Day 1C of the HPT Thunder Valley Main. $1650 BI; 30k Starting Stack. Level 2, 75/150 we have about 27k villains cover.

I open KJhh utg to 375: utg+1 calls; villain 1 in MP1 3-bets to 1200; SB cold calls; I call; utg+1 calls.

3 bettor was a lagtard, who had been iso'ing a fish on my left and squeezing and 3-betting a lot. SB seemed solid, hadn't done anything out of line and appeared to have a clue. I would say that he def noticed the tendencies of the lag 3-bettor.

Flop is 6h 5h Jd

SB checks;check;check MP c-bets 2k; SB c/r to 6.5k we???

10.5k/call

Just rip it

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we may fold alot of worse draws if we rip it, no?

SB has a very strong range here. I think SB has JJ or QQ here a lot and maybe AQhh also. I think I just flat here.

fold the second time pre. even though you have a read on villain as being squeeze-happy, some hands are just not profitable to play oop multiway in 3b pots no matter how loose the 3bettor is.

happy to go 12k/call here on the flop. you'll always get heads up and your hand will always be doing well enough. i think rip should probably be fine, too, but villain will have some amount of perceived FE vs you if you raise/call it off. i imagine some people do some wacky 3b/f thing with a good jack here to "see where they're at"

just don't fold or flat. your hand is doing far too well against villains ranges to fold your hand at any point, and flatting allows MP1 behind to take one off and complicate the hand. also, you show up light more often when you 3b flop than when you cold call flop, so you can't expect to get any additional chips in against a worse hand if you flat fop.

Pretty much this, esp. the part of not folding now.

These's HPTs are so soft, I don't think it can be good to get in 180 BB's with just a pair and non nut flush draw without having a good enough read on SB...

Pre-flop fold to the squeeze. Not sure how much you have played live, but SB range is very strong here. I expect 75% of his pre flatting range to be 10s-Qs, AQ, and sometimes AK. I expect him to wake up with a set of Jacks or Nut Flush Draw quite often here.

It may sound nitty, but as I said earlier, without a good read on SB I lean toward a fold, and realize I made a mistake pre-flop. SB raising in a 3 way pot early on in the tourney is going to have it so often that top pair K kicker and king high flush draw are two very weak hands when separated.

together, though.....

If SB is rarely getting out of line here, his range has you crushed. I expect SB to have AQhh, Akhh or JJ a huge % of the time, why get in 180bb in a marginal spot when the field is so soft?

I understand the "fold and move on in such a soft tournament" mentality. It has merit. However it's just a notion, often an overvalued one, with no clear, discrete value we can leverage to make a better decision here. We could pretty confidently say that OP's edge over the remaining field is more prominent when utilizing a 60k stack instead of a 26k stack, which could be an outside-the-box reason to up variance in this spot, so who's to say the two effects don't cancel each other out?

We're doing really well against AQhh, villain cannot have AKhh, we're doing decently well against QQ, and we should have 8 clean outs twice against JJ. We also need to put a couple c/r/fs (AJ) and a couple c/r bluffs (AKo) into SB's range, though we agree it is very value-heavy.

^The above, combined with dead money, should make it clear that we have more than enough equity against SB's range to get it in happily here. However if you need more convincing I'll do it on Flopzilla when I get home.

Also I doubt villain will call off vs our shove with QQ..... If he has AXhh ill take it with the dead $$$

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I think you are putting too much value in the suited aspect of your hand preflop, given that it's only like a ~5% chance to make a flush, or even hit a four-flush draw.

When you raise KJ (probably the number one reverse implied odds hand there is from ep) and it gets significant action back to you, I think you just have to let it go. KJ plays terrible out of position unless you really flop gin, you will most likely get into tough spots like this one. At least you have a flush draw. What if you didn't have the flush draw but did hit top pair like in this case, then what are you doing? Are you only calling re-raise preflop to hit a flush or straight, but will fold top pair on the flop to c-bets?

The UTG raise with KJhh may not be terrible, but against big action back to you, I think you just need to shrug and muck it and stay out of trouble, and more importantly, not be out of position with a big reverse implied odds hand.

Our hand has 47.8% against a range of just QQ, JJ, and AQhh. So we are doing well enough to get it in here if villain only ever shows up with those 3 hands. When we work a couple of c/r/fs into the mix we are fistpumping here

1.4b
2.Fold
3.Call

As played id prolly just shove

sick bump by me, anyone have diff opinion than they did a year ago?

Why would SB who we perceive as competent c/r flop this deep w/QQ? Flat flop seems better for multiple reasons, for one thing we don't want to get QQ in otf this deep (hence flatting it pre) and call probably yields higher EV vs. a LAG.

Risking 25.8k to win pot of 32.75 (this assuming MP1 folds to our jam, feel free to check math) we need 44.06% equity.

Vs. a range of just JJ/AQhh we have 40.36%, and if you add 55/66 which might flat pre we're down to 32.57%. Maybe he plays something like AA as a flat pre, that gets us to 38.78%.

IMO we can't come up with a reasonable range that gets us to 44%. On top of that we're not closing the action, +1 and MP1 can overcall and when they do it's strictly sets and nut flushes.

I can't see SB having much of a bluffing range at all here with the cold flat pre, strictly OOP to three players, and with two players who are essentially "yet to speak" having merely checked flop to pfa.

now i kind of want to call.

i think having played a lot more live poker since then i give villains behind a better chance to just toss 6.5k in because there's so much in there and they have some random flush draw or Jx that wants to "see what happens", i don't think we're as vulnerable to them as we might think

combined with people just inevitably playing their hands badly/transparently on the turn i think flatting might be best, lots of chips behind and no shame in folding at some point if people go nuts