. However since your position is now given as utg+2 ie 6 left to act in a table of 9 if true and without antes, yes indeed your proper push range at 18bb is not including 99 missing it slightly. Its rather; 7.1%, TT+ ATs+ AJo+ KJs+ QJs.

The limp choice with 6 left to act will probably attract raises by some top 8% with only 2.5% real problem and limp-calls from a remaining 20%-8% or wider and of course the BB and 40% of SB. It will generate light raises or dead chips especially with V1 involved very often but will it be often enough? Seems like with 6 left you have a chance of raise of about 40% out of which 14% is TT+ (in a non loose table). Probably safe to include V1 in the call 30% of the time though but the raise is the real important detail and 40% isnt looking very good maybe as UTG it goes to 55% with a bit more dead chips possibility.

But still maybe the 2.5bb-3bb raise is best as it maintains a fold equity for the blinds and still leaves room to be called by some 10% or 15% minus top 5% ranges depending how bad they are.

Maybe the limp works better if UTG in a loose table with late position bullies but not in a nit passive/calling station table. The fewer you have calling or raising possibly the worse it gets obviously.

This is why i asked for the true positions to better get a read on the situation for all involved.

Given your answer it starts looking less likely that V2 has a real top hand and called so late with tiny chance of a reraise from blinds basically wasting value with monsters like QQ-AA or AKs (and very often the other good hands too as reraises) . V1 also doesnt have such hands after her check at turn (or due to preflop) but may still have sets there if bad/trappy style.

Ok the more we know the better it gets and it may take it to a call eventually at turn.
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Old 06-22-2012, 12:38 PM   #36
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Re: My Epic Fail of a hand in WSOP 1.5k Early

With your description of the villains in the hand (esp the lady) I would not be super worried about it checking through.
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Old 06-22-2012, 12:58 PM   #37
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Re: My Epic Fail of a hand in WSOP 1.5k Early

I don't think it's all that bad to try to limp shove preflop as well. It's just so hard to try to make a read on v2 after you give up the lead. I'd be jamming that turn... just because if you check and they both check (which is possible after they both flatted you silliness) and a bad card peels on the river, you're stuck with 10bb, and at all costs you wanna avoid putting in 50% of your chips and being forced to muck.
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