My friend had a really gross spot figured I'd ask the 2+2 geniuses.

Loose/agro pro opens button to 65k who is massive chip leader with 4.5m at 15k/30k. He is probably opening close to 100% and defends too wide v 3bets but overall is aggressive and plays big stack well. We 3bet AA in bb to 205k with a 1.55m stack and he peels.

973r we cbet 200k he calls. Turn 8h bringing fd we c/c 340k. River 7s we check he piles for our last 775k. We?

Payouts are 1m, 672k, 431, 301, 230, 191, 161

One short stack has around 600k the rest of the stacks are between 1.2 and 2.5m (other than villain who starts hand with 4.5)

He told me after the hand that he thought 1010 and JJ were better bluffcatchers and he didn't expect villain to bluff any 8x on river but that he would probably peel all overs w backdoors on flop and his fold to cbet was pretty low.

Thanks for your replies

Whats hero's image? And his ~3b freq pre? If vill does always peel JJ-TT pre, think they are better check backs ott. Think his flop peels have a lot overs/gutters/Ax+bdfd types that increase equity ott. If he peels really wide v 3b pre and has all the JT and 65 combos, its a lot closer, but would x/gii ott w spr ~1. As played, not folding.

This is versus Strelitz I assume? I think your man played it great if he calls on the end. No way ya can find fold vs that villain playing that stack for half pot on river. Turn is interesting, but Strelitz with 150 BBs is going to barrel twice there so often that I'd just x/c twice.

why are you checking turn? this is a rly easy bet for value for a large sizing
as played this is a rly easy snap call since this is the nuts for your range

Checking turn I think is fine to induce vs a player who is more likely to bet with worse than call with worse. Our hand looks like what it is when we fire turn, so I like this line if we never fold. Also this would be more interesting if short stack had like 5bb instead of 20bb.

Because is a really bad card for our range and he has all 2p combinations and straights

I think our image is really important also.
I mean from a GTO point of view what´s our range for x/c turn after 3betting from the BB ?(pretty damn strong i´ll say), and tbh V has to be a really sick one to consider this an ´´easy call´´ otr (don´t know who V is), cus like he has to have some random Tx that he floated flop and now picked up equity/FD or 8x that he turns into bluff, unlikely i say.
Also, about holding TT/JJ, don´t think are better bluffcatchers, cus we block a lot of his bluffs/floats imo.
Gross spot for, in the same time difficult to fold.

I think the turn should be a bet or a crai (Probably best). If hero shoves the turn its just over a PSB. It sucks when he has 98 or 87. By calling his bet on the turn, you are committing yourself. There are a lot of bad river cards. What do you do if a J,T, or 6 come on the river? What happens if the fd hits? By checking the turn and the river, was hero just praying for a cheap showdown?

so think pre is good, Id prefer a larger size as we will want a polaraized range here of some suited junk and also nutty hands as well as exploiting v who will be calling 2 much and wanting to f*** w us alot. I think 220k-240k is much better for our range.

anyway flop bet is obviously fine. We can probably bet our whole range for 200k and think thats pretty good and fine.

turn is interesting for sure, OUTPLAYU is right that this is a much better card for ip, he has a bunch of combos better than aa, assuming he has all 87s, 98s, j10o. So yea think it makes sense to x a bunch, (maybe all of our hands here) Think some software could help us here ott

River has to be a snap though we literally have the best possible hand we can have here and you just have to call. As OUTPLAY says we have our nuttiest bluff catcher- saying that holding jj/tt makes a better bluff catcher shows a misunderstanding of card removal concepts, like outplay said most of villains bluffing range (maybe all of his bluffing range) will have either a j or a t in it. So we dont want to block those hands and decrease his bluffing frequency.

Gross spot. In a vacuum we are calling here since we have no better hands that aren't nuts already. Exploitatively villain (even with his image and everything) almost always has it here. It's one thing to peel wide pre-flop and completely different thing to try and bluff rivers for stacks when villain knows that our rage here is overpairs+.

Another thing is what hands is he bluffing here with? It's gotta be some kind of random 22 or QTo or KJo type of bluff that given his line would be extremely ambitious.

All in all it's gotta be an icm decision at the end.

It would not be out of this world for a loose, aggressive opener/defender to have AJ-QJ/AT-QT overcards that had bdfd on flop, that if they did bet the turn, would be reasonable hands to barrel river. Also, if a he fired the turn with a 9 or a hand like 86/T8, it's not unreasonable to turn these hands into bluffs as they are full house blockers.

I get that many players would never do these things, but villian seems to be aggro chip leader on a massive bubble that goes beyond just ICM w/ the TV aspect (some poeple will put sizable value on this). He's also opening a lot and is gonna to want to defend his wide openings on the flop getting a good price.

Not saying this isn't a puke spot -- villian has an uncomfortable amount of full houses and straights here -- but, if the villian is right, he can have plenty of bluffs.

given ICM i think potting the flop to shove turn is actually ideal with your 3b range. this isnt the flop to halfpot AKo and leave weird psr on turn.

similarly, would 3b bigger pre.

Ya

yup, was a fun hand tho

payout structure pretty flat so thats another point in favor

OP: your use of pronouns is pretty horrible and as a consequence I can't understand your last paragraph at all.

If V is calling three-bets too light pre, I think the response is to bet bigger. I don't think AA is the nuts for OP's range, though, at least until the turn. 99 and 77 and 97s would play the same lines pre and on the flop, no?

The turn and river runouts are tough. As played, I'm very likely calling.

was gonna post about sizings too , seem abysmal in the ****ed up icm spot Hero is

way bigger pre, 230-40, cbet larger pot/slight overpot jam turn

if we decide to x? (not sure this is worse btw, just higher variance) its absolutely to x/c and x/c the best riv for us vs this villain. gg if he has JT/76

gg kiddo, hope you had >30%

This may be true (hard to know since there's really no way to calc optimal postflop ICM lines) but as a general strat it's def sub-optimal. I think it's very difficult to properly weight ICM as a variable when constructing a postflop strat.

OP didn't give any reads with respect to hero's 3-betting strat (appears that 3betting a linear range* from the BB vs this villain would be best) or villain's postflop tendencies, so hard to criticize flop bet sizing since hero could have been inducing/making a explo-play with the top of his range* otf.

In the sim I ran, using 3 cbet sizing options (44,66,100) Pio prefers the 44% sizing with almost all of hero's range and it wants to continue betting AA/KK ~35% (for the sizing villain used) ott, or c/shove - it has almost no c/c range ott. Seems like a decent ICM adjustment we could make is b/f** the turn some % of the time as opposed to c/c; c/decide river vs a villain who is capable of turning marginal sdv into bluffs on bad river cards?

If we get to the river with cbet 200; c/c turn then it wants to call all the AA combos. If we mess around with diff 3bet ranges then AA with no heart can be a fold (and a call with the AhAx combos ~85% of the time.)

With respect to JJ;TT being > bluffcatchers, it's not valid to compare since JJ;TT shouldn't get to the river at anywhere near the same freq (given the fact they they require >>> protection.)

Obv argument against calling is villain's sizings ott and otr generate little to no FE.

*(not truly) Linear 3bet range used in sim:5.66%: AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT:0.5,AK,AQs,AQo:0.65,AJs,AJo:0.25,AT s:0.25,KQs,KQo:0.25,KJs:0.65,QJs:0.65

**with entire range - prob a close to 0 freq with AA combos though

imo the 3bet range you gave him is absrdly wide in this specific situation.

A lot of options suck, but if we bet large otf, we take him the chance to float us (since is a happy floater and it´s a pretty dry board) and about shoving turn, what worse hands are calling when we do that , or is for protection and avoid tough river spots? (*he has all straights,sets,2p that are fh´s otr* in his range and prob pocket 88 aswell, since he doesn´t folds to one bet otf)
What do you think are his bluffs in this spot?
Do you think he turns T9s into a bluff, maybe 98s since he blocks fh´s?
Can he have QQ+(that slowplayed pre) and thinking his vbetting ? (besides straights, trips and fh´s)

As i said above our image is really important, and besides that ´´villain is a lag´´ we have no info on how both played so far/reads etc.
So OP, more info will be great

As played you got to checkraise the turn

Please don't tell me hero folded?

Xr turn is the worst option

One of the ugliest spots, been there done that😷 hm what about check call all the streets against such a aggro player? Yeah i know, on river still same spot same problem...

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Hm at least on flop i would have checked against such a player...

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