Seems completely absurd....but maybe I am just too stupid to undestand.

________


Faraz Jaka moves all-in from under the gun for 68,000 and Vanessa Rousso then raises to 120,000. Joe Tehan then asks Rousso how much she has behind and proceeds to move all-in.

Rousso looks around and says "Five handed, I don't think I can fold this."

She turns to Jaka and asks "How do you feel about this?".

Jaka replies with "I am just having fun watching."

Rousso then announces call and they turn over:

Jaka - AA
Rousso - QQ
Tehan - 42

The flop comes down 964 and Jaka maintains his lead with Rousso still ahead in the side pot.

However, the turn is the 4 and suddenly Tehan has a huge lead.

The river is the 10 and Tehan knocks both players out with trip fours.

With 12 players remaining and now in the money, play has concluded for the day.

Tehan - 1,142,000


______

Not sure of blinds.....but Vanessa started with 300k total (and had already put in 120k) and had around average stack (several were shorter).

His line looks ridiculous strong obviously and knows she is capable of folding without the very top of her range apparently which I bet he is right and is only risking 8k against Jaka if he believes Vanessa is folding 75% of the time because oh how strong his line looks. If she almost folded QQ he is right in his assumptions. What were the blinds by the way?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

931,493,376 games 0.539 secs 1,728,188,081 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.519% 24.25% 00.27% 225923796 2469384.00 { 42s, 42o }
Hand 1: 75.481% 75.22% 00.27% 700630812 2469384.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

I understand that if she folds, he is basically free-rolling (wins 52K from her, puts in 68K to win almost 140K pot vs Faraz).

Just not sure if she is making it 120k and folding(from 300K total) anywhere hear 75% of the time....

When she calls, it is a pretty large disaster (think blinds were 2.5K/5k but un-confirmed) with the 42off.


Like I said, I may just not be sharp enough to understand.....

Vanessa iso raised 40% of her stack. Her line looks stronger than a flat or push to me. Seems pretty bad when all you can do is isolate and 42o doesn't play that well against Jaka's range. Guess maybe that's why Vanessa wins a lot: men trying to push her around.

I doubt that. I kind of just feel like he thinks she folds there either more often than she actually does or he has played with her so much he has seen her fold in situations like this enough where he is confident she folds close to 75%. I'm not sure how to work out the #'s since they both have Jaka covered and he has both covered but it brings the percentage down quite a bit of what she needs to fold. Maybe 65%, but hopefully someone can do the math to show what % she needs to fold for this to be a profitable play.

Does seem reckless though

Tehan like 27% against Jaka's 14xBB UTG pushing range, so he is way behind the 2.2-1 or so odds he is getting on the main pot if he reisolates. His expected gain is about 40K if he reisolates. His expected loss is about 150K if Vanessa calls.

Lol if you think she is folding 80% of the time. Great big stack bubble bullying.

Blinds were 2K/4K, Faraz's shove was 17-18 BBs.

Faraz shoves 18bb with AA with at least two idiots to act after him with piles of chips (lol nh)

Vanessa decides to minreraise instead of flat her entire range (lol nh)

joe tehan decides to shove 42o (lol nh)

EPIC players indeed.....these are the BEST OF THE BEST

they all are very lucky to have as much money as they do very blessed ppl not so good poker players

should probably throw in that vanessa tanking after making it 120k.....for good measure.....and talking it up with number 3...

^ lol best analyses in the business.

players first.

LOL great post, that being said I do find these fields to be pretty tough and challenging overall. That display though is one of the worst I've seen, everyone just went 0fer on decisions. Complete trainwreck

I am not sure Tehan reisolates 1% of the time. Think VR likely only does this with hands in the range JJ+/AK and maybe not all of those.

The open push for 18xBB on the bubble is absolutely awful. Not sure VR has to flat her whole range, but the minireraise with QQ just sort of turns her hand face up. I wouldn't mind her pushing AK/JJ maybe QQ.

Faraz' play is fine. If players are going to open-shove UTG for 17 bigs with hands like JTs then those players have to balance that range by also open-shoving with AA from time to time. Plus it was on a 50K bubble, so that's probably the main reason he opted for the shove. If he standard raises then he could get 3 calls, and then he has little wiggle room to figure out where he's at on the flop. I know he's a pro and he can stomach AA getting cracked there, but it wasn't your everyday bubble. With the jam he's aiming to trim it down to either stealing the blinds or getting a single call from someone with Ace-paint or a pair... both of which he's fine with heads up. (just don't call me with 24o!)

Vanessa should've flatted, but her play does have some logic to it. She wanted to define her hand as being extra strong so that, in her mind, someone would have to have AA or KK in order to 4-bet. But the problem was that if she had AA or KK then everyone knows that she would just flat the 68K, so she took those hands out of her range by min-raising.

That's what drove Joe to make the massive shove with any two. He knew her goofy min-raise was with the intent of probably folding to a 4-bet covering shove, so he decided to take her up on that offer. He's getting insane pot odds if Vanessa folds there due to the dead money, and he must've convinced himself that she's folding >90% of the time. It backfired, though, when she woke up and realized how bad it is to fold Queens in that spot, regardless of the bubble component, so she made the call anyway.

Joe clearly looks foolish but his play does make sense when you factor in his chip stack, the line that Vanessa took, and her conservative nature. (ignore the hole cards though...)

jesus f christ what am i reading here

This analysis is as bad as the play of the hand. You don't need to push AA on the bubble for 18xBB to balance other pushes. You should be pushing middle strength hands and it is OK if people know that.

Also, I don't know if he shoves JTs for 18xBB on the bubble UTG. This looks more like a medium pp/ big ace. Problem is you only get called by hands that were going to reraise you anyway.

If you were going to balance with AA, you shouldn't do it on the bubble. Some of these spazzy aggros will likely try to resteal on you or outplay you with your short stack.

It is unlikely you get several flat callers at this stage of this tournament, but that is actually good for you since you only have 18xBB.

Tehan obviously interpreted Vanessa's play as meaning she was folding to a cold 4-bet, but it actually is more likely she has a big hand and is not folding. Think she also is aware that big stacks can get aggro on the bubble. The problem with VR's minireraise is it looks to much like she has a monster. Don't think she misplayed the hand as badly as the other two players though.