Hello folks,
This is my first post on twoplustwo; please excuse me if this is not the right place for this discussion. I am new to the game and think most of you might find this hand not very interesting. I will highly appreciate some insight in this decision making.
ANTONIUS (HJ) VS VOGESANG (BB)
First hand of EPT 10 Super High Roller Final Table:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqhSXbOqoM0
Blinds: 25K/50K with 5K ante
Folds to Antonius on HJ (745000), Raises to 100K with KcQh (Pot now: 215K)
Folds to Vogelsang on BB (1215000), Calls 50K with Ah10h (Pot now: 265K
Flop is 8d Ac Qs
Vogelsang checks, Antonius bets 60K, Vogelsang calls (Pot: 385K)
Turn 3h
Vogelsang checks, Antonius bets 120K, Vogelsang calls (Pot: 625K)
River 5d
Vogelsang checks, Antonius bets 250K, Vogelsang calls
My thoughts:
Preflop:
Antonius's preflop open is a little loose given his stack size but its the first hand, other players suspect him to not play loose, so most likely he will pick up the pot preflop. Vogelsang has a hand that hits flops well and most likely his hand is dominated, so calling is the best choice.
Flop:
Vogelsang hits top pair and checks; an open here is not a good option as you want to give Antonious the chance to cbet bluff, and the fact that Vogelsang wont get called by many worst hands. Antonius's cbet i think is not for value but i think it is to pick up the pot as the flop hits his range well.
Turn:
Vogelsang checks again as any bet here wont get called by worse and its good to give opponent a chance to bluff in this spot as Vogelsang could just have a weak ace or pair of queens. Antonius's turn bet is a bluff and is ok i feel given this situation as it most likely would get Vogelsang to fold all queens and some weak aces.
River:
This is where i am super confused. Vogelsang's check is good for similar reasons as the turn but his call to Antonius's bet of 250K is where I can find good reasoning.
Antonius at this point knows Vogelsang has an Ace so his bet of 250K is mostly a value bet (sets and A10+) or a bluff. But given Antonius's preflop range and betting pattern it seems he is mostly not bluffing here.
Is this call easy cause the bet to pot ratio (250K to 875K) is low; and that Antonius has very few hands that qualify for value on the river.
Again, I am sorry for this noob hand history and analysis, Please give me your thoughts openly. Thank you