Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Treesong
@Chuck: a lot of that makes sense, but at some point we have to make some assumptions about his range when it's checked to us in the BB and we have to decide whether to check our K3dd or cram it into the middle.
Let's assume that hero is on five outs if called. That gives him about 20% equity in the pot of 315 + 315 + 280 = 910*.2 = $182, but it costs him $315. So he has to make up $133 from fold equity. Round that up to $140, and it's half the pot, and he makes that if both villains together fold half the time. I think . . . .right?
So, just on my thinking-out-loud math, it's profitable for Hero to jam if both villains fold half the time. On my proposed ranges, the SB has a jack or a set 12.5 per cent of the time. I'm too lazy and busy at the moment to go back and try to figure out a specific range for the opener, but my guess is that he has an overpair or hits a jack not all that often -- probably less than required to have both villains fold.
So I think this is a jam.
Of course, I'm playing Devil's Advocate here, and this feels a bit to me like an analysis that justifies my general inclination to jam here.
@Crazy Joe: okay, pal, what did you do? Results-oriented analysis, please!
Results: Hero jams. Cut Off pauses just long enough for me to believe he's folding and then re-jams. SB folds.
Cut Off has QJhh. J on the turn and I'm gone. Cut Off goes on to win tourney and rub 350k on his titties.
such a tricky spot IMO.
Getting amazing odds to call pre flop, I think we have to, even though both other villains have some many Ks in their range that we can end up dominated even when we have TP.
I think c/f and shove are both very close on the flop. If c/o is only c betting a Jack or a PP we're behind, then I think c/f and shove turn if flop checks through and SB checks to us works very well. I don't have enough time with him to know the answer to this, but in a vacuum, I think to assume he's straightforward and play it like this is marginally better than a shove. We have 7ish bb behind and the button next hand, so have another 4 shove spots where we still potentially have some fold equity if we fold here
But pot odds are so juicy and this board misses a lot of their range + we most likely have some equity when called that a shove can't be a big mistake