I didn't see the straight flushes....I agree its 100% a call now and a crying call at that....

also galen is obv right about turn sizing **** i might even go bigger.

Ya, especially if the pot has just a big pile of black chips and villain is too dumb to figure out how much is in there, I'd probably bet 2 yellow chips on turn.

Betting 700 here is possibly indicative of a huge overall leak in your live mtt game. Betting like 40-60% of pot for no reason without really thinking of what V's calling range vs different sizes is, is probably one of the biggest leaks I see from mtt regs that transition to live poker.

Mostly for humor's sake I managed to get five people to fold to minbets on the turn this summer, and I valuebet > 2.5x pot on six occasions and got called on three. So many fish have absurdly inelastic calling ranges in live poker.

by inelastic you mean they'll call a 1/10th pot bet just as frequently as a 1xpsb right?

Great input as always galen. I also missed the str8 flush possibilities, as played just call river.

Yes, I am not sure we are good that much with 5th nuts. Raise/fold seems sort of optimistic.

Many thanks for all of the feedback. For what it's worth, I thought (think) that raise/fold on the river is the best play, though I've been convinced that my preferred size, 12,500 straight, is too big (10,000 sounds right) and I've gained an appreciation for the merits of just calling, which struck me as incredibly nitty at first blush. . .

I thought this comment re: turn was particularly interesting (particularly like the use of the underused econ term "inlelastic"):

I didn't describe my thinking on the turn because I wanted thoughts on a blank slate (and was lazy), so here it is:

My initial thought was to bet big, but I reconsidered and went with the small bet specifically because I was concerned that V's range was not as inelastic as you describe. I thought he would call the big bet with under-fulls, the case 10, nut flush draws and combo/sf draws. But I thought it was likely that, if I bombed the turn (after betting 5/6 pot on flop), he would wake up and fold smaller flush draws and straight draws--hands that he would call the small bet with and pay off big if they hit on the river (particularly straights that completed with a non-spade). I also thought that, if he had an underfull or the case 10, the small bet might make my hand look like a draw and induce a raise. Now maybe all of this is giving a random V, 30 minutes in too much credit for thinking--which would weigh in favor of assuming that he's entirely inelastic and just bombing the turn as you recommend--but this is what I was thinking.

After he open limped from MP and then check-called that flop, I excluded overpairs from his range (which obviously makes raising the river easier. . .). Which overpair is he ever showing up with here?? I thought this guy raises JJ-QQ pre about 99% of the time (probably to 4x+. . . ); maybe 90% of the time with KK-AA, which he may consider "trapping" with. Either way, on those rare occassions when he does limp in and finds himself on a 6-way, 10-high flop with obvious draws, I see him bombing the flop every time (maybe c/r'ing with AA). When he check-calls, those overpairs disappear to my eyes.

So, the river: when he check raises, I think his range is Q-10, 99, 22, A-high flushes and obviously K-Jss and J-8ss. I think the flushes are substantially more likely because, most of the time, I see him check-raising his sets on the flop and donk-betting, or c/r'ing the small bet, when he turns trips. Within the sub-range of flushes, the pre-flop action weighs in favor of the straight flushes to the extent that he's substantially more likely to limp in with K-Jss and J-8ss than with A-Kss or A-Jss.

If villain's good enough to realize that he should fold a draw on the turn for > 1/2 pot, he's also probably good enough to get some warning bells from you leaving him in that cheap which will get you less river value on your other hands. Definitely bet at least 1K on the turn to build a pot. River's a weird spot, and I'd feel like the biggest nit in the world just calling, but you get in awful spots if you raise, precisely because his shoving range is so hard to figure out and you don't even know whether you can call a shove or not.

Oh, agree with limping behind pre being a big leak vs. raising this deep. I could see limping with like Axs precisely because you're just trying to make the unlikely super nuts, but a suited connector is more likely to make very good but non-nut hands and plays better shallower anyway, even independent of the fact that this is a great spot to iso a weaker player.

Was going to write a post about why we should raise pre, bet bigger on the turn, and flat the river, but looks like Galen beat me to it

The main reason for R/F is that a rec player will probably have a hard time folding A high flushes, 99 and 22. So I am pretty sure on average you'll make more money by raise/folding than by just calling.

The main reason for just calling his check raise would be that a bad recreational player could put you all in with 99/22 and make you fold the best hand. The other problem might be that you might have troubles folding the 5th nuts with all these chips in the middle and thinking that he might have 22/99.

I lead towards raise/fold but wont blame anyone for just calling down.

just call!

great post as per usual