Villain is new-ish to the table and is middle aged white guy. So far seems on the tighter/ABC side, but doesn't seem to be complete mouthbreather, since only hand I saw/heard was where he said afterward (and seemed honest w/ short tank) that he folded 99 OTB w/ 60+ bigs to a medium stack open in LJ, short stack HJ shove for ~15 bigs.

I'm young-ish looking and might read as decent (lol got'em) since I started the hand with solid stack of ~95BB. We are recently ITM and Villain has ~60BB still.

Villain opens UTG+2 to 2.1bb. I flat 99 OTB. Blinds fold. ~6.5bb in pot w/ blind/antes.

Flop KT9r. Villain bets 2bb quickly, I call with a bit of thought. 10.5bb in pot.

Turn K rainbow. Villain quickly checks, I think a bit and bet 4.5bb, Villain raises to 12.5bb. I think a bit longer and call. 35.5bb in pot.

River A. Villain very quickly stacks up and bets a ~30bb bet (almost 75% of remaining stack). I...?

If it helps with your play I think "villain" considers you to have at least Kx a high percentage of the time, especially after your call on the turn. I don't think he is bluffing but is possible he's "value" betting worse from his point of view Difficult to find many hands though, KQ, QJ combos are pretty much all of them that you still beat once the ACE binks.

He's not bluffing here though so consider that when making your play.

He has TT or turning a hand into a bluff. Just my thoughts though.

Ak is a strong possibility. Checks the turn when hitting trips. A pro will most likely always bet thru, but less experienced think when the king hits to check so he can check raise. Not realizing you have a better hand. A on the river doesn't scare this person at all. Highly doubt there is a bluff here. You just got unlucky river. Even tough to make a crying call imo but in the moment much tougher. Maybe I'm completely wrong 😀

U can t know for sure he says the truth when he say he fold pocket nines. Let say he s a decent playa like u. He make a bet from early pos. That mean he has some decent hand. OtF he bet low a probe bet and quickly . You call good and lure him.OTT he checks quickly and u bet good half pot. He check raise u strong. I think mostly he has some hand like kq kj suited or unsuited. Aa is possible pre and flop but ott i think he doesn t check raise a Tp when is doubeld . Ak is possible and fits he s play both preflop, flop and turn.10.10 ist worst case scenario and u must put the question if u gonna risk your hole tournament on this hand. You must Weigh the factor that both are deepstacked. Ott When you faced a check raise why did u not 4 bet here????? I think there are many other combination of cards that u beat those u are beaten. I didn t say he has KK because i think he would slowplay flop with this and it s harder for him to has Kk because off obvious Kk on the board. OTR a appears and he bets big . Its a value bet practicaly a all in bet. I think mostly he has ak here or 10-10 and less kq kj. I will fold u are still in good shape with chips.

I think he can have QJ quite a bit on the turn but I suspect he'd size smaller on the river. I sigh call river because LOL live poker and I've seen people do way too much awful stuff to fold here without a really concrete read.

i would call without further info (pretty tough for it to be a fold, if he is really overplaying etc sometimes could be a value shove though)
it's pretty much def a call in theory and in practice live ppl do random stuff like show up here with overplays (rarely, but not never a bluff)

Not great spot but I think you have to call since your hand is underrepped. I think V can show up with KQ/KJ just as often as he shows up with AK/K10s here.

Pretty much my exact thoughts.

AK, TT, KK take your pick.
fold and tell him you folded 9s

Agree , I don think he would do this with AK c raise the turn after making his sizing smaller then his Pf open, why doesn't he think you can have qj? Seems to me only hand that makes sense is Tt, but still p weird lineup take when you easily could have qj. I really doubt he is thinking it could be a chop.

Honestly, nothing about this makes sense in any way IMO. I just feel like on the he knows or thinks on the flop when he bets so small he is always getting called, decided to c raise turn to make it scary and board got even weirder on river and he quickly bet because he has no idea what he is doing honestly.
I'm petty big pay off wizard ( when I know they have it ) but p sure he shows up w lots of underpairs in this spot. But usually my mouse hits my forehead when I'm wrong ( or phone ).

Call.

It feels like AK or a bluff, which could include qq, jj, AQ. In my experience a quick bet in a spot that should require some thinking if he had a hand like 1010, qj, KQ,KJ, or even K10, most players are least gonna think before betting those hands, before they do, but AK kk, or possibly AA could fire quickly like that because of his excitment. Betting quick often is a bluff, we tend to speed up when we are nervous and make much faster decisions. So you have to risk 30 to win ~66 that means you need to be right over 45% of the time. I would also factor in, does he have the balls to bluff me and would he bet that much. What is his bluff vs have it frequency.
Answer FOLD
He has it there most of the time

Result?

Tough spot. I mean he can really only have 2 or 3 reasonable hands here. AK/TT/ and maybe KT that beat you. It is possible that he has QJ and he thinks he is value betting the river. I think this is very read dependent. It looks like he has it, but the random spazz factor is strong. I'm curious, if you have TT here do you call?

raise flop

bigger turn, don't think his x/c range is very elastic to sizing

facing c/r ott imo is the most interesting spot bc i think there's a good argument for 3b jamming as opposed to flatting, we want to gii ASAP against AK and to a lesser degree QJ

fold now, he's not playing riv like this with KQ and him opening QJ pre with your reads is pretty debatable (maybe just the QJs combos)

like, almost everything is a call "in theory"

seems terrible idea

Double fist pump gii if it's me