Curious to hear thoughts on everything, particularly river.

Background: Less than 30 minutes in, table has been very passive. I've been involved in a few small, multi-way pots that have not been shown down, including one with villain: ~40 y/o, muscular white guy with southern accent seated on my direct right, definitely a recreational player based on table talk. Me: 30-something white guy, no sunglasses or headphones.

The Hand: villain has a touch above starting stack, I've got 31,000 in high jack. Villain open limps; I look down at 10h-9h and decide to limp behind, figuring that a raise behind is unlikely (not a 3-bet yet) and I'd just as soon be multi-way with a decent size pot if I flop big. Everyone else comes along.

600 in pot; flop comes 10s-9s-2d. Checks to me; I bet 500; folds around to villain who snap calls.

Turn is the 10c; villain checks; I pause for 15-20 seconds and bet 700; villian takes about same amount of time and calls.

River is the Qs; villian checks; I bet 2000; villian takes 10 seconds and raises to 5500; I . . .?

I guess flat the raise.

I'm making it 11500. We are beat sooooooo rarely. QQ is basically impossible, and QT usually isn't check/calling the turn in the hands of a rec player. KsJs or Js8s are of course possible, but plenty of rec players can have the nut flush here, and they generally will grumblecall when we 3bet and will certainly call if he's been slowplaying 22 or 99.

11500/fold or are you getting allin?

We are 300xBB deep in a limped pot. No way I am stacking off with 5th nuts.

yeah my plan would be to fold to a jam. I know it sucks putting in so many chips on the river and folding, but I think he generally has a strong hand that we beat.

I don't hate just calling, as it's a big disaster if we 11.5/fold when he piles 99 b/c OMG full house! but I think we are leaving a lot of value on the table by calling.

Other factors include exactly how this guy has been playing, if he seems to have any grasp of hand values, and how soft our table is.

just call in the main doubt hes going to call off more with flushes.

Idk its close, if he's c/r'ing flushes here he could be calling off more, i like making it ~12k and hating my life if he jams. How can he really have qq here tho?

Raising and folding to a push makes no sense. You aren't ahead enough when the 3b gets called or raised. Plus occasionally you get pushed off of the best hand.

Yeh true, i guess we should either just call or be raising to induce. He should rarely be jamming tho so it shouldnt come up too often. Tough not to get greedy here and just call since both flush and str8 got there, and its level 1 so all the dolts are still in, guy could have 23ss for all we know.

9975/fold

might call depending on live reads

I call. I would rather take it down now (if I am ahead) and gain some valuable information on this guy. Has he limped in when he plays (I know, all of 12 hands, lol)? Has he shown down any hands? Has he raised preflop or even reraised preflop yet? Has he attempted any bluffs? Can u use this call later on to your advantage against observing opponents at the table? It all needs to be considered here early on in a long deep stack tournament!

It is so easy to get greedy with the 4th nuts, but is this guy capable of holding the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd nuts? It is certainly possible and you have no information yet. Seeing opponent's hand here can be worth plenty of chips in the long run (and this is a long tournament). Gain the information on this hand and get a read on this guy before making value raises with the 4th nut. Things can get pretty dicey quickly if this guy thinks he has a lock with a hand like 22 and pushes you off the better hand. It is not worth the risk. You do not know if this guy is capable of a 4 bet with a worse hand yet and if he does push it puts you in a tough situation.

40 something rec player limping in from 6th seat could be hands like ks js and 10's imo. 22 is also possible (but you have that beat). It could also be a 10-9 that you also hold (td-9d/9c). It would be nice to know if you have seen any of his holdings.

Flop call would not eliminate any of these holdings. I agree that qq is very unlikely but I have been known to limp with this hand 1st in from mid position, late position, and even button if there is a loose agg/maniac to my left (not immediate left, lol). He might know something you don't know (like the sb is a totaol maniac and he is trying a trap play with QQ). Knowing how the button and blinds have been playing could be a clue in whether this hand is possible.

Turn 10 should scare away flush draws but some opponents are stubborn and they won't fold a str8 flush draw (not even if it is a gutshot). Before he calls in a hand could he be saying "I would have expected this guy to have raised preflop with a hand like qq, 10's, 9 9! Is it the I know that you know kind of thought process going on here? You need to think like your opponent but this is way too early to be doing anything like that.

So, all in all, the call is the best action followed by a raise to 10k. Folding is out of the question (unless he has you beat, but that would only be known in hindsight).

Scott

R/f makes the most sense. The number of combos that you beat is amazingly high compared to the number of combos that you don't beat, especially when you factor in that he snapcalled the flop which points to a draw. Now, if he is bluffing, he has to be turning a value hand (something that was c/c c/c c/r ing after most draws made something) into a bluff - this means you can safely fold because that kind of bluff is never going to be this guys' MO. Even if he was bluff cr'ing the river with 8 high, or even if he had the Js somehow, thinking he would rip it light on you is completely insane. Finally, amateur players are not that likely to fold things like flushes and boats for a reasonable sized bet even when they highly suspect they are beat.

trivial but I like a bigger bet on the turn.

as played raise/fold I guess, I mean this is the main, he's a weak player, we don't have the nuts, etc.

If you're going to raise fold, make it 10K straight, but I don't think I like it with two straight flush draws getting there. I'd make it 500 pre based on description of villains behind, though.

Definitely raise pre. It's the main event, the point isn't to make big hands in multiway pots and hope people stack off to you, the point is to pick up a bazillion pots without contest because everybody plays way too loose/passive pre and way too tight/passive post.

Make it like 500, you'll probably go to the flop vs 1 or 2 villains, and play accordingly there.

Also, all the hands that beat you are DEFINITELY in this guy's range, it's the ****ing main event. He FOR SURE can have QQ or QT or KJss or J8ss here.

Just call here, compared with a normal tournament he has value much more frequently but will call a 3b with worse much less frequently. Honestly, raise/fold is probably more +EV than call, but idk in the main I take absurdly nitty lines with my strong value hands since there is so much free money for anyone with a stack to just grab for free.

There are a lot of villains where you can just rip it allin and get snapped by worse, but you are 30 minutes in and have no way of knowing that yet. I played a similar hand about 5 hours in and jammed 35k over a 4k lead on the river with 2nd boat and got snapped by a straight before I had even finished saying "allin", but this V from your brief description doesn't sound like this kind of player.





Edit: Also, Villain's range on the turn is super inelastic, he's never folding a ten or a flush draw or an overpair, so betting 700 into 1600 is really bad imo. Yeah he maybe folds A9 to a big bet and calls a small, but its way more +EV to bomb. Bet like 1500 or so.

Afaik this is by far the biggest thing you should be taking from this thread, since situations like this come up SO OFTEN and betting 700 is just like lighting money on fire.

Betting 1500 instead of 700:
-wins you twice as much money immediately when he has a flush or straight draw and misses
-wins you ****loads more money (you get to vbet into a 4.6k pot on riv instead of 3k pot) when he has a ten or hits his flush or straight draw
-turns his range much more faceup and makes river a lot easier to vbet effectively