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| High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of high stakes MTT hands and techniques |
07-13-2012, 11:01 PM
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#1
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journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 215
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Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
I started the day off with about 40K (800/1600/200) and rolled it up to a little over 120K by the next level (1000/2000/300). Villain is youngish French player (~250K) who has been playing relatively aggro. BB is some limit holdem bracelet winner (~250K). They are competing to be the table big stack.
French player is UTG, hero is UTG+1 with KcKs, other guy is in the BB.
UTG opens to 4300, I flat with KK (not enough history to get action by 3betting/making a decent squeeze spot for two 20bb stacks on table), BB flats.
Flop is AsKd3c rainbows Pot (15K)
BB checks, UTG bets 5300, hero calls, BB raises to 13500, UTG tank calls, hero tank calls.
Turn is a 5s Pot (55K)
BB checks, UTG bets 25K, hero tank calls, bb folds
River is a Jc Pot (105K)
UTG thinks for a few secs, grabs his stack of orange (5K chips) and pushes me all in for a little over 75K.
Hero??? Do we fold the second relative nutz here?
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07-13-2012, 11:03 PM
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#2
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adept
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 755
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Re: Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
cant see how u can fold, I would have got it all in on the turn, if he has it he has it.
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07-13-2012, 11:44 PM
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#3
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 24,942
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Re: Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
I would raise atlast on of the first three streets. Obviously call river. Seems pretty nitty.
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07-14-2012, 12:11 AM
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#4
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journeyman
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: voll is dumb
Posts: 242
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Re: Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
I think you played every street wrong. Except the river, assuming you called. Relative second nuts?
Raise pre, raise flop, raise turn...
Why don't you just say the 4th nuts, which is what your hand actually is?
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07-14-2012, 12:18 AM
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#5
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journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 215
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Re: Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
Can I get some explanations to your reasoning please?
Last edited by Clutch Hero; 07-14-2012 at 12:32 AM.
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07-14-2012, 01:30 AM
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#6
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old hand
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Finland
Posts: 1,574
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Re: Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
I don't get why you wouldn't happily turbo snapcall after this line.
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07-14-2012, 02:51 AM
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#7
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Auckland
Posts: 7,847
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Re: Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
You need like 30% equity to break even cEV wise, maybe you want like 33% or whatever cause of edge (just an example of edge requirement, you could want more or less).
If he NEVER bluffs you still have a clear call if he plays:
AA 3 combos 100% of the time
AK (3 possible combos) 1/2 the time (is too nitty to jam river or whatever)
33 (3 possible combos) 1/2 the time (maybe doesn't "always" open pre, and occasionally nits up the river or whatever)
QTss 1 combo 100% (often folding flop)
In reality I think qts is less than 100, ak and 33 are more than 1/2.. (esp 33, as if he has AK you can have 33, whereas if he has 33 you can't, he heavily discounts aa/kk from your range pre, and you are more likely to have ak since he doesnt have the blockers etc) so ya
(vs the above you have 43%)
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07-14-2012, 03:40 AM
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#8
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journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 215
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Re: Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
I dont see what a raise accomplishes on earlier streets.
Preflop, we are not looking to get it allin 60bb deep with KK preflop (it just wont happen unless it is a cooler UTG v UTG+1). With no prior history vs a player with a wide range, why would we 3bet pre when he is most likely going to fold? As explained, there were two resteal stacks to the left as well. I believe that flatting results in a higher profit then 3betting in this certain spot.
On the AK3 rainbow flop, there is absolutely no card that can come to kill action. No point in 3betting here at all. Does anyone ever 3bet bluff this spot? I dont think so. Im making my face-up hand even more face-up pretty much leaving only AA and 33 in the hand.
Someone needs to explain me the merits to raising on turn.
Why is the river an obvious call? What do we beat here? Our range looks like 33/KK/AA or AK. We call a flop raise when we have relative position on a drawless rainbow flop meaning we believe that we have the best hand on the flop..
On the turn, we are squeezed between the bb and UTG bet, but still decide to flat call off 12.5bb (25% of our remaining stack). This is where villain can remove almost all combos of Ax, most of A3, and a decent amount of AK from my range. Considering the fact that UTG is never bluffing when he bets the turn, our flat is extremely strong.
On the river, what hand shoves 75% pot allin other then AA. 33's would be trying to get value from AK (which will definitely not call a shove), so it would bet about 20-40K/fold to a ship. AK will never shove river as it only gets called by better, and we hard rep the 3's. This leaves all combos of AA in villains range and maybe a spewy shove by 33 that accomplishes nothing (folds out AK and gets called by AA/KK)
So do we really have 30%?
Last edited by Clutch Hero; 07-14-2012 at 03:45 AM.
Reason: or am I just 3rd leveling a 1st level player
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07-14-2012, 04:04 AM
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#9
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adept
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 774
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Re: Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
i think u played the hand perfectly assuming u snap called the river
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07-14-2012, 04:08 AM
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#10
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old hand
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Australia/Micro stakes Stars tab
Posts: 1,745
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Snap call.
Fondle nads.
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07-14-2012, 04:08 AM
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#11
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old hand
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Edinburgh
Posts: 1,474
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Re: Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
Looks good now snap it off
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07-14-2012, 04:10 AM
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#12
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 4,695
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Re: Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
i think you are pretty off on a lot of your assumptions of your perceived range and his range. this was a very well played hand and you need to call here. obv he had AA since you posted but this is a very big cooler and is an extremely well played hand
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07-14-2012, 04:27 AM
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#13
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 4,439
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Re: Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
I'd play it the same and call the river.
Your ranges for yourself and UTG don't need to be nearly that strong. UTG can peel this small check-raise with lots of Ax and gutshots because BB is just seeing where he's at and he's going to fold the turn or river almost always. The only legit hand he can have is 33 which he'd probably raise bigger.
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07-14-2012, 04:35 AM
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#14
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journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 215
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Re: Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
Quote:
Originally Posted by Billy Bibbit
Your ranges for yourself and UTG don't need to be nearly that strong. UTG can peel this small check-raise with lots of Ax and gutshots because BB is just seeing where he's at and he's going to fold the turn or river almost always. The only legit hand he can have is 33 which he'd probably raise bigger.
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Agreed with flop range. But do lots of Ax bet turn when I cold call the preflop raise as well? Isn't villains turn value bet range extremely polarized? This doesnt really matter though. Call with KK and move on seems to be the consensus.
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07-14-2012, 06:42 AM
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#15
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adept
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 926
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Re: Hero fold 1.5x average pot in ME day 3
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clutch Hero
I dont see what a raise accomplishes on earlier streets.
Preflop, we are not looking to get it allin 60bb deep with KK preflop (it just wont happen unless it is a cooler UTG v UTG+1). With no prior history vs a player with a wide range, why would we 3bet pre when he is most likely going to fold? As explained, there were two resteal stacks to the left as well. I believe that flatting results in a higher profit then 3betting in this certain spot.
On the AK3 rainbow flop, there is absolutely no card that can come to kill action. No point in 3betting here at all. Does anyone ever 3bet bluff this spot? I dont think so. Im making my face-up hand even more face-up pretty much leaving only AA and 33 in the hand.
Someone needs to explain me the merits to raising on turn.
Why is the river an obvious call? What do we beat here? Our range looks like 33/KK/AA or AK. We call a flop raise when we have relative position on a drawless rainbow flop meaning we believe that we have the best hand on the flop..
On the turn, we are squeezed between the bb and UTG bet, but still decide to flat call off 12.5bb (25% of our remaining stack). This is where villain can remove almost all combos of Ax, most of A3, and a decent amount of AK from my range. Considering the fact that UTG is never bluffing when he bets the turn, our flat is extremely strong.
On the river, what hand shoves 75% pot allin other then AA. 33's would be trying to get value from AK (which will definitely not call a shove), so it would bet about 20-40K/fold to a ship. AK will never shove river as it only gets called by better, and we hard rep the 3's. This leaves all combos of AA in villains range and maybe a spewy shove by 33 that accomplishes nothing (folds out AK and gets called by AA/KK)
So do we really have 30%?
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Balance analysis:
Preflop you 3-bet bluff tons, because villains fold all hands except AA and KK 60bb:s deep.
On these flops you reraise every time because villain continues less than 10% of times according to your analysis
On the turn villain should 2 barrel all hands if you fold all hands except 2-pairs+ and you obviously raise all turns(with bad cards) because you said villain ~never calls this spot
After reraising flops and turns for a while taking free chips you would be good to get it in with KK here with your image. If you; however did not raise all flops and turns previously don't give numbers that insist ou should have.
On the river you are folding flopped top 2 when preflop was 60bb:s deep so villain should third barrel everything...
I would ~always have weaker hand then you, if your previous play would have revealed you are this nit. Also all players who play tons of tournaments and try to play well(instead of stupidly avoiding losing all chips with hands like 2 pairs or set 60bb deep with no reasonable drawing hands getting there) in ME have tons of weaker hands.
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