Hero is chip leader. About 1 table away from the money.



Results:

Nope.

its close....

...between a fist pump call and a standing up and dance call

ill go with the fist pump usually

Do you have enough in your time bank to rub one out real quick? If not then just click call.

To be slightly more specific, you're closing the action against a 13bb push for less than a third of your stack. The guy is pushing with all kinds of aces, including any suited Ax, as well as a bunch of kings. There is no planet on which you should fold this, not ever.

If not, you can just get hard and click the button with your dick.

you have to call AQ here too

Thanks. So it doesn't matter that villain only played 8% of his hands so far, that's it's the bubble, that the chip leader is in the BB and that villain knows his shove represents less than 1/3rd of the BB's stack?

What range are we folding here?

What range are we putting V on? 88+/ATs+/AJo+/KQs ?

You didn't mention stats. Do you know if villain is a reg?

He is pushing into 3 players he has covered on the bubble. He can represent raise/decide or raise/fold, so he may not push AA/KK. He can expect his push to be called tight. AQ is probably still a call.

Take a look at 10BB push-fold ranges. He can expect MP3, the button and the SB to have very tight ranges, but you're a different story. I don't think you mentioned the 8 per cent vpip in the op, and I guess that changes the analysis somewhat. It's hard to imagine villain folding AT suited or better or any pair. ICM considerations don't seem to me to really be in play yet as you're a table away from cashing and there are several very short stacks, but that's just my instinct ... some ICM guru please weigh in.

By ICM I mean we can coast into the final table pretty much where the payouts are wayyy bigger than a min cash. We could've just chipped up little by little to have a healthy FT stack. Then again if you had the choice between risking a by bubble vs a top stack at the FT, would you not take AKs against even th tightest range?

you didnt mention 8%...but its still a call

and now youre not mentioning after how many hands is that 8%?

I don't remember honestly.

If that 8% number is valid over 200+ hands and representative of his play, then you're up against the Nit of the Century. If he plays fewer than half as many hands UTG, which is plausible, then his range is likely JJ+/AKs and not much else.

But that's such a freakishly low VPIP number that if the sample size is smaller, I would suspect he sat out a few rounds or went card dead for a long stretch and didn't feel like fighting it.

Call unless the 8% is so well documented that you need a unique strategy (aka fold) against a unique player.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

554,786,496 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
8%	44.49%	214,544,184	64,614,972
AxKx	55.51%	275,627,340	64,614,972

We only need 14576/33502 = 43.5% equity, and ICM doesn't affect you that much given you're a big stack here, so anything above 45% equity should be a pretty easy call. As you can see, easy call even against a very tight 8% range, AKs still has 55% equity. AQo against that range has exactly 45% range, so even if you're playing against the "nit of the century" it's still a close decision.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

246,571,776 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
4%	54.30%	105,547,188	56,681,832
AxKx	45.70%	84,342,756	56,681,832

Even against a top 4% range (TT+,AK,AQs) we have the right equity to call off, and villian obviously is much wider than that.

Ah, but the whole point of the thread is to get us thinking about whether Villain is "obviously" shoving with a range that conforms to the rest of society (in which case it's an easy call) ... or whether Villain is some sort of deviant that must be treated differently.

In the end, we're not that far apart, even if I'm trying to make more room for the Nit of the Century thesis. Putting Villain/NOTC on a 4% range UTG is about as extreme as I can go. (If he's this nitty, he's likely to continue to play extra tight in early position (ABC Poker) rather than rethink his ranges as the blinds go up and shove/fold becomes a bigger part of his strategy.)

The second half of your math models all of this this just fine. Thanks for running the numbers. We don't know enough about Villain to tighten the range any further, and we probably don't even know enough to feel confident in modeling anything as tight as 4%. I'm ready to decide that the Court of Poker Justice has ruled, and that, beyond a reasonable doubt, there's no reason to fold this.

OP are you going to call 88+ but fold AKs?

Would you have posted this spot if you hit a K otr?

Not sure that I've ever seen someone so preoccupied with ICM...esp in situations where it doesn't apply...

I'm not calling 88, but 99 maybe.

The whole point of this thread was the ICM factor. Of course AKs has the right equity to call. What if we were like 12 remaining and Hero can coast into the top 4 almost without a sweat whatsoever but losing this hand would mean Hero will have a smallish stack at the final table?

Here we are not at the FT bub but since it's a HS Turbo MTT, the difference between min cashing and the FT is just a few more tables.

When do we stop prioritizing chip accumulation vs survival and moving up pay jumps?

No

It is an interesting question the value of the chips you gain here versus the value of the chips you lose. I am not sure if anyone knows the answer, and it probably depends on variables such as the tournament structure and your skill level and style of play.

There is a big ICM effect at this stage, but there is a countering advantage of a big stack. Part of your advantage of a big stack is to be able to call off short stack pushes for easily

You shouldn't be looking to coast to the final table. The money is in the top 5 places. If you don't accumulate, you will no longer be a big stack. There is a balance, but if you are thinking of folding AKs, you are probably making big weak/tight mistakes.

how is there even a discussion here.

No obv come on brah

Eazzzzzzzy FOLD.


Lol.

I keed, I keed...

C'mon maaaaaan, Superrrr Standard """".

Why coast in the top 4... 1st pays much better.. With that mentality, you're just gonna blind out too frequently before any real money is ever made... Just looking at this without looking at the full stats, but knowing your chiplead - I heavily doubt you'd just coast into the top 4 still blinding away in a Turbo...

It comes much quicker than you think... I've been chiplead w/11 left in a 10person paying turbo satellite and sat out thinking I'd coast in.. looked at replays after and shortstacks kept doubling/doubling and I was blinded out in 11th..