Ok so there are 15 left and I am 2nd in chips. I have been somewhat aggro with opens but not 3betting much. sckilla is running about 19/13 over many hands and eyeamallin is 17/11 over 71 hands. They have both been taggy in general with sckilla a bit more active pre opening more hands. Not sure how much you guys care about payouts but 15th is $17.5k and 12th is $23k. I need 8th to clear makeup anyway though heh. 1st is $432k.

Full Tilt Poker FTOPS Main Event No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30000/t60000 Blinds + t7500 - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pokerguru19 (BB): t565740
dubbeemin (UTG): t1911289
acumen53 (UTG+1): t2153528
sckilla (MP1): t1247574
Hero (MP2): t2444814
jackoff (CO): t1434654
eyeamallin77 (BTN): t1784098
TheTotalPkg (SB): t697796

Pre Flop: Hero is MP2 with K A
2 folds, sckilla raises to t150000, Hero raises to t420000, 1 fold, eyeamallin77 raises to t1776598 all in, 2 folds, sckilla calls t1090074 all in, Hero?

eh i guess u have to call cause u have a sidepot w/ the shover, the caller has u beat way more than the shover does though obv...i think its really close though and i would fold if the stacks were reversed (sckilla and eyeamallin)

Uhh I think I might fold.

I'm kinda tired though.

Golly I think I fold.

I'll repost what I sent Fsoyars when he pm'd me earlier b/c I mentioned one thing that hand history can't show you:

"Most players will say never fold AK this deep in a tournament. For the most part, they're right. But I actually think you can here since there's a damn good shot one of them has KK+. I wasn't watching for very long last night but when I was it was hard not to notice how basically everyone was playing scared and if anyone took the bull by the horns, they'd win the tourney. Honestly, when you got 4-bet, I woulda hated life w/ AK there because of how ridic tight his range would be. When the other guy CALLS tho, I really think you can find a fold. Especially when you consider the following:

1. You still have a lot of chips if u fold, over 30 bb's to be exact.
2. Calling & losing (which you are prob gunna do most of the time) really takes away a lot of the flexibility you have.
3. The field is so scared right now that you can easily get all your chips back by constant stealing and pressure.

The more I think of it, the more I think that just because of the super special circumstances of this being the mecca of all Sunday majors in a field full of scared money, I think folding actually woulda been much better."

This isn't the 100r where people are playing aggressively and going for the win. This is one of the biggest tournaments ever held online. The field is full of satellite winners/guys taking shots. Everyone is playing super standard and just looking to move up to bigger money. The ranges here are super tight. I think you can generously assign eyemallin as like TT+ & AK and sckilla as QQ+ & maybe AK. I sincerely doubt they could be much looser than that. Against that range, AKo is 20%! There's way too much value here in folding, preserving a 30+ bb stack, and then playing super aggressively and running bitches over. By calling off the last 900k here, we're sincerely hindering our stack flexibility to make plays on the ft bubble. I mean, Lee Childs is on our right and we all know he'll fold QQ on an 8-high board, so imagine the **** we can put him through! So yes I really think AK is a fold here but it's definately debatable.

this is what i said at first too, but u realize he already put 400k in and its only another 1.3mill to him? and the sidepot alone between him and the 4b shover will be 1.3mill...not to mention the 3 mill main pot man the odds are just too good

good thoughts mkind however, imo, STARTING field contains satellite winners/shot takers, when ur down to the final 15, though, all the donks pretty much have been whittled down, i find the only ppl left in this stage of the tourney are a) really solid players and b) really tight players and maaaaaaaaaaaybe a fish whos just been getting lucky

not disagreeing with ur analysis but i think u are OVERestimating how tight they're ranges are, while i may be UNDERestimating

also ur not taking into the account the fact that if we scoop this huge pot, we can REALLY bully the **** out of the FT bubble...to bully we have to have the big stack, and 30bb's just isnt enough to bully, like we could make the occasional play....but we cant just be raising every hand unless we have the big stack

but if we scoop this pot we can just abuse the table for the rest of the tournament, on to the FT bubble, and we would be in FANTASTIC shape to take top 3 in this

I think mkind's ranges look ok (and really, adding TT+JJ doesn't affect the calcs much) - who the f cold 4-bet shoves AQ here? Or calls one?

Also I think preserving a 35 BB stack here is more important than gaining an abuse stack when odds are taken into account.

U might be right on the whole fish thing but I was watching for like a half hour and can tell u for sure that the entire table seemed scared to death of what was at stake. I also did not notice the side-pot.

Still, I don't think we're scooping this enough to jepordize a significant portion of our stack. Yes, winning this pot would be the most amazing thing for your EV, but I still think you can get by on 30+ bb's. I still think it's a fold.

I fold here. Cold 4 better likely has super tight range at this stage in tournament, plus first guy may have some of your outs.

I think you've gotta fold here.

fold. the field left wasnt that good as most players started to tighten up so keep pounding them via smallball with ur stack.

I think the timing of everything is pretty important here. after fsoyars 3bet, the eyemallin guy took maybe 2 seconds to shove and sckilla pretty much snapped it off when it got back to him....

consider me unconvinced.

u really think the button is folding AQs here? when fsoyars has been active and 3 betting? sckilla is very worrysome but he just doesnt have AA/KK enough here to make it a fold

this goes beyond just the hand itself.

Adding AQs to button's range and AK to sckilla still makes it a fold. I think it's a close fold without ICM in that spot, so what's the reason to call? I really don't think this is the spot to making super thin calls.

Btw I'd say that sckilla's snap shove doesn't necessarily matter since he probably had his mind made up if button took a bit of time on his action - pretty common for me in spots like this at least.

i think its more important you keep the $2mill stack than call here.
you can chip up alot safer since as you said ppl had tightened up a great deal.

really interested to hear the end result plz.

the odds are not too good if you give them both JJ+/AK. he's 20% for the main which will be 3.42mil and 40% for the side which will be 1.37mil. 684k+548k=1.232mil and he's risking 1.356mil. getting it in here is ~120K chip mistake.

edit to add: even is the guy is shoving TT and AQs we're 21.88% for the main and 42.87% for the side and we end up making ~20k chip mistake.

i already said it took the btn 2 seconds... the fact that sckilla snapped when it got back to him surely matters here, especially in this tourney down to 2 tables with the pay jumps coming up

Thanks for the input guys looks like it's a clear fold even given the maths on the sidepot. Unfortunately I called and ran into the BTN's QQ and sckilla's AA. No KKx flop for me, sigh.

sucks man but nice run. I had post FTOPS ME depression for two days after i railed in 51st.

Ah didn't see that - agree that the timing so very definitely matters then.