Pre is fine... Given live structures are long I like a fold on flop

I would still range him tighter and I wouldn't completely exclude any of the QQ+,AK from his range. If anything I'd expect him to have more traps and less Axs than you'd expect. I want to point out that this is just my vibe and I'm very far from a master when it comes to these spots, I don't claim to have any actual expertise. But anyway, the fact that Hero is In the BB with such a short stack should make a good player want to flat less hands that can't withstand action but I think it's a spot where people like to trap some % of the time. The thing is that if we flat [insert say A5s here] there's just not a whole lot of good things that can come out of it. If the BB shoves, we'll frequently get iso'ed off the pot. If the opener folds then we have to call an allin and look stupid. And because the BB is so short our implieds aren't that great even when we get postflop vs the opener, because everyone has to play more honest because of BB's stack.

I think it's impossible to range SB properly here because it's just so player-dependent. But as a default I wouldn't give him more than like 10-15% of hands (obv not in linear fashion). The fact that he's some HS cash guy *may* mean he flats a bit too much tho.

@Chuck: a lot of that makes sense, but at some point we have to make some assumptions about his range when it's checked to us in the BB and we have to decide whether to check our K3dd or cram it into the middle.

Let's assume that hero is on five outs if called. That gives him about 20% equity in the pot of 315 + 315 + 280 = 910*.2 = $182, but it costs him $315. So he has to make up $133 from fold equity. Round that up to $140, and it's half the pot, and he makes that if both villains together fold half the time. I think . . . .right?

So, just on my thinking-out-loud math, it's profitable for Hero to jam if both villains fold half the time. On my proposed ranges, the SB has a jack or a set 12.5 per cent of the time. I'm too lazy and busy at the moment to go back and try to figure out a specific range for the opener, but my guess is that he has an overpair or hits a jack not all that often -- probably less than required to have both villains fold.

So I think this is a jam.

Of course, I'm playing Devil's Advocate here, and this feels a bit to me like an analysis that justifies my general inclination to jam here.

@Crazy Joe: okay, pal, what did you do? Results-oriented analysis, please!

Results: Hero jams. Cut Off pauses just long enough for me to believe he's folding and then re-jams. SB folds.

Cut Off has QJhh. J on the turn and I'm gone. Cut Off goes on to win tourney and rub 350k on his titties.

such a tricky spot IMO.

Getting amazing odds to call pre flop, I think we have to, even though both other villains have some many Ks in their range that we can end up dominated even when we have TP.

I think c/f and shove are both very close on the flop. If c/o is only c betting a Jack or a PP we're behind, then I think c/f and shove turn if flop checks through and SB checks to us works very well. I don't have enough time with him to know the answer to this, but in a vacuum, I think to assume he's straightforward and play it like this is marginally better than a shove. We have 7ish bb behind and the button next hand, so have another 4 shove spots where we still potentially have some fold equity if we fold here

But pot odds are so juicy and this board misses a lot of their range + we most likely have some equity when called that a shove can't be a big mistake

flat pre. fold is defensible, shoving is not. check flop, can get value from light cbets and still leaves check down or fold to multiple vpip line on the table, dont think shoving does much for you 3 way compared to leaving all your options open when you never get folds from better hands

Ya I don't see what shoving accomplishes We don't have much of a bluff range (54, 75?) on this texture, and those are more than balanced by your Jx combos. Even if you wanna split Jx to protect your check range, you just don't have enough bluffs to throw even 6x's into your lead range, nonetheless 3x. Meanwhile this is a texture that's getting cbet by described villain1 extremely often and we get to find out if sb would have called our lead by how he reacts to the cbet (or if he leads turn when it checks through). So by checking we can protect ourselves by jamming vs weaker/capped ranges on the turn, jam over a wide cbet range when sb folds to flop cbet, and fold vs a range were very often getting called by and behind when flop goes bet and call. Checking just seems by far the best option. Pre is w/e, you should defend bc of the price you're getting but I can at least understand wanting to preserve your stack with 27 left in an enormous live 2k.

lots of you guys say ''call pre fold flop''. Dunno whether everybody copies the first who said it but why should we call pre and fold OTF? Yes we get odds 7:1 but we only rely on FD, Kx,2p+ according to you? We are 10bb deep and you would call and fold like 50bb deep.
With 10bbs we need to save chips and gii when we're ready, It seems ridiculous to me to call pre and fold OTF like this. As played I would shove flop.
Otherwise I would fold pre. If you hadn't 3bet shove CO several hands ago, I would reshove now, super spot for that.

Check and reevaluate the flop. You get some information. Obviously, you get away from it if bet/cr in front. If cbet and SB folds, usually shove. If cbet and call, usually fold. If checked through, then you have 5 outs to a big hand and 10 outs to a flush draw.

The pot is 280 and hero has 315 in his stack. If the c-bet is half the pot (140) then hero's jam is 175 into 560, which will fold out exactly nothing.

I'd rather jam this to retain at least some fold equity.

Was thinking the same thing

Yeah I think betting flop to any non-shove sizing is the nut worst option

We can't really call this preflop guys it just... sucks too much. Our stack is too small and we open ourselves to making huge mistakes.I guess you could argue it, but meh. Honestly, meh guys. Meh.

Open jamming flop is even worse, because we fold out all the hands we beat and get called by the ones that beat us. Betgo's advice is sound. Though I would personally be more inclined to check/call than check/shove.

I actually think it matters if the flop has two of any suit (i know there was one diamond, but were other two cards same suit?). Far more likely to get calls from worse if you were to shove a flop that did a have a possible flush draw.

if we donk shove flop, we may get some hero folds from PFR i think and he may have to fold some hands that beat us or hands that would cbet/call us, because they are deep with SB.
Not the best flop but i dont hate our equity vs their ranges.

The arguments vs donk shoving, like folding hands we beat bla bla or getting called by hands we are beat bla bla is quite irrelevant and needless here i think. We have pair of 3s and a backdoor with almost 1 PSR left.
We need to protect our hand + squeeze PFRaiser.

I think in any case if we continue post flop, donk shoving is best line to take.


I strongly agree with Howard.

dislike the fact that SB range remains strong after checking flop, but it still includes a wide range of hands that miss or sit below Jx.

however, that's some advantage too, as CO will be less likely to call your flop shove lighter than Jx knowing that he could be burning chips against a possible c/r range from SB.

so on balance i agree with open shoving the flop and would do this 100% of the time in this spot. if called by Jx we usually still have some significant equity (K, 3, bdfd), as is the case here when CO iso's with QJ.

also curious to know whether others would flat or overshove as CO.

Yeah, overshove felt very wrong imo. Folds out n thing beating it and gets calls from nothing it's ahead of. Also not many hands it needs to protect itself from

Enough of this thread what are results?

Post #29

Oh oops. I'll stick with 80k/f

Making a play just to have fold equity doesn't help. The only thing that matters is expected value. If we price in a worse hand to call then we are still making money. Even if he has the price to call after the c-bet we are happy since we got him to c-bet with a worse hand in the first place which is where we are making the money.

Another problem I have with open shoving is what hands are we doing this for value? Jx? If we push many of those then our check/calling range becomes very weak. It is better to balance your entire range by checking imo.

A lot of good players will actually call lighter in opponent's spot, because donk shoving looks pretty weak especially because it usually is.

Stop and go is a powerful play, but it should be done with the intention of shoving the flop regardless of the cards that come.