Hi guys being a while since i posted a hand so here we go.
As a side note, this is tough mtt, filled w/ regs, as for my table, besides SB/BB they all regs.
V is a TAG reg runing 21/17 over big sample (47% flop cbet and 27% turn cbet) and has a low % aggression factor.
His MP opr is 13%.
SB and BB are both weak players (loose and bad).
Have a lot of history w/ V, and his pretty solid, but overvalues overpairs/big pairs a little bit, even tho i just don´t see to many bluffs here/worse hands.
I decided to post this till turn and see what you guys think of his sizing, and maybe breakdown his range a little bit.
IMO, doesn´t make any sense to me his sizing ott w/ a boat, maybe the nut flush.
Hero is pretty sticky and floats a lot, but knows i´m no fish, and i can def have 33,88,99 here all day, and obv what i have a flopped flush, since i will flat BU w/ a wide range of hands (65s,T9s,JTo and suited,KTs,KQo but also big pairs TT+, wich i will mixing up w/ some 3bets, so i tend to be balanced vs regs) but he also knows i´m capable of making some hero folds also.
So i thought is a pretty sick spot, cus if we call turn , do we call river?
Does he shoves AhAx otr for value? or maybe a hand like AhQ as a bluff?


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $232.24 Buy-in (300/600 blinds, 70 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37597945

MP3: 6,454 (10.8 bb)
CO: 13,894 (23.2 bb)
Hero (BTN): 46,919 (78.2 bb)
SB: 21,874 (36.5 bb)
BB: 66,605 (111 bb)
UTG+2: 9,829 (16.4 bb)
MP1: 8,724 (14.5 bb)
MP2: 35,330 (58.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K T
2 folds, MP2 raises to 1,320, 2 folds, Hero calls 1,320, SB calls 1,020, BB calls 720

Flop: (5,840) 3 8 9 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 bets 2,920, Hero calls 2,920, 2 folds

Turn: (11,680) 3 (2 players)
MP2 bets 8,176, Hero ???

Pre seems ambitious vs. 13% open. Maybe you are sick postflop wizard .

Turn is weird spot because he's supposed to be checking flop a lot on mono board 4ways. Generally I think this line is seen by two types:

a) morons who don't understand range distributions and play very exploitative cbet strats MW otf.
b) morons who do understand range distributions and thus Hero range being strongish here they decide to pile money in with only their nutted hands.

It's tempting to put in a turn raise vs. type a) but I probably limit it to nut flushes+ vs. somewhat tighter opener, especially since we blocking several combos of overpair+fd.

River is gonna be nasty, I guess you get to make some kind of vomit fold when they practically show you their holdings with this ******ed line.

Well, since SB/BB are bad i expect him to open much wider than usual (and no i´m no wizard, but i handle myself pretty good givin profile and think the flat is pretty standard tho )
I guess he could go for a thin vbet otr w/ QQ+ but i expect him to check somewhere, wich didn´t happen, or at least choose different sizing.
So i call, and river is 7 and jamms pretty fast

On the turn: There are only two combos of better flushes: AQh and AJh, 3 combos of 8s, 3 combos of 9s. So in total 8 combos that have you beat. I think there are way more combos that are protecting AA, KK, QQ, JJ and some bluffs with AhKx, AhQx, AhJx --> call

On the Jam on the river however... I think he would check/call His overpairs and only bluff hiss missed draws. I would call him off. You can show up on the river with overpairs and sets which you can fold, but the second nut flush should call.

*edit: thinking about it: Would he shove with his nut-flush on a paired board? I don't think so... It is either the boat with 88s or 99s or the missed flush. Given the odds, I call

Bump !
This hand still bothers me, since is played vs a reg that I play a lot.
Some more replies will be appreciated


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Nothing else to do but call. Pre is fine. 3b could be good as well

Kinda waver between flat/3-bet pre. Flop is fine. Think we're calling turn with our flushes plus our boats, but interesting question is how deep in our range we call here. Are we calling all of our overpairs with the intention of folding to a triple barrel on the turn if we don't improve? Can we fold some of our weakest overpairs (i.e., maybe like 99-TT without flush draws) on the turn?

Thx guys, i ended up folding tho


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I think your read that he overvalues big pairs/overpairs too much means you have to call down here. He sounds potentially bad at hand reading and will not put you on as many flushes/boats as he should.

Wtf u folded turn?

What do you do otr?

snap river with a quickness (you have sooo many other hands to fold)

lmao yeah bc he can never be opening A wheel hearts here

Like what?
What do we even beat?

I'm new here, so go easy on me, but why wouldn't you have raised him on the flop? That would have been my move, unless I'm missing something.

Agree, but like what bluffs do i have on 983xxx that i can balance with? JTs (cus i don´t flat JTo) or like QJs, maybe a hand like AhJx, AhQx? cus i dont´ flat A rags (A7o etc. i prob fold pre ATo ) so not that many combos.

Again I'm new and don't play high stakes so go easy on me but shouldn't you be raising the flop for value? you might not have many bluffs, just the Ah maybe but you're gonna get sets, overpairs and A high flush draws continuing. Surely you should be raising and taking control of the hand, that way you can check some turns like the one you got and evaluate the river? Just feels to me like your hands under repped