Fernando Pons UTG raises to 450,000.
Michael Ruane (23.1M) calls from the button
James Obst (25.8M) calls from the small blind
Qui Nguyen calls from the big blind.

(pot~2M) Qs Jc 7c

Obst and Nguyen check to Pons, who cbets 625,000.
Ruane raises to 2,025,000
Obst tanks 90 seconds then 3! to 5,300,000.
Nguyen and Pons fold, Ruane tanks 2mins then calls

(pot~13M)Tc

Obst checks.
Ruane tanks 2.5mins then bets 3,750,000
Obst tanks 2mins then calls.

(pot~20M)Td

Obst leads out for 4,700,000
Ruane allin 13,500,000 total
Obst tank folds


Extraordinary hand early in final 27 at WSOP earlier today. I only have the coverage above, so unsure of other stacks or table dynamic at this point.

What is Ruane's call pre, raise/call flop range?
What is Obst's SB call, c/3!, c/c, b/f range?
I'm stumped.

how do ppl like this make it to the final 27

Obst is a gun (8 cashes this WSOP including 2nd $10K HORSE). Ruane is rec.

KQ or QJ for Obst, T9 or JT (JT more likely) for Ruane

Hopefully this hand will make the cut for TV, so I can check my guess :-)

One or both of them probably butchered their hand way too much.

yes, i think it's either butchered somewhere, or there are some very narrow and unlikely ranges here and Obst made a sick b/f otr.

I'd have Ruane on Qcxc, 2pr+ after that raise/call otf, as he should be intending to gii against a 3! from the OR.

the turn bet makes it look more like Qxcx. why bet and risk being jammed on here?

but if he has Qcxc then how would it be anything other than a call otr when Obst leads with a potential 77 full house or nf?

Kqcc AQcc are perfect hands to shove river Coz it blocks QQ (small chance James flats QQ pre, ppl love flatting JJ QQ AK deep in ME). It's more std to call flop w Kqcc AQcc but Rec players may play diff. I heard from NVG that Ruane had A5cc. Not sure if true. If yes this would be one of the sickest bluffs and most ballsy bluffs in MTT history given its the day ****in 7 of the #worldchampionship

Anyway I'm not sure if leading river in a spot that it's super hard to rep bluffs is fine. Guess it's an exploitative lead to get value from flushes vs a weaker player.

^ at what point is Ruane bluffing if he has A5cc?
If Obst had 77 then this should be b/c otr

He is said to have told friends that on the river he had Obst on 77 and didn't think he could call a shove when he still had QQ and JJ in his range and Obst wouldn't expect him to turn a flush into a bluff so that's what he did, apparently.

Then Obst should call
QQ and JJ should be discounted when Obst 3! otf and Ruane flats rather than 4!

I agree. Flopped top/middle set probably wouldn't bet turn. If this is so does this make the bluff, even if it got through, a spew? That is if he did have A5cc.

And this.

maybe Obst bet river with funky KcQx that had no sdv?

But surely he doesn't risk the 3! otf...(say it ain't so)

Obst's story is well known, teenage prodigy, plays the highest stakes mixed tournies; is a super-high calibre player. Interesting to listen to Ray Dehkarghani's commentary in the 10k HORSE where Obst was runner-up to Jason Mercier earlier this series. Ray D was bemused/confused/very critical of some of Obst's play in that event.

I played him in mixed games and limit games MTTs before BF and watched some of his videos for those games on RIO. It is ridiculous that RIO considers those elite videos you have to pay $100/month to watch. He plays limit games like an Internet kid and an Australian. I don't think those games are spread live in Australia. He plays those games like an aggressive NLHE Internet player, which can make him dangerous despite the technical errors. I was surprised, however, that he had so much success in those games at this WSOP.

One thing left out of the hand history here is that Obst was really pained after being shoved on, thought for up to four minutes, was replayng the hand out loud. Basically genuine that he had a pretty big hand, don't think he was hollywooding something like KcQx. 77 seems super obvious for him here, but who knows, the hand is a bit strange.

Ruane, I have no idea, he seems inexperienced Hendonmob wise but not sure of his overall skill level. It would be pretty hard for him to have QQ/JJ, just because I think those get 3-bet mostly or at the very least get 4-bet on drawy flop. The Ac5c, I haven't seen claimed anywhere other than some unknown NVG player, so take it with a grain of salt. If he shoved the nut flush on that river, given his background I would think he's overvaluing his hand more than bluffing.

Maybe he had the straight flush combo and lied about his hand knowing Pbst would find out what he had claimed and wanting to tilt a good player

As far as Obst / McLeod's limit MTT game, he plays aggressively and unpredictably (because he doesn't know how to play the games). The play in limit MTTs, particularly live, tends to be passive, partly due to ICM or whatever, so his approach could be effective.

As for the big hand, I hope it will be shown on ESPN so we can find out what they had. I think it would be pretty bad for Obst to bet fold a flush or better whatever they had.

oh ya 77 makes a ton of sense for obst

his riv lead is crazy bad against anyone with a brain

I was in the rio and i had the impression ruane was pretty weak. That being said, he prepares the river jam by his small turn sizing (leaving him just one barrel behind).

I talked to obst briefly afterwards, and he hated the fold although he saw ruane as very strong (put even 8c9c in his range ). I am nearly sure he had a boat, where a stated above a misplayed 77 makes a lot of sense.

If obst has the 77 here than I can't see how he folds. I really see no way Ruane has qq or JJ here the way the hand played out. The flop raise by Ruane looks like an a semi bluff that gets there on the turn. Sick bluff if he has the A high flush.

I can't see Ruane having QQ, not so much from pre as from the flop action. Obst has checkraised to $5.3 with $4.6 already in the pot and QQ is the nuts at the time on a really drawy board. QQ jams this almost every time. JJ has got to be slightly less certain to do so, but still does so almost all of the time.

So that leaves Ruane with flush combos. AcKc would likely have raised pre; AcQc is a possibility, as are other Axc hands, or perhaps KcQc or other suited connectors. The only one to worry about is 8c9c, which is just one of about fifteen combos. Would Ruane really bet out with a straight flush on the turn? Most player check this back in an effort to get Obst to lead the river.

I don't think there's any real possibility of Ruane holding QT or JT or T7 or other combos that lead to overfulls.

If I'm Obst, I don't think I can get away from 77.

If Obst is calling a raise, then his lead on the river with 77 is fine -- it's done on the assumption that flushes will pay him off and those are most of Ruane's range. But if Obst is folding the river to a jam, as happened here, then it's not a good lead. It's really easy to blow this in-game, just because there's such a palpable sense of relief when you fill up against a range that contains a bunch of flushes and straights.

Really an interesting hand. I'm already dying to see it on TV, knowing that I'll have to withstand far too much coverage of that blowhard Kassouf to get there.

obviously u can probably just expect ppl to get qq jj in otf or w/e. but then again 99% of ppl in the world arent capable of bluff jamming nut flush or anything otr here and itd be pretty unexpected for them to do so. Its pretty perverse actually my brain would just be like noone bluffs here i cant beat any value jams but how the fk can he value jam something here.

Yes so a pretty good idea is to not narrow V's range to only things that beat you when you have bottom set on this texture 100+bb deep