Quote:
Originally Posted by Farmer Ted
Faraz' play is fine. If players are going to open-shove UTG for 17 bigs with hands like JTs then those players have to balance that range by also open-shoving with AA from time to time. Plus it was on a 50K bubble, so that's probably the main reason he opted for the shove. If he standard raises then he could get 3 calls, and then he has little wiggle room to figure out where he's at on the flop. I know he's a pro and he can stomach AA getting cracked there, but it wasn't your everyday bubble. With the jam he's aiming to trim it down to either stealing the blinds or getting a single call from someone with Ace-paint or a pair... both of which he's fine with heads up. (just don't call me with 24o!)
Vanessa should've flatted, but her play does have some logic to it. She wanted to define her hand as being extra strong so that, in her mind, someone would have to have AA or KK in order to 4-bet. But the problem was that if she had AA or KK then everyone knows that she would just flat the 68K, so she took those hands out of her range by min-raising.
That's what drove Joe to make the massive shove with any two. He knew her goofy min-raise was with the intent of probably folding to a 4-bet covering shove, so he decided to take her up on that offer. He's getting insane pot odds if Vanessa folds there due to the dead money, and he must've convinced himself that she's folding >90% of the time. It backfired, though, when she woke up and realized how bad it is to fold Queens in that spot, regardless of the bubble component, so she made the call anyway.
Joe clearly looks foolish but his play does make sense when you factor in his chip stack, the line that Vanessa took, and her conservative nature. (ignore the hole cards though...)
This analysis is as bad as the play of the hand. You don't need to push AA on the bubble for 18xBB to balance other pushes. You should be pushing middle strength hands and it is OK if people know that.
Also, I don't know if he shoves JTs for 18xBB on the bubble UTG. This looks more like a medium pp/ big ace. Problem is you only get called by hands that were going to reraise you anyway.
If you were going to balance with AA, you shouldn't do it on the bubble. Some of these spazzy aggros will likely try to resteal on you or outplay you with your short stack.
It is unlikely you get several flat callers at this stage of this tournament, but that is actually good for you since you only have 18xBB.
Tehan obviously interpreted Vanessa's play as meaning she was folding to a cold 4-bet, but it actually is more likely she has a big hand and is not folding. Think she also is aware that big stacks can get aggro on the bubble. The problem with VR's minireraise is it looks to much like she has a monster. Don't think she misplayed the hand as badly as the other two players though.