Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > Tournament Poker > High Stakes MTT

High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of high stakes MTT hands and techniques

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-09-2010, 08:52 PM   #1
old hand
 
jon_midas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: the real world
Posts: 1,317
correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

obviously my pf call of the UTG raise is very close as i have 15-1 inplied, then Roy Winston shoves and I'm not a math guy but given the bounty plus the equity I thought this was the correct call, thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker $75,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 9 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

UTG+2: t3031 M = 40.41
MP1: t2376 M = 31.68
MP2: t2955 M = 39.40
CO: t2655 M = 35.40
BTN: t2595 M = 34.60
SB: t2083 M = 27.77
BB: t4752 M = 63.36
UTG: t3823 M = 50.97
Hero (UTG+1): t2485 M = 33.13

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is UTG+1 with 3 3
UTG raises to t150, Hero calls t150, 5 folds, SB raises to t2083 all in, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls t1933

Flop: (t4366) 2 Q K

Turn: (t4366) 5

River: (t4366) A
jon_midas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 08:56 PM   #2
Pooh-Bah
 
fivetypes's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: My feeling is you have small pair
Posts: 4,768
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

Added t-shirt equity makes this a fist-pump
fivetypes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 08:58 PM   #3
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
marek_heinz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
Posts: 7,243
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

So he has like AK always here? Not sure how to guees his range at all, but its probably ok given the bounty but very high variance
marek_heinz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 08:59 PM   #4
old hand
 
jon_midas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: the real world
Posts: 1,317
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

Quote:
Originally Posted by fivetypes View Post
Added t-shirt equity makes this a fist-pump
lol what is t-shirt equity?
jon_midas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 09:00 PM   #5
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 15,699
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

Don't forget to factor in the +life EV of knocking him out.
Todd Terry is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 09:05 PM   #6
old hand
 
jon_midas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: the real world
Posts: 1,317
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

lol.... and maybe a better question, at what stacksize is this neutral ev?
jon_midas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 09:10 PM   #7
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
marek_heinz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
Posts: 7,243
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jon_midas View Post
lol.... and maybe a better question, at what stacksize is this neutral ev?
Thats tough to answer since I suppose he isnt shoving 50+bb over an open and a call
marek_heinz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 09:13 PM   #8
old hand
 
jon_midas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: the real world
Posts: 1,317
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

Quote:
Originally Posted by marek_heinz View Post
Thats tough to answer since I suppose he isnt shoving 50+bb over an open and a call
well if the blinds were proportionally bigger, but we had more equity in our stack like if blinds were 50/100 and we had 6k each
jon_midas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 09:19 PM   #9
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
marek_heinz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
Posts: 7,243
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

Well, its tough to quantify the value of your stack with so many runners and such a wild shoving range. I'd say, that if this was on the bubble, it'd be a fold, so somewhere in between lol
marek_heinz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 09:22 PM   #10
Actually Shows Proof
 
spadebidder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: This looks interesting.
Posts: 7,891
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

The bounty equity and the chip equity (chance to win tourney) aren't cofactors that can be added together, they are two different sets of goals. You would use one strategy if your goal was only to win bounties, another strategy to maximixe the chance to win the tourney, and the intersection of those probably isn't useful.
spadebidder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 09:24 PM   #11
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
marek_heinz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
Posts: 7,243
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
The bounty equity and the chip equity (chance to win tourney) aren't cofactors that can be added together, they are two different sets of goals. You would use one strategy if your goal was only to win bounties, another strategy to maximixe the chance to win the tourney.
Thats false, your stack has an ICM value if you win the allin, lose the allin or fold preflop. The value of the bounty just gets added to the 'winning allin' value, thus doesnt require you to have as much % to call profitably
marek_heinz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 09:26 PM   #12
Actually Shows Proof
 
spadebidder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: This looks interesting.
Posts: 7,891
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

Quote:
Originally Posted by marek_heinz View Post
Thats false, your stack has an ICM value if you win the allin, lose the allin or fold preflop. The value of the bounty just gets added to the 'winning allin' value, thus doesnt require you to have as much % to call profitably
I disagree that the bounty changes the ICM calculation at all. It does not give you more chips, only more dollars.
spadebidder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 09:26 PM   #13
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
adanthar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Now with 100% more seaside views
Posts: 18,612
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
The bounty equity and the chip equity (chance to win tourney) aren't cofactors that can be added together, they are two different sets of goals. You would use one strategy if your goal was only to win bounties, another strategy to maximixe the chance to win the tourney, and the intersection of those probably isn't useful.
Sure it is. Winning the tournament per se is useless. You're presumably only interested in winning the tournament because first place pays the most money. As it happens, the play that wins the most money is not necessarily the one that maximizes the odds of winning the tournament. If this were a bubble situation and the question was about ICM, that would be obvious, so why is it different when there's a bounty involved?
adanthar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 09:27 PM   #14
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
marek_heinz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
Posts: 7,243
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

*sigh* ICM calculates the $ value of your chips.
marek_heinz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2010, 09:28 PM   #15
grinder
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: washedupville
Posts: 437
Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?

I always just add one starting stack in chips (3000 in this case) to the pot to figure my pot odds when the bounty is equal to the buy in for the tournament. For instance, in this case you're getting 2.5:1 making this a simple call. Can anyone give me any reason why this wouldnt be correct?

These assumptions can definitely be too simplistic but I'd like to hear a concrete argument against them.

Last edited by apestyles; 02-09-2010 at 09:40 PM.
apestyles is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:25 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2012, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
Forums Directory