oops, missed this post. Do you really think the bolded actually means Joe is aware he's -ev and his deals are -ev for investors?

Bear Jew,

How is it that you know what JT's ROI was in a tourney in 2006? What about a tourney in 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, and projected into the future? Recall yourself saying he hasn't played a statistically significant sample, so good luck giving me an answer on that one, even though you've thrown out numbers in previous posts which now act as the basis of your argument.

Also, I hardly think anyone would consider a light hearted interview in between hands during a tournament to be the book of the lord as you've so referenced. It's obvious JT had little to say during those mandatory interviews so he just cliched his way through it.

Its obvious to me Bear Jew that you've never had a bad day in your life. I'm sure every day you wake up you play better than the last. We can all aspire to one day be as good as you, almighty bear jew. Until then, you'll just have to live with the JTs of the world.

This thread got pretty aidsy.

No, earlier Bear Jew said he had a losing year. That is why he is so mad at TJ winning with so much less talent and selling shares at a markup.

Joe Tehan voluntarily shows nearly every hand he plays at live tournaments...you might think he's a +ev play but buyers should probably recognize that someone willing to expose information without cost may not be a good horse to sink money into.

HAHAHA Wow your logic blows my mind. Sit out next time you have a big stack, you'll do better.

I actually specifically said I thought it is wrong to actively pursue selling action in a shady/misleading fashion. I've seen kids who are surely +EV sell action on marketplace and show up wasted/hungover/half asleep, which IMO is much worse than taking a deal that might be slightly bad for the buyer (WHO IS AGREEING TO IT!)
Much different than some rich dude(or anyone else, really) thinking yer the bees knees at poker and saying hey I'm rich and wanna gamble on you and offering you some great deal, IMO.
And FWIW, as ridiculous as you may find it, when I used the 100k example, I was assuming myself to be +EV to some degree, but since such tournaments don't happen frequently, it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to figure out a random winning player's expectation, thus making it pretty hard to know what would be exactly "fair" for both parties.

but the rich guy will get the exact same thrill if you sold him at 1.2 vs 3:1. the scummy part is that you are aware of this and are ignoring it to profit off of someone who doesnt know anything.

To many banana dealers like Dfish, not enough like TBJ and Clayton. This is why sacks always be short!

Everyone here does realize that staking is a business, right? Just as in any other business, someone is gonna get the short end of the stick more often than not. If someone voluntarily wants to invest an exorbinant amount of $ in a business that seems unlikely to succeed, does that make the business owner a scumbag for taking the opportunity to get lucky? There is a difference between intentionally misleading someone into making a bad business decision, and taking a business opportunity that is voluntarily offered to you based on accurate information (tournament results, yearly numbers for a small business, etc), even if that information may not accurately reflect long term results.

If Tehan was going to call Jaka's open shove with K6 (but flat or fold to an open) then I think Jaka played this hand optimally.

Yea, knowingly seeking finances for a business you know is likely to lose money is scummy, lol.

This can't be stressed enough, this is supposed to be a community. i think you have to be quite the dirtbag to knowingly rip off your peers. Take away the community aspect and I'm fairly indifferent.

Didn't realize this would stir up such a craze gentlemen! Say what you will about my play, that certainly won't bother me much. You can disagree with many of my decisions & I'm sure when looking back on some later, I'll wish I had done a few things differently. After 8 years of paying taxes as a professional poker player, I'm comfortable taking all the bashing you guys can dish out. I did want to clarify the fact that I didn't have any of Faraz's action. I also had no intention of scamming any investors. I have had some of the best players in the world buy my action for these events. So maybe they're clearly insane & so am I for putting up thousands of my own dollars into these events (and others), or maybe I'm doing something right. Whatever the case may be, I do not appreciate people saying that I'm trying to scam the marketplace, etc. If you guys saw half of the hands that I have done some stupid things with (like the 42 hand), you would bash me even more. Sometimes they work, other times... Not so much! If you don't like the way I play, simply don't buy the action. There are billions of transactions that go on everyday in the world, and people don't buy something if they don't see the value in it. Do you really feel that you are the governing party to decide who buys what? If you're upset that people won't buy your action at a certain price, maybe you should rethink your own game. Thanks to everyone who's had a few nice words to say about me in this thread.

If this is an attempt to attack my character/integrity/honesty, you shouldn't waste your time. It's especially funny you use this example because I have hooked up numerous friends w bananas when they come to Florida, and if anything I go out of my way to make sure they are taken care of.

Also, just so you guys know, most small businesses DO fail, so how can you suggest it would be scummy to seek funding for something that is widely known to be a high variance gamble?

I mean, let's just be honest here ... most people bashing you ITT are just upset that someone as terrible as you has been hit so hard by positive variance, while they have not been so lucky. I have leaks for sure and I want to improve, but it's pretty undeniable that I have run way below expectation in live tourneys. It's also pretty undeniable that you have way more leaks than I do, but you've won more money than I have because of some live binks. Considering the abuse you've taken in this thread, you have handled yourself well. Considering how lucky you have been for someone who has been making arbitrary/ gambooly decisions for eight years, you should have expected this kind of abuse.

You guys need to realize that live tourneys are lol and there is no long run and running above or below expectation is just whatever. Dwelling on "how below EV" you run, or even having that thought in the active part of your poker mind is only going to hurt your bottom line and hold you back from your full potential IMHO.
My point is, everyone needs to stop taking tournaments so seriously, and ffs don't try to rely solely on them for a stable income.

I'm assuming you mean live tourneys?

I think good business ethics is explaining to the rich guy what you think his expected return on his investment is. If I did anything less I would carry a lot of guilt, and I don't want that.

I would only take the bad deal if the rich guy is fully aware of the implications and still wants to do it because he likes me and wants to approach it more as a gift/gamble than an actual investment.

Ummm, seriously?just because a lot of businesses fail doesn't mean they were a -ev investment.

There are 2 issues here. *Knowingly* selling action that is -ev and unintentionally sell a -ev package.

I don't think anyone thinks accidentally ripping people off is scummy. It's debateable whether one should point out a deal is -ev in the thread.

Fwiw, I see no reason to think this joe guy is knowingly scamming anyone and the tone of a lot of posts are way out of line.

I kind of think this whole debate is stupid because anyone who buys action in the marketplace and doesn't perform the due diligence necessary to ensure they are going to get the reward they seek for the risk being taken is an idiot and deserves to lose money. IE deciding to purchase shares on the basis of results, especially live results where literally no one has a sample of significance.

I think there are few people who are a good buy at 1.2+ in a 20k where the field is small and comprised of many very good players, including guys who have been playing really tough online tournies and high stakes cash games with solid winrates, and the format changes which gives additional equity to the very best players. How many players in a given EPL field realistically have a 30% ROI? 40%? Of course there's additional equity to be gained through the added money and million dollar freeroll, but there can't be that many big winners in these tournaments.

It doesn't seem like he is scamming anyone intentionally; rather, using results as the indicator of value in the package rather than true skill. When you say things like "I have X-amount of cashes over Y-buyins in live tournaments" as if it's an indicator of ability that demonstrates a lack of understanding of probability and anyone with even a fundamental grasp of variance is going to dismiss that and/or (rightfully) berate you for making such a foolish statement. Obviously math ain't everything, and in live poker there's a lot of other factors that play a role, but when most of your opponents have the grasp on math that you don't seem to have combined with a feel for game flow, image, etc. in live poker, where are you deriving your edge from? When you try to make someone fold who is pretty much never, ever folding, and you do it with a hand which has minimal equity when you get called, that raises eyebrows as well. Vanessa has boobs and a good personality and likes poker. She can get a stake for whatever tournament she wants, if not by the myriad of sponsors who want their logo on said boobs, then by a hopeless (albeit wealthy) romantic or someone with someone with money who feels she is a good spot in whatever tournament she wants to play. She probably doesn't care much about the mincash and if what is said about you showing lots of hands & playing crazy is true she has even less incentive to fold in a spot where she's already getting a great price. Not only that, but by winning this hand she sets herself up for a deep run, complete with media coverage and a chance to win a prestigious high buyin event, as a woman in a male dominated sport, further removing incentive to fold even for her tournament life. And when you sell action to a very tough, small field, mixed format tournament at a higher markup than you did package with three softer tournaments including a 10K where your ROI is almost guaranteed to be higher than that of a given EPL main even with overlay and freeroll equity, that raises eyebrows as well.

While it's hard to disagree with Stealthmunk, I don't think there's any reason to be so mean about it. There are plenty of fools in poker who think they are good because they won some money playing tournaments, and there are plenty of fools (even some of "the best players in the world") who are eager to buy action. No one is holding a knife to the buyers throat forcing them to plunk down the money. If they are buying action without doing the proper research, that's their prerogative. People who make mistakes due to ego or ignorance are the reason poker is profitable.

Yes, obviously with online MTTs you can actually have a big enough sample size in a short enough period of time to realistically expect to have a somewhat steady income.
When you factor in expenses, rake, taxes, and variance of live tournaments, you should easily recognize the absurdity of taking them seriously as a primary source of income, unless maybe you are one of the select group of people who grind like every live series including prelims.

Anyways this thread got super off track, and I'm not sure there's anything more to add to the actual topic of this thread. I think we're all in agreement that 24o is a bad poker hand and Joe made what is almost certainly a bad poker play, but does it seriously matter?

- Good players seek the marketplace for investment opportunities that are good for the player and the backer, and if the good players are invested in, then the market is healthy.

- Scam artists seek the marketplace for deals that only benefit the player and will lose money for the backer. Longterm they will be losing investments. The more money investors sink into scam artists, the less healthy the marketplace.

- Most investors are fish at identifying good investments.

- Good players want to see the marketplace thrive so they will always have buyers if they want to sell action. If scam artists run rampant, good players will have lost good business opportunities.

- Therefore, it is in the interest of good players to police the market and announce/villify the scam artists.

- Stealthmunk is the hero gotham deserves.

I think it's run its course. That said, people need to be made aware if someone is selling at a high markup and then playing horribly.

Hopefully now marketplace investors are aware of Tehan's "stock".

I agree, but saying "lol ur an idiot" only encourages posters like pghfan to come in and say stupid things and next thing you know there's a big pow wow of clowns who are missing Stealthmunks point and are just looking for an opportunity to say "lol u suck x 1000". You can call someone out for being a bad investment without creating those kinds of situations.

Don't think JT was intentionally scamming anyone, but kind of funny. If you look at his stats he looks good with 2 major tournament wins. Can't see how he is +20% expected ROI in the EPL. Just shows you need to know the players.

Major live tournaments are huge variance. The donks somewhat make up for the expenses and possible taxes. Of course you can make a living playing live tournaments, but usually a lot of lower stakes ones.

Just because someone has 2 major tournament wins, one in 2006, doesn't make them good. Only an idiot would think that.

Nice post Clayton.