Parx WPTdeepstacks hi-roller satty. 52 runners, 6 seats and 33 left when this hand goes down. Utg opens I have 24k at 1200bb & decide to just call with AKcc as he's an older guy with a really tight utg range and I don't wanna flip if I don't have to. Two more callers. Flop 679. Checks around. Turn is a 3 & it checks to btn, who is a younger big stack(50k) who is pretty active and moderately agro. He bets 5500 into 11kish. Fold fold and I'm last to act heads up. What's our play? There may or my not be more to the hand just want to get opinions street by street...please give thoughts on why we are taking a certain action. Also, I know I could just 3 bet gii pre but didn't for reasons described, so just go from action on turn.

I'm guessing the 3 is a club? The graphic isn't showing.

As played it's a fold if the turn was an offsuit 3.

( ) interesting spot

why are we folding Joe? what hands in his range are ahead of us right now vs what hands in his range beat us? A6, A7, 33 are in his range that beat us and of course the stone cold nuts 108dd, and possibly 78 but the last two hands along with all 9's and 1010, JJ bet the flop when checked to on a wet board no? but I think there's a lot of broadway hands Ax hands and diamond draws that fire at an abandoned pot here ott. So if we flat, we don't want to see 's 5's,10's or 8's otr. Is this flawed thinking? are there too many bad river cards to continue?

We also don't want to see Q's or J's otr but these cards he most likely will check back for tp pr showdown value as opposed to going for thin value from 88 or Ahi

I appreciate your analysis and breakdown of the hand....this forum is sorely lacking in that department. However, your opponent could be weak and still have you beat (55, 44, any kind of 3, etc.). And if he has broadway cards, he may fire the river and put you to the test.

There will be easier ways to get chips down the road, I promise.

If he is a young agro guy I don't see him checking if he rivers top pair with a Q or J.

you're right i missed the A3(only 3 he has here) and 44 and 55 but I think the only of these hands that bet would be 55 possibly. But I go ahead and flat and the river is 7 I check and he snap ships...call or fold?

Pre you should 3bet suited version more often and just flat offsuit AK more often.

As played, fold turn, it's not even worse discussing. It's not even close. Also, if you called and he is pushing almost any river (beside some Kx maybe), we should be snap mucking.

Ok if we can eliminate all 9's,over-pairs, 2 pair and sets from his range ott as these would've bet the flop on such a wet board then his turn betting range consists of 35 combos I'm behind and 86 combos that I'm ahead:

Behind
22(6)
33(3)
44(6)
55(6)
88(6)
10d8d(1) as he would most likely bet flopped straights without blockers
A7s(2)
87s(3)
A3s(2)

Ahead
A2s(3)
A4s(3)
A5s(3)
A8s(3)
A10(12)
AJ(12)
AQ(12)
AK(8)
KQ(12)
KJs(3)
K10s(3)
QJs(4)
Q10s(4)
J10s(4)

So I ask you Mad1Lee, how is this not even close when I am getting 3-1 on a call and and by this hero friendly range I am a 2.45-1 favorite. Also, I don't think he shoves river when blanks hit because he has showdown value. we can discuss river next, but does this villain turn range seem correct to you? If so seems a fairly straightforward turn call.

Just 3 bet shove don't be a nit, is still way to go to win a seat, and if now it's the moment to flip I'll take it


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Thanks outplayu27... come on man

Why are we not shoving 20BB with AK after an open?

just noticed that i left out A6s(2) and 56s(2) combos out of his value range...which makes 39 combos I'm behind. Doesn't skew the math that much

I generally prefer a three bet with AK in that spot, although depending on stack sizes, player ranges, seats up for grabs, & players left, a call could definitely be understandable, if not more optimal. If I have 20bb and an old nit with a very tight range opens at the halfway point of a satty, this could be one of those exceptions worthy of a call.

I think what you do ott really is range/player dependent. As played, after the action checks thru otf, and turn to the active semi-lag, he should be taking a stab with just about 100% of his range in this abandoned pot. On that board, no one is checking flop and turn with any set, straight, two pair, overpair, or even top pair hand. So none of you should ever be strong there.

So then it becomes a matter of villain's range.. since your hands are pretty face up, I think we can include his entire range. Your range seems reasonable. We would have had to be there to really analyze that part of the equation, however, the beauty of these live sattys are that so few players play them well. Especially as stacks get shorter. Although villain's range SHOULD be tight to call an utg and utg+1 open, you'll often see them show up with any ace and any non-suited broadway, which are even more combos than you include. So for that reason, I think his bluff to value ratio is way too high just to fold turn IMO. I might still fold if there are 12 seats with 28 left, because we can find spots not nearly as tough.. but here with 6 spots up for grabs, I think you hv to play to win still. And a call looks like it will win a lot more than a fold will. I'd call & evaluate river and player. If I do, I'm calling any river that's not a ten, a five or a diamond. I'm also looking for physical reads.. something that can be underrated in spots such as these. I just don't think we should fold when we beat so many more hands than we lose to. We can't nit our way into these at this point so we have to just make +EV decisions.

Further, if he bets river, his hands become even more polarized. He'll probably bet turn with 22-55, 88, A7, A6, but shouldn't be betting the river unimproved with any of these. He's also not likely to have a strong hand that checked the wet flop 4 handed, so two pairs sets, & overpairs are also not in his range. So that leans me even more towards calling down here.

OP, have you considered just 3 bet gii pre?

Maybe I was little bit to harsh, but we should take the most +EV play and applied it, and is at standard as it gets.
What's our position and what's UTG stack? Does SB or BB came along, besides BU?
To disagree w/ MadBroLee, I actually don't mind flating a strong suited Ax here and play postflop (and possibly induce light 3bets/shoves where we can call or backraise shove) esp if we have good reads on our opp, and shove off suit combos , cus it plays like horse **** in multiway pots, not closing the action.
As for "what to do" ott and river : I'll fold cus we have little equity and we might be drawing dead already.
As played I'm tempted to call, cus he's repping 33 or 7x and maybeee T8s we're he decided to get tricky with it, but I would've avoided this spot in the first place and fold turn


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I agree with this first part. I'd be more inclined to shove AKs and call AKo, as Mad1Lee stated. Also might be more inclined to flat if I'm significantly ahead of the avg stack size.

However I disagree with the second part of this. I think turn is more than worth discussing, for reasons I stated already. I'm not sure why you're folding when we beat so many of his hands, and we're more likely to get river checks with medium strength hands.

You said you called and he snap shoves river which was 7 His timing is very suspicious. I'd say that makes it even less likely to be thin value, so I think he's nutted or airballin this ****. Especially since it's not a , a ten or a 5, I'm very likely calling. Also, I'm calling turn to call safe rivers for sure, and evaluate scary ones. The total equation looks like we're good much more than we're not w/ a chance to more than double in a satty. I call.

super easy shove pre

and I ask you, man (or woman), how on Earth did you come up with that bluffing range? Don't you see that's it's not even overoptimistic, it's totally unrealistic?

First of all, he has no AK/AQ there, he 3bets them. Second of all, noone ever bluffs that much. Like ever. Most of the hands you have mentioned stab the flop, some hands fold pre, some just give up. And if you assign him this ridiculous bluffing range, then include some pairs turned into bluffs too (like 65s/64s, some weird A6s/K6s) and overplayed 9x hands that we lose too.

Also, didn't notice your stack size, at 20bb your move is to shove or fold except spots where you trap with KK/AA against weaker unsuspecting players.

Not wanting to flip is not enough of a reason to deviate from the standard, good player of going allin preflop. There's a reason players are standard, they are clearly the highest EV. You also are not considering how substantial it is when you shove and every folds and you had a huge % of your stack without showdown.

You didn't mention positions but on the turn you fold of course. It's a 4 way pot and you dont have anything.

I don't think it's unrealistic at all. Have you played in these live sattys? This range can easily be accurate. I wouldn't be surprised to see an even wider one of A2o+ and JTo+. Agree that he three bets AK, but not necessarily AQ 100%.

You're right to worry about pairs turned to bluffs, but I don't think those are likely to snap shove river. I also agree that he should 3bet pre, but he acknowledged that, and we're discussing post. I also ask, if it's a 100% 3 bet pre if the avg stack size is 7bb's, and utg nit seems to have a range of 99+ & AK? Not that applies here, I just think it's a bit closed minded to not factor in some these things, and just make blanket, "only way to play is to do xyz" statements.

I also agree that he's not always going to bluff those hands, but does he have to, for us to profitably call? I think if we're just making good decisions, we def 3b AKs pre, we usually 3b AKo pre, but if we decide for whatever reason to flat, then the decisions post really should lead us to a call on turn and river. Of course this is very dependent on villain's range, which is where we disagree. I easily fold turn if i think villain doesn't have all of those.

Looks like I'm alone in my thinking here, but I think you were right to call turn & wouldn't fold river. Not so sure about the call pre, unless there were specific reasons to.

They were heads up ott