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| High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of high stakes MTT hands and techniques |
02-09-2010, 08:52 PM
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#1
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old hand
Join Date: May 2009
Location: the real world
Posts: 1,317
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correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
obviously my pf call of the UTG raise is very close as i have 15-1 inplied, then Roy Winston shoves and I'm not a math guy but given the bounty plus the equity I thought this was the correct call, thoughts?
Full Tilt Poker $75,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 9 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked
UTG+2: t3031 M = 40.41
MP1: t2376 M = 31.68
MP2: t2955 M = 39.40
CO: t2655 M = 35.40
BTN: t2595 M = 34.60
SB: t2083 M = 27.77
BB: t4752 M = 63.36
UTG: t3823 M = 50.97
Hero (UTG+1): t2485 M = 33.13
Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is UTG+1 with 3  3
UTG raises to t150, Hero calls t150, 5 folds, SB raises to t2083 all in, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls t1933
Flop: (t4366) 2  Q  K
Turn: (t4366) 5
River: (t4366) A
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02-09-2010, 08:56 PM
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#2
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: My feeling is you have small pair
Posts: 4,768
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
Added t-shirt equity makes this a fist-pump
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02-09-2010, 08:58 PM
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#3
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
Posts: 7,243
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
So he has like AK always here? Not sure how to guees his range at all, but its probably ok given the bounty but very high variance
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02-09-2010, 08:59 PM
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#4
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old hand
Join Date: May 2009
Location: the real world
Posts: 1,317
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
Quote:
Originally Posted by fivetypes
Added t-shirt equity makes this a fist-pump
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lol what is t-shirt equity?
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02-09-2010, 09:00 PM
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#5
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 15,699
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
Don't forget to factor in the +life EV of knocking him out.
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02-09-2010, 09:05 PM
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#6
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old hand
Join Date: May 2009
Location: the real world
Posts: 1,317
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
lol.... and maybe a better question, at what stacksize is this neutral ev?
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02-09-2010, 09:10 PM
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#7
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
Posts: 7,243
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jon_midas
lol.... and maybe a better question, at what stacksize is this neutral ev?
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Thats tough to answer since I suppose he isnt shoving 50+bb over an open and a call
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02-09-2010, 09:13 PM
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#8
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old hand
Join Date: May 2009
Location: the real world
Posts: 1,317
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
Quote:
Originally Posted by marek_heinz
Thats tough to answer since I suppose he isnt shoving 50+bb over an open and a call
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well if the blinds were proportionally bigger, but we had more equity in our stack like if blinds were 50/100 and we had 6k each
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02-09-2010, 09:19 PM
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#9
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
Posts: 7,243
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
Well, its tough to quantify the value of your stack with so many runners and such a wild shoving range. I'd say, that if this was on the bubble, it'd be a fold, so somewhere in between lol
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02-09-2010, 09:22 PM
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#10
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Actually Shows Proof
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: This looks interesting.
Posts: 7,891
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
The bounty equity and the chip equity (chance to win tourney) aren't cofactors that can be added together, they are two different sets of goals. You would use one strategy if your goal was only to win bounties, another strategy to maximixe the chance to win the tourney, and the intersection of those probably isn't useful.
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02-09-2010, 09:24 PM
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#11
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
Posts: 7,243
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder
The bounty equity and the chip equity (chance to win tourney) aren't cofactors that can be added together, they are two different sets of goals. You would use one strategy if your goal was only to win bounties, another strategy to maximixe the chance to win the tourney.
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Thats false, your stack has an ICM value if you win the allin, lose the allin or fold preflop. The value of the bounty just gets added to the 'winning allin' value, thus doesnt require you to have as much % to call profitably
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02-09-2010, 09:26 PM
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#12
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Actually Shows Proof
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: This looks interesting.
Posts: 7,891
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
Quote:
Originally Posted by marek_heinz
Thats false, your stack has an ICM value if you win the allin, lose the allin or fold preflop. The value of the bounty just gets added to the 'winning allin' value, thus doesnt require you to have as much % to call profitably
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I disagree that the bounty changes the ICM calculation at all. It does not give you more chips, only more dollars.
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02-09-2010, 09:26 PM
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#13
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Now with 100% more seaside views
Posts: 18,612
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder
The bounty equity and the chip equity (chance to win tourney) aren't cofactors that can be added together, they are two different sets of goals. You would use one strategy if your goal was only to win bounties, another strategy to maximixe the chance to win the tourney, and the intersection of those probably isn't useful.
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Sure it is. Winning the tournament per se is useless. You're presumably only interested in winning the tournament because first place pays the most money. As it happens, the play that wins the most money is not necessarily the one that maximizes the odds of winning the tournament. If this were a bubble situation and the question was about ICM, that would be obvious, so why is it different when there's a bounty involved?
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02-09-2010, 09:27 PM
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#14
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
Posts: 7,243
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
*sigh* ICM calculates the $ value of your chips.
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02-09-2010, 09:28 PM
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#15
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grinder
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: washedupville
Posts: 437
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Re: correct equity vs FTP pro Roy Winston given bounty?
I always just add one starting stack in chips (3000 in this case) to the pot to figure my pot odds when the bounty is equal to the buy in for the tournament. For instance, in this case you're getting 2.5:1 making this a simple call. Can anyone give me any reason why this wouldnt be correct?
These assumptions can definitely be too simplistic but I'd like to hear a concrete argument against them.
Last edited by apestyles; 02-09-2010 at 09:40 PM.
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