Hello folks,

This is my first post on twoplustwo; please excuse me if this is not the right place for this discussion. I am new to the game and think most of you might find this hand not very interesting. I will highly appreciate some insight in this decision making.

ANTONIUS (HJ) VS VOGESANG (BB)
First hand of EPT 10 Super High Roller Final Table: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqhSXbOqoM0

Blinds: 25K/50K with 5K ante
Folds to Antonius on HJ (745000), Raises to 100K with KcQh (Pot now: 215K)
Folds to Vogelsang on BB (1215000), Calls 50K with Ah10h (Pot now: 265K

Flop is 8d Ac Qs
Vogelsang checks, Antonius bets 60K, Vogelsang calls (Pot: 385K)

Turn 3h
Vogelsang checks, Antonius bets 120K, Vogelsang calls (Pot: 625K)

River 5d
Vogelsang checks, Antonius bets 250K, Vogelsang calls

My thoughts:
Preflop:
Antonius's preflop open is a little loose given his stack size but its the first hand, other players suspect him to not play loose, so most likely he will pick up the pot preflop. Vogelsang has a hand that hits flops well and most likely his hand is dominated, so calling is the best choice.

Flop:
Vogelsang hits top pair and checks; an open here is not a good option as you want to give Antonious the chance to cbet bluff, and the fact that Vogelsang wont get called by many worst hands. Antonius's cbet i think is not for value but i think it is to pick up the pot as the flop hits his range well.

Turn:
Vogelsang checks again as any bet here wont get called by worse and its good to give opponent a chance to bluff in this spot as Vogelsang could just have a weak ace or pair of queens. Antonius's turn bet is a bluff and is ok i feel given this situation as it most likely would get Vogelsang to fold all queens and some weak aces.

River:
This is where i am super confused. Vogelsang's check is good for similar reasons as the turn but his call to Antonius's bet of 250K is where I can find good reasoning.
Antonius at this point knows Vogelsang has an Ace so his bet of 250K is mostly a value bet (sets and A10+) or a bluff. But given Antonius's preflop range and betting pattern it seems he is mostly not bluffing here.
Is this call easy cause the bet to pot ratio (250K to 875K) is low; and that Antonius has very few hands that qualify for value on the river.

Again, I am sorry for this noob hand history and analysis, Please give me your thoughts openly. Thank you

Assuming the stacks are correct it's a preflop disaster for BB to not 3b shove under normal circumstances. Dunno how many spots were paid etc. it might make some difference. As played out it looks like Antonius played it pretty badly I mean what's he trying to fold out with that sizing?

lol just watched it... Patrik's look at the end was like WOW he has an Ace?? Just such absurdly bad stuff and now I'm seeing they were in the money so it's a total ICM disaster.

1) Vogelsang should 3b shove preflop... as played he pretty much has to call river as he's underrepped, but it's close
2) Patrik should probably fold pre or check back turn, or check back river

i would hate to think im better at poker than christoph vogelsang

Vogelsang is going to GII no matter what. ..If he 3bet shoves or flats and hits any pair on somewhat OK board texture...However taking this line allows Patrick to barrel off worse to him. Patrick wasn't bluffing, he was value betting. He assumes Vogelsang would shove any decent Ax pre so doesn't have many Ax in his range. Also Vogelsang wouldn't play A6-9 anyway. The rest he's most likely jamming pre because they play poorly postflop OOP.

Given that Patrick just made a thin value bet and ended up value cutting himself. It was a bet to get calls from small PPs or Qx type hands.

Also if you watch much of Patricks game you'll know he will made ridiculously thin value bets in some spots. ..This is nowhere near what he is capable of.

It's just absurd from an ICM perspective for Vogelsang to not 3b jam, unless he plans on c/r jamming lots of non Ax or better flops for him. Also absurd for Patrik to put $ in on the river especially for ICM reasons. Vogelsang is gonna show up with a pair here just about never in life, maybe he heros a worse queen but seems unlikely, and it's way more likely he has the random Ax. Thin value bets suck when you need to preserve your stack for ICM reasons.

With 4 to go KQo is a push at 15bb stack also given the strong blockers the handling ok vs 88-JJ and the whatever 4-7% calling/reshoving range of the others depending on position and the fact it has near 33% when called still some 18% of the time this happens. I doubt the other choices have better EV since it will fail to connect 66% of the time at least and anyone who 3bets him is probably ahead but would have often folded to a push. ATo in particular is a fold to a push for ICM reasons.

See how many hands that KQo removes by a bit KK,AK,QQ,AQ easily a combined 1.6% from the 6% total calling range or something.

Given its a hard depressing slightly ok to fold if 3bet all in hand why not push it anyway.

+1.1bb as push easily clears ICM.

Definitely better than min raise i think that will force him to cbet with air so often vs people that can float anyway often or call because they connected and let him bet it anyway as here given how often the BB alone calls him if he didnt reraise and the overall fold equity is not good anymore as all the hard to push ranges become super wider in calling at 2bb now for all positions, 50% of them having position advantage also. Its at least some 7-10% 3bet situation here and maybe some additional 5-7% in calling hands per player with widening for the blinds of course for only some 33% fold equity. The rest now are losses of 2bb in 3bets/all ins (if he called or pushed over a 3bet its not any better than folding basically) say some 30% this happens and the calls the other 37% is vs ranges that yield eventually some avg 1.75bb profit.

So it looks like the raise option is about 0.37*1.75-2*0.3+2.3*0.33=0.81bb

So thats why push seems better option. In fact its probably less volatile too because he gets eliminated that way only some 12% of the time the other 6% doubles up+ and the other 82% he just gets 2.3bb.

I don't think Patrick Antonius comes even slightly close to a MTT player. I doubt he seriously factors in ICM.of course he does to some extent but he's far from optimal in these spots, he is and always will remain a cash game player. However Masque no offense but you are way off topic...OP doesn't care about pre open...he's talking about river call

Thank you so much for the responses; I am glad you guys did not think this was a waste of time. I am so glad to be part of the twoplustwo community.
Based on your responses, I do agree that Vogelsang's call on the river is justified by the fact that he is underrepped and doesn't have many A10-AK in his range, and does have many Qx and some weak As. I do realize how the hands should have been played by both players differently.

What? Vogelsang played his hand perfectly...Its hard to put Patrick on a range that Min-raise/calls that we are crushing...

MR by Patrick is very polarizing and Vogelsang will always get Patrick to fold worse and call with better...even then it normally wouldn't be marginally better since Patrick is trying to look polarized here.

Huge disaster if we get him to fold JTs-KQo etc? He's clearly not that polarized cuz he would have shoved the KQo. ATs is one of the top mediocre hands to get to showdown with vs. a pretty strong range and there is tons in the middle. Not much fold equity is needed to make this a pretty easy 3b shove on the BB.

hey boobsicles, what do you think about Venessa's call on the river in this hand: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4cqOHXei6Q

Lol terrible payoff by Vanessa. ..I can't think of even 1 value combo that Vanessa beats...and hard to see Quoss getting Vanessa to commit so many chips before bluffing and laying her almost 5:1...

THIS. IS. NEVER. A. BLUFF. STOP. CALLING.

cool, i thought the same. Thanks bud. Do you know of other tools or places where I can hear/read good hand analysis. For now, I have been watching latest videos and just going through the thought process behind decisions. Thanks again

The reason you call here is because if you dont you are exploitable. If you fold AT here you also fold A9,A7 etc and of course KK(rare),KQ,QJ etc And since your rarely have in the eyes of opponent AJ,AQ,AK,AA here as played preflop (and later maybe) it increases the chance that if you fold AT and worse you fold so many hands in the range up to river that you are exploitable by any hand that has nothing here and cant win by checking. And the bets were small even at river needing now only 23-25% to call it. So you call because even if wrong and its a crying call its necessary for game theory defense reasons and because he can be doing it with hands that you still beat as played often enough to be plus EV.

The bet by Antonius though is very wrong. Completely irrational.

Awesome explanation Masque, thank you

Lot of analysis about a guy who was eating during the hand.. Huge lol at any reasoning about shoving preflop.

The thread was about the call and that guy was not eating lol. And i made it also about pushing preflop because its the best choice to pick up 1.1bb EV without any high volatility bs or get lucky vs any pair up to JJ that calls or any lower AX like AT,AJ some KJs and because the top hands are reduced because of blockers. 33-35-40% when called depending on ranges/position but you are called very infrequently due to blockers.

Why is it a lol. If the guy is eating he can still be thinking well at the same time and maybe even better because of the brain satisfaction and relaxation eating something nice provides. He said himself later that he made a mistake at river in the interview. That implies he was thinking about his own play later.

These top names are not immortals, they make errors, they often dont care just having fun, because they are so loaded and have so many ways to make money from all kinds of events and they for sure not analyze mathematically any hand they play (ok some maybe they do), they run on experience and intuition and pure natural skill and reads. But you better believe it if i had a computer assisting me playing against them in a general field that i had programmed on my own with people that are top programmers but using my ideas of what i need to know in every hand at any moment, i would be unbeatable in avg ROI. So where is the lol? What for? We study here to learn things even if they prove our own ideas wrong.

If you think you can profit more by raising with KQo 15bb vs 4 covering you here go for it. Propose a plan. Have fun facing a 3bet you cant call 40% of the time. You win when they call on avg and when they fold but they would have folded more often if they faced a push. In any case you save yourself from high volatility tough post flop play with a hand that wont connect safely over 65% of the time. Have fun cbetting with nothing or an ace at flop >65% of the time. It will be profitable no doubt just a bit lower i think with more volatility.

Hard to analyse this hand when antonius misplays every postflop street. Min or shove pre depends on table, but either seems fine especially with KQ. Flop is ok to bet small though check back would probably be better, and turn/river is obviously terrible. Vogelsang played it well enough, rejam pre doesn't make a ton of sense and he can't fold anywhere postflop for these sizings.