Late on day 2 2/6/12. Hero has 150K. Villain has 55K.

Villain raises to 3K UTG. Villain has been at table about 1.5 hours and has been extremely tight, defended a blind, and called a raise or 2 but gave on flop.

Hero has been fairly active/aggressive. Hero has AKo and calls on the button. BB also calls (new to table), similar stack.

Flop is Kc9d3h.

BB checks, villain bets 7K, hero calls(?), BB mucks.

Turn is 5c, villain pushes 45K

Your move. Also do you agree with flatting before and on flop?

It's a call. You don't beat much, but you're only really losing to Aces and it seems a bit too nitty to be folding for being scared of sets here. He'll have AK here heaps too.

As played,your AK is totally under the radar, so call. Why flat pre and flop when you crush flop if you're not calling his turn ai. If that's your game plan, just fold pre. I don't see a 2x pot bet by villain with set there either. To villain, your hand smells like kq/1010/jj, so he should milk with set.

Pre/Flop Play: Villain stack size is tough to play against. If you 3 bet pre to 8k, his only reasonable 4 bet is ai and do you want to play for 45 bb with AK?? Probably yes to that rhetorical question.

As played, gii on flop so you're not in puke situation on turn.

If he does have aa, nice hand, but you still have 80bb which is fine for this stage of Main.

seems fine and i would call

I think the way you played it is fine. I would often 3 bet preflop, and sometimes raise the flop. But it's good to disguise your hand sometimes.

I would call this all-in.

Against a labeled "extremely tight" player (especially if its an older player) I would play this the same way pre. You are still pretty deep and the last thing I want to do is to have to think about an all in call facing a nit from UTG for 1/3 my stack with AKo in the main. That will most likely be the scenario if you 3 bet.

One thing I would think about is a min raise if anything. If this player is extremely tight and straightforward like you make it sound, then you will get all the info you need with a min raise. They will prob jam with AA and KK (maybe QQ) and call with the rest. You will lose basically the minimum if they jam, and you will probably pick up some strong physical tells in the process (like a snap jam).

If this tight player who has been quiet and straightforward for 1.5 hrs and then makes a decent raise UTG, a 3/4 pot bet on a dry flop, then jams the turn for 2x pot this screams to me that he is scared of being outdrawn (even though the board is fairly dry). He probably is not even thinking about what you have though. He is probably just focusing on his AA or set.

I tend to go with a top 7-10% opening range for nits UTG. The only hands that fit that bill that would act the way he did on the flop and turn are AA, KK, AK, 99 and MAYBE KQs.

The pot is 69k. You need to call 45k. Which gives you roughly 39%. Against this nitty range you are only 33%.

I sound like a nit myself, but in a tournament, in this situation, facing this labeled player, I am folding here.

1.5 hours is not long enough to be sure that this guy is a nit. If you fold this, do you call AA? Its pretty much impossible to have 2 pair in this spot for hero. So then you are really only calling with a set. People get out of line. The villain could have AcQc for all we know.

yeah 90 minutes of folding doesnt mean anything, pretty easy to be card dead and also easy to imagine villains saying to themselves "gee i havent opened in a while, i should open the KJ offsuit here" and then we end up at this turn spot and they're like welp top pair no choice

im not saying thats the logic for calling, the logic for calling is that the sample size of 90 minutes doesnt mean anything so you should get closer to whatever game theory says (which im pretty sure means never folding at any point postflop once you've flopped top pair on this effective stacksize)

No, I am not folding aces here. It has 58% equity against this nitty range and your getting 39%.

And I do agree with you though. 1.5 hrs is not near long enough to make a true judgement, but I am just not wanting to risk 1/3 of my stack to find out in this situation against the described opponent. I would much rather wait until I had a better read or idea of his range(s).

I think the value of moving to 180bb opposed to possibly dropping to 80bb is just not worth it in a situation where you know little about the opponent. Especially if you have a great table draw. If its a cash game or re-entry, then yea snap it off. I would just lay it down here in the main though.

I just think by his actions he is HEAVILY weighted towards a hand that beats us or has the same hand. That hand range is narrow, but we have little to no info to go off of besides 90 minutes of folding and a few passive plays.

Sure he might be spazzing for his tourney life with nothing, but I just wouldn't want to risk 1/3 of my stack to find out. He can have the 6% of my stack and I will be ready for the next one.

Out of curiosity, what range would you put this described Villain on?

This strikes me as an easy call. People bluff, sometimes with silly overbets.

Thats the question. I think you have to put in a lot of draws into his range. Is JTs possible? AQs? Maybe event A9s? Sure, just because we have seen him play tight, doesn't mean he can't open his game. Putting the villain exclusively on sets is way too tight a range.

If the villain is a "nit" then shouldn't we remove a set of 3s and 5s from his range or decrease the likelihood that he holds these?

For sure, I was narrowing his range to KK, AA, AK, 99 and maybe KQs. I wouldn't worry too much about 3's or 5's here.

It's tough to add draws to his range and then to decide how many to add here since he has been so quiet for the last 90 minutes and on top of that passive in the pots he has played.

If I was comfortable labeling someone as passive (and they have yet to prove otherwise) and then they go 3/4 pot on the flop and 1.5x pot Jam for their tourney life on the turn, I tend to give them credit, which may be a leak in my game.

Generally people try to get more value with really strong hands. I don't think this is a bluff very often except for maybe AQ/QJ/JT/QTcc, but I don't think it's a set either. His most likely hands are Kx and AA. Would call expecting to win about half the time.

What Clayton said is of course true, you can easily be a 4/2 and a 24/17 with the same hand selection over this sample.

Villain had T9cc. Thoughts on villains line?

Lol he is a champion at teh pokerz.

Do you have a 3b range preflop here?

As previously said for villain u are very unlikely to have ak.
He blocks 99 which is the hand in your range he should worry the most.
So for him u are very likely to fold when he bets, even if u call he has equity.

The sizing of his bet are weird but at the end he ll end up making u fold better hand than what he holds : If with ak we hesitate to call, i guess we fold kx, jj, a10,...

But u hold ak, u are a level of thinking ahead, u made the right call n unfortunatly he hits the flush on river

Did OP have the Ac? It helps to narrow villain's range b/c then you know he doesn't have the nut flush draw.

AK had no clubs

I'd snap call, you're good like 80% of the time and especially given how you played the hand there's just zero chance you can ever ever fold.

Villain's line seems optimal for having all better hands call and all worse hands fold.

Really? You are calling weak Kings? A9?

I must be missing something.

You're not flatting weak kings or A9 preflop. Only TT-QQ possibly folds, otherwise the statement is perfectly true.

KQ, KJs, A9s? Maybe those are a stretch. Those medium big pairs too.

I wasn't suggesting calling K4o.

A9s and KJs seem like stretching it against a 2.5x with 45bb effective stacks. But yeah the call would be harder with KJ or A9 than AK.

Well yeah I guess I fold QQ-TT. KQs is probably the worst K I show up with here and I'm not folding that ever. With AK it's pretty close to a fistpump imo.