its close to da bubble of hot 109. 27 ITM 29 left. im 28/29. avg stack 13bbs ish
BB is a fish.
pretty sure he doesn't get in wider than 35% in this spot on da ****in bubble.
we can pick out 2.4bbs like 60% of time... we hv around 35% vs his calling range
we lose only around tree fiddy chips on avg when called. we bust around ~25% of da time shoving here.


jam?

boom

Considering his stack size I would jam everytime here and probably a bit wider then this. If he calls he risks to bubble because of his stack size.
Having such a short stack you will rarely get an opportunity as good as this one, take it and hope that 2 players bust in the next orbits.

Private Pile.

i expect a fish to flat the mr here more often than he calls a shove, so i'd shove

I would also shove it rather than mr in this spot. 5.6k vs 9.1k - it seems like he should have a tough spot calling above 25% range here, even some hands lilke QTo, K10o, KJo, K9s maybe some Ax that he would fold. Not completely sure tho, but i don't think he's calling 35% here, a reg would tho.

i think its a fold ..... i feel like cashing in these small field hs turbos is really important and once we fold here we are gtd a min cash almost always coz we have 1 full orbit

how big is the mincash ? how much timebank do you have left ? any other allins on the other 2 tables ?

answer all these and look at J8o, think this is too ***** strong to ever fold , tank forever till 10 sec left, raise to 5500, win moniez when he folds , tank till no seconds left if he jams and call

i like ur view but the problem is we are 28/29 so if we do bust , even if we get to h4h , we most likely will stone bubble ... i probably would jam this if it was the 30k gtd 109 turbo which has like 10k on weekdays and 17k on sunday ut but in the hot109 with like 4k ut i would much rather prefer avoiding this spot and gtd myself an apprx 180-250$ min cash

min cash is 190

Its close, but I agree just because its so important for your ROI to be cashing in turbos.

Lets solve this problem first.

5 tables avg 6-7 in each total 29 27 survive to get paid.

We have 3.2 bb if we folded. What is the chance to make the money if we fold and play only AA or call a push as bb with QQ-AA. We play real slow crazy tight every move and there is about 5% chance someone is eliminated in any given table per hand dealt (~5% is the chance at least 2 players get a top 5% hand in the same table so they end up in all ins preflop and 50% of the time someone dies then, hence 2.5% per hand per table to kill one. Of course other ways to die exist like some pushes 15% and gets called by 10% near blinds positions or they play normal poker and get a cold deck etc. So that is a lower minimum, its higher per table actually so take double that 5%. So 10 hands in 5 tables is 50 hands and the chance to not have one out is like 0.95^50=8% so you see easily 1 and maybe 2 are out with way over 60% chance it would seem if we simply took a totally crazy stall path to death by antes lol (i will calculate it better soon because we have also the chance we get an AA-KK avg say in 10 hands that is near 10%).

If we sit down and do nothing but AA push/call from anywhere and QQ-AA call as BB only the chance to not get eliminated has multiple side contributions also other than waiting. Include also the chance if all goes to hell and we are all in in some final ante stupid microstack we win the all in vs whoever 1-2 opponents- that is a non negligible part of survival because it buys many more hands after that too and its not worse on avg than some 20-25% anyway vs 2 random opponents. I mean the term blinded out is stupid because it is still 40% in the last orbit alone on avg to get a chance to recover (from past simulations) even when down to 1-2 bb.

Keep in mind that this calculation then works for the BB also here because he can use that calculation as worse case scenario for calling the push and in my opinion he should call wide enough because he can afford to not get eliminated right away and in doing so eliminate hero even and make his case better overall in one single move. To fold actually improves his chances to get eliminated because it makes hero big again near 6+ and higher than him. So like hell the guy folds some top 25% hand here, maybe even 40% if it has the right properties vs some 50-70%pushing range anyway or even 30% take a pick. If he wins he goes up nicely to 11-12 also and can go deeper. Do not underestimate the incentive of BB to eliminate us and find a way to greatness also at the same time. The sooner he liberates himself from bubble fear the better for him also to bully others with new covering stack.