The river range given below makes the following assumptions:

1. Given an EP open with eff stacks, villain will be 3-betting a polarized range consisting of something like {TT-QQ; AQ+ some suited Ax + maybe some offsuit broadways that aren't good enough to call with.}

2. Given that villain does perceive hero as always attacking capped ranges, villain can c/b FDs and AA;KK;77* otf. This includes the FD combos** with no s/d value since they can't cont vs a c/r and betting them has very little FE since hero removes a lot of the air from his range when he checks this texture.

*77 is obv a bad call pre vs a 2.6x open from EP with 24bbs, so discount/eliminate accordingly. Same goes for offsuit brodways like KJ;QJ.

**there aren't many FD combos for villain if we assume that A2-A9 and 87;89;T9 get folded or 3bet pre.

It's hard to know how villain interprets hero's stab ott but he really shouldn't continue vs this sizing with many hands that are folding river (w like 3/4 PSB behind.)

{KK+,99,77,KJs+,AhJh,QhJh,JhTh,KQo,AhJd,AhJs,AhJc}

Vs the above range, we have 46% equity if the K otf isn't a heart/54% if it is a heart. Obv we can tweak this range and add hands like 8x8h;TxTh and some offsuit KJ combos if it seems too tight. If we shove we are risking 12k to win 15.6k, so we have to be good 43.5% of the time to b/e.

If we c/call, I don't believe that villain will ever bet worse for value and he can't really show up with many hands that need to bluff + he would have to know that he has close to zero FE on this river card. So if villain only ships his value combos and checks back his 1pr combos c/call is a slight loser.

Bottom line is the > mistakes villain makes pre (by calling too wide) the more we can exploit/take advantage of the dynamic and shove b/c he will have more bluff-catching combos. If he adjusts properly by tightening his range pre and checking back the flop, then we prob shouldn't shove here.

who ****ing cares? how do you ever get here with this stack size??? yeah it prob IS a check fold which should illustrate how ****ing dumb this line was from the beginning


unless you know he has every offsuit non AK broadway combo to have a combo draw heavy range ott, but you posted it so i doubt thats the case cause you wouldve snapped and said cooler vs 99

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWPsGV3HpZQ

booooooooom

c-bet

My 1st instinct says it should be a shove otr... but I'll do a little math

The break even point should be:

0 = Folds*(15400) + call w/ worse*(39400) - Calls w/ better*(12000)

As the folds we get won't matter that much for this situation, as we would win the pot anyway from the hands he folds, lets disconsider it:

0 = call w/ worse*(39400) - Calls w/ better*(12000)

So it all gets to the combos we are losing vs the ones we think villain may pay us out w/ worse.

Lets assume a pre flop range for the villain close to what Kidcardiff said but w/ weight of 35% for QQ+ that the villain may be trapping and T9s/89s. So the range gets like this [JJ-88,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-A9s,KQs-K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs,[35]AA-QQ,T9s,98s[/35]]

Otf we could assume villain bets some of his flush draws, as a lot of players would to attack your capped range w/ a lot of equity instead of capping his own range, but as the flush is a big concern on the hand lets assume he checks behind all his range.

Ott given the dynamics you pointed, I'll assume he calls your bet with a pair of 9+, nut flush draw and 2nd nut flush draw.

Now we get to the As river. Given the initial range, there are 9 flush combos, 3 99 combos and 0,35 combo of each AA and KK, so lets consider 1 combo for both. It comes to 13 combos that beat us.

Going to the formula:

0 = w*(39400) - 13*(12000)

w = 3,95 -> which means if there are at least 4 combos on villains's range that he calls w/ worse, our jam we should be making a profit.

If we take a look at villain's river range there are 6 combos of top pair w/ AQ/AJ and 2 combos of 2 pair w/ A9 and K9 that have some showdown value and he is also capable to call you down w/ come Kx hands that are 9 combos of KQ(7), KJ(1), KT(1), especially w/ the dynamics and if the A is a card that we are perceived to bet as a bluff.


Maybe my math or my assumptions are wrong, so if it is please let me know lool