~$90K up top, currently guaranteed around 3K with about 30 players left out of 600. Villian in question is very LAG but good, has had probably around 6 three-bets in the last hour and opening a lot of pots, pretty much getting away with it every time as the table is quite passive. He's also 3 bet me 3 times already in the ~ 3 hours we've been together already. Hero probably perceived as solid. Table/field is pretty soft, so Hero has decent size edge but its still 30bb poker...

Hero starts the hand with 435K (27BB) at 2/8/16K and the table is currently 7 handed. UTG we open AQo to 35K, Villian 2 seats over from HJ makes it 90K, folds back around to us. Just felt with the dyanmic with V here that he was strong here knowing I might get fed up with his 3 bets and the positions but he could also still definitely still be light. Whats our play?

Options:

Fold - Seems really nitty and we could be getting pwned but may be best if we think V is strong here

Call - It'll basically be 1.5 - 1 SPR, so basically if we flop any A or Q we'll pretty much be committed to the pot. However if we brick we can still get owned and bluffed out of the pot.

Shove - Basically hope that V is light or has JJ/maybe the occasional TT, as he's snapping it in with any better hand...

Feels like AK here is an snap shove, and AJ i would fold pretty easily and not feel bad, so with AQ it's like the really difficult spot?

I think it's ****ing w/ you and givin dynamics I'll stick it into his eyes.
Even tho will be nice to know the stacks behind him and how others are playing.


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What is Vs stack and what is the average stack size left?

What did you do previous times he had 3bet you? What hands has he shown down on his 3bets? Yes and villain stack size also important to know

I don't think we can show profit by flatting here because of being oop and awkward stack sizes (except if you are a shortstack postflop wizard and villain is a spastic rec)

Shoving should be okay, probably smallish +EV, but high variance play. Also, it's your perception of the villain, if you haven't played with him a lot prior to this and haven't seen any showdowns his 3bet frequency can mean anything. He might be opening a lot of pots in LP looser than he should because of the passive weak players on the blinds, but he might be 3betting because he just got hands this last hour.

So this metagame bs live players usually dabble themselves in based on 30 hands history and no showdowns will do you no favours. Just play based on your range and positions. You have a rock bottom of the stronger part of your range for utg, he 3 bets having 4 players behind him. To me it looks strong and usually is strong. I don't think folding is too bad here, especially if you can attack weaker more passive players at the table later.

Sample size is of course always important and relevant to one's decision making process. But to imply that near term data points don't play a role in betting behavior is silly. You want every piece of information you can get. Just because it might not be weighted as heavily as other data points, doesn't mean it shouldn't be considered.

I've played with V before (although not too much) as well as seen him around in many tournaments. Hes a reg and definitely on the looser side, although even for him I knew his 3 betting frequency in the last hour or so was quite absurd. One time (although probably a year ago) I saw him 3 bet UTG from UTG +1 10 handed, then tanked absurdly long when UTG ripped like 35-40 BB and he folded QQ face up. A pretty terrible play there but that was also super deep in a tournament (like last 2-3 tables of a 1500 player tournament with like 300K+ for first) and he plays well post-flop I think. As for this table, I'm not sure if this was a function of him picking up a lot of hands or if the whole table was playing passively and he could get away with a lot of stuff. He basically hasn't shown down any hands when he has 3 bet, the opponent has pretty much folded every time and he's won it preflop. My previous hands against him:

#1: On the stone cold money bubble, I raise JJ in the HJ, he 3 bets on the button (made it 3.5x vs 2.5x here, although we were much deeper, probably ~ 60-65BB). I flat, flop comes something like 972r, check/call, then it checked down when the board ran out 97258 and I won with Jacks.

#2: I raise Button, SB flats, he squeezes BB and we both fold.

#3: I raise HJ, he 3 bets button, I fold.

Also I flatted a Lojack (UTG+1) raise earlier on the Button with QJs maybe like 30 minutes ago and he squeezed out of the BB to a pretty big size and I folded...

I'm below average at this point, Average stack size is like 40BB (600K) at this point, Villian is probably playing like 60BB or 950K or so.

Button and BB are probably playing like 20-25BB or so he has enough room to 3bet/fold to those guys although it's close, SB is playing like 10-12BB so he'd be committed versus him, although SB obviously must be extremely tight there with no fold equity.

Also AQo isn't even close to the bottom of my UTG range 7 handed. Maybe I'm playing a bit too loose there, but given the passive nature of the table (besides V), I'm probably raising any suited ace there, like 55+, AJ+, KQ, and most if not all suited broadways...

Jam > Fold >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Flat imo.

Flatting seems pretty bad given villains description and stack sizes...more often than not you're going to end up in a rough spot post flop.

Pretty close between jamming and folding though. I prefer to rip it but wouldn't hate you for folding given how the rest of the table is playing.

This smells like a spot where I'd unhappily fold from utg, but if i was hj and he was button, with same hand (or button vs his BB), I'd rip it with ease. Sometimes part of playing strong tourney poker, is letting yourself get owned by someone on your left. Better spots than this ahead.

You can weigh it in your decision process, but only after you figured out fundamentals and after that, if fundamental analysys says you can go either way, you can use tells (unless they are some blatently obvious tells from a total rookie) to tip the scale. That's how I see it. Like figure out our range, his probable range, how we do against it, stack sizes. Then adjust it according to ICM. Then I would look at the tournament structure (faster blinds or slower blinds) and how soft/tough remaining field is. And only after that I would consider if his 3bet frequency in last hour is of any relevance.

It kinda sucks that AQo is so high in your utg range, makes you want to ship it more, but again, folding here given everything else can only be a small - very low variance mistake.

Thanks for all the feedbacks guys. I agree this is a close spot - only flatting here is really not good as discussed in the comments as we'll get owned a lot and I pretty quickly realized this in game so it was pretty much a push/fold spot for me.

I shipped it in, although I didn't feel really good about it and Villian had QQ. Maybe folding is best here even though its feels nitty, i mean shoving/folding I still think is close but given our edge on the table I would like to think I would find a better spot. I felt really stupid after and felt like I got owned, but talking to other people and on here I think it's a close spot and really depends on what we think of V.

Seriously doubt the EV of folding (zero) is greater than flatting. If we think his range is wide enough to jam profitably, it will be profitable to call here getting 3 to 1, with stack depth that allows us to c/r jam many flops (or "slowplay" with top pair+ on drier boards). Especially since we think he's a bit overaggro exploitative, I think he will over cbet the flop. I'm not arguing flatting > shoving, but the math is not going to show folding >>>>> flatting.

We flop top pair+, nut fd, oesd 32% of the time.

Gotta make a read here, theory wise it probably doesn't matter a whole lot. If you think he's messing around too much a shove becomes great, if you think he's got it because he's been so active, realises this and isn't bluffing, fold. If you think he's well balanced here and is just playing his ranges, ignoring how much he's been 3betting recently, probably jam but fold if the tournament is particularly soft. I think if his range is wide enough to make a flat +EV then a shove is probably better, but it can't be that far apart if you're good postflop.

or maybe try to think about what his 3b range looks like/should be mp vs utg?

Yeah, that's the lowest EV option that you should only take if you have no reads.

so reads come first?

your being sarcastic right?

No, you should only default to theory if you don't know what his strategy is, otherwise you should maximize vs his strategy. Sometimes I'll 4bshove 100% of my opening range because of gameflow or another read, and sometimes I think he has it and make some tight folds. Of course vs anyone you respect you're going to construct a proper range because you lose too much money if you're wrong, but that's plan B and will not make you as much money as thought processes like "He has a 3b/call range of JJ+/AK here and is probably messing around a ton here, so he'll call my shove almost never".