Live $550 hand vs guy betting big - High Stakes MTT Strategy

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Live $550 hand vs guy betting big

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05-28-2016 , 05:20 PM

Gj Gj

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 100

2 day event. Day 1 level 3 blinds 75/150. First time playing with V. He's been very active raising and calling pre flop. His pre flop raises are usually 4+bb and he's been betting really big post flop (almost psb, one small river bet with 2nd straight vs a station, not sure why he chose to bet small against that guy.

Otth

9 handed. Hero has AhJh utg+2 and raise to 400. V is h/j and only caller.

Flop J85r (1025)
H bet 650 V raise to 1300 H call.

Turn 2s (3625)
H check V bet 3100 H call (can we just fold here?)

River Ad (9825)
H check V bet 8500. H?

05-28-2016 , 05:21 PM

Gj Gj

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 100

sorry hero has 22.8k to start hand V about 28k

05-28-2016 , 08:31 PM

OmahaFanatical4

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 5,123

what do you want us to tell you, how this guy who we've never met plays? whether or not he is capable of a bluff in this spot? you had the chance to observe him for several hours, i did not.

05-29-2016 , 03:36 PM

Puddnhead

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 54

Easy call. 9-10 and 6-7 are a lot more likely than a flopped set, which is really all you're worried about. AA is a distant possibility I suppose. You can never fold to aggro guy here though. Aggro guy will semibluff the flop more often than he flops sets.

05-30-2016 , 02:41 PM

NicholasJ

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,761

Combos we beat = 26: 76s (4), T9 (16), J8s (6). We can discount this range because it is not clear he is calling with them and it is not clear that he is barreling 3 streets every time with them.

Combos that beat us = 8: flopped sets (7), AA (1). This range cannot really be discounted.

Even if we discount the first range by 75% it is correct to call.

05-30-2016 , 04:58 PM

PhatPots

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 3,933

I think the river is closer to a shove than a call. There is no way I am folding this.

Otherwise, I like the way you played it.

05-31-2016 , 12:09 AM

busto23

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 2,955

In most $550-aments, given how he played it I'd think he's loaded. I'd fold turn, and definitely river. You guys think he's bluffing way too much from my experience this is pure value most times a set (given sizing.)

When you call turn if river is K, Q, etc. you snap fold? If so, then I think you should fold turn.

05-31-2016 , 09:24 AM

PhatPots

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 3,933

Busto,

If the player was a pro and the buy-in was higher I would consider folding. But given the description that he has bet big in many spots in the past, we have to assume his range is much wider than sets. If you are folding top 2 in this spot, then you are only continuing with a set of Jacks or eights? That is way too tight. You are folding pretty much your entire range.

There are lots of clowns at this level of buy-in.

05-31-2016 , 09:37 AM

zigi

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 651

It's indeed as most hands depending on image and action it's not because he played it like a set he have one.Top 2 vs this villain is a call i believe.If he show a set then just say nh.

05-31-2016 , 12:03 PM

#10

busto23

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 2,955

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhatPots

Quite the opposite a pro in a higher buyin would probably never take this line and if he took it he would be balanced with a good amount of bluffs in his range.

The issue is the min raise + 2 huge bets after. I've played quite a few $500-aments live, and my experience it's almost ALWAYS bladed here based on betting size. There's 10% of times he's bluffing but mostly it's blade.

05-31-2016 , 12:50 PM

#11

Beachman42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 4,365

shrug-call & sigh.

05-31-2016 , 09:48 PM

#12

dontquit

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 214

Dude flopped two pair and is driving it home. Shove the river and scoop your double. Next!

05-31-2016 , 10:21 PM

#13

RalphWaldoEmerson

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 5,954

the only street you can fold is the river, but you'd have to have a solid read to do so imo. two oesds miss, his value range is narrow, we know he likes to bet big = call.

06-01-2016 , 12:24 AM

#14

Gj Gj

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 100

Quote:

Originally Posted by dontquit

Dude flopped two pair and is driving it home. Shove the river and scoop your double. Next!

2 pair is unlikely compared to the 67 or 910 bluffs he can have, so I'm pretty sure shoving here gets snapped off by sets and folds out all his bluffs so is there a real point to shoving?

06-01-2016 , 02:48 AM

#15

zigi

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 651

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gj Gj

2 pair is unlikely compared to the 67 or 910 bluffs he can have, so I'm pretty sure shoving here gets snapped off by sets and folds out all his bluffs so is there a real point to shoving?

I agree i would x/c here no point to shove river.

06-01-2016 , 02:45 PM

#16

hazelasty

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 240

pay that man his money cause alternatives suck

06-05-2016 , 04:53 PM

#17

Gj Gj

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 100

Appreciate the replies, if anyone is curious results below. If anyone else would like to put some input please do it before looking at the results, thanks.

Spoiler:

06-05-2016 , 10:17 PM

#18

DuckU

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,358

Quote:

Originally Posted by dontquit

Dude flopped two pair and is driving it home. Shove the river and scoop your double. Next!

This was my read as well, I put him on 8-5 or J-8, although obviously 5-5 and 8-8 are in his range as well.

06-05-2016 , 11:23 PM

#19

busto23

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 2,955

As I said, bladed.

06-10-2016 , 03:00 PM

#20

Howard Treesong

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,681

Quote:

Originally Posted by NicholasJ

NIT ALERT! I do not think there are six combos of J8s.

I generally agree with the analysis, however, that there are many more combos we beat than which beat us.

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