Villain: Thinks I'm super spewy, has seen me just call somebody all in with 3rd pair and was wrong. Has seen me not fold rivers a few times. Thinks I try to go all in when people are capped.

He's a German reg, knows who I am online but wouldnt tell me last time we played who he was.


400/800, I make it 2100 from EP w/AKdd, he calls the button, blinds fold

Flop: K72hhx.

I have 17k total. I think about things and decide to check and call down. He can value cut himself or just blow up. I would also c/f this board a lot too with my perceived image as he just has pairs alot and won't believe me. If he doesn't bet then I can pot the turn and then shove the river and he's going to know he's capped on the flop at having like QQ right? So he will call me down super often imo.

I check, he checks.

Turn: K72hhx 9h

I close to pot the turn (5k into 5.6k) which obviously nobody ever does but I think my line looks so FOS and he has showdown so often when he checks the flop and will fold turn less than 20% of the time and super often call the river too imo.

River K72hhx 9h As

I'm lost.

Jam vs what range?
C/f vs what range?
c/c vs what range?

Wouldn't he expect a player such as yourself to bet c-bet a flop like this? When you check it shows strength imo (think you're on the wrong level). Shove the river now. You're reping bluffs and you would shove this river with them. Let him bluff catch. I think it gets checked back to often for you to induce a bluff by him.

Ch/c river without Ah, don't pot turn

Also, your hand really looks a lot like some kx, so he'll pbb perceive toppair as the nuts, and will turn some pairs into a bluff

Because he has such a small valuerange, we only need like a couple of Ahxx combos to make it a call already. Also ch/f our whole range seems really ****ed up in this spot.

I c/c and jamming river are pretty close to same. Maybe something like JJ-88, KJs+, QJhh

What is this fvckery !? Jam all day (re-read your op, I think the answer is there)

gimme a profitable range to jam against

...

Why can't he call you with KQ on the river when you jam? First you tell us you have no fold equity and then you flop a good hand and try hard to put no money in and try to look not bluffy at all.

which hearts are on the flop ? how has he played so far, any showdowns ?
has he flatted vs ep before ? has he flatted and got to showdown vs you before ?

did you see what his 3b range looks like, at any point before ?

Or I can guess a random range

btw, if your guess about him not folding 80% of the time on the turn is true, a ch/c on the river can never be bad ofcourse

-His preflop range i feel should be strong, weighted towards AQ/AJ/KQ, KJs/K10s/K9s/QJs/J10s, 88,99,1010,JJ (lets assume he 3bets QQ+ AK)
and maybe has some 109s-98s.
-He most probably does not expect a player of your image to ever check/fold this flop. Especially repping a strong preflop hand raising EP from shallowish stack.
-He will expect you to C-BET all your air
-So i feel he will probably not fold to one bet on this flop, may decide to float some of the hands hes missed with aswell.
-Bet flop, get value from Kx, floats, and flush draws, then re-decide turn as double barrel may look too strong.

As played, im lost too. It feels like he must have Showdown value by calling turn bet, which makes me want to shove rather than check/call.
Villain shouldnt turn sdv into bluff often as you re turn bet sizing polarizes you, so cant see many bluffs in his range when you check to him.
Check/folding seems weak as he should bet XhXh hands on flop some %

I feel like as played hes really likely to show up with Ah-Q/Jx alot, as well as 88,99,1010,JJ. So can we consider changing our plan now and betting 5k/6k on river and so more likely to get value against this hands, and I suppose bet/folding?

also, what happened with this line of thought ? once he checks flop, are we really worried about a flush that much % of the time ?

i think if he bets flop and this is the run out i def def def call down. but think his range is different when he checks back flop and calls pot bet ott. his only real floats then are AhXx if hes jamming that i can never fold, but i assumed he would check it back :/

I noticed theres a huge piece of important info missing: stacks ?? any discussion is pointless now that I think about it without stacks

not cbetting the flop is extremely bad, its a dry board that you would bet with a huge % of your air,and you have one of the few hands you can actually vbet 3 streets with.

OTR I'm not rly sure the best play but it is either check call or shove. The only hand that beats us is 99 or a set/fd that checked back fliop, which is unlikely because most of your flop check range does not fold to a bet, and cannot call 3 streets.

Given that most ppl won't bluff there ThThx type hands I would tend to just ship it, and hope to get called, particularly in a live a tournament where I think hero calls are more common.

does he need that much a value range to call us with history and image? all he needs is a bluff catching range in his head?

how come every single post on 2p2 that starts with "super spewy image" progresses to checking tp2k+ on the flop as the pfr?

sort of an interesting discussion regarding what having the Ah does to your decision making here.

on the one hand, if we have the Ah we take a lot of hands that just made top pair out of his range since a lot of the AX he gets to river with is going to have the Ah in it. this may mean our hand starts to have more value as a bluffcatcher than a value shove.

on the other hand, if we have the Ah he has far fewer combos of heart flushes so we're valuetowning ourselves a lot less frequently when we shove.

your thought process is hilarious

bet the friggin flops

this

He has 17k on the flop.

I don't know why this isn't a super easy jam, he can call with KJ or better if he doesn't believe you. It obv depends on how wide he is preflop with these stacks etc, but I'm pretty sure shoving > c/c in almost any scenario, and the only other option is c/f if you think he's got a tighter range and won't vb worse much/won't bluff.

Think this river x/c > shove for obvious reasons

What kind of bluffs will pads have with this line? Not much, so we won't got hero'd much either.

C/c vs what range though?

Obvious reasons though.

Given our line, our hand will mostly be perceived as some kind of kx ax type of hand whenever we check river. When villain is thinking this through, he'll realize his pocket pairs (the few he has at least) have moderate sd value and could decide to bluf them, but he'll also perceive his ax (esp since he only has strong ofsuited aces in his range) to be kind of the nuts when we check the river to him. So if he valueshoves (ato) ajo aqo with the Ah, and decide to bluf a few pp combo's, a x/c is already superior to a shove imho since we almost never get blufcatched on this runout, and lose to his nutted range anyway.

Basically the only bluffs we have on thisrunout, is like QTo - QJo (with preferably the queen of hearts). We pbb don't open 100% of those combo's, might flick in a cbet sometimes as well, so if villain is a thinking player, he should realize his kq kjo hands are pretty worthless too. It just became such a weird spot by polarizing the turn so heavily. I think villain might even get away frome some ace x when we shove river.