Blinds 500/1000/100
Hero 100k
Vilain 130k chipleader on table
Vilain is random and registered late but just in 3 hands he ran like god and other bad players just gave him all their chips...after watching him i recognized he knows what he is doing but still. Difficult is i dont know how deep he can think and i had a fishy image of him. He as utg limps and me utg+1 raise 4400, cutoff calls and after folding to utg he also flats. AA9 rainbow is flop, utg donks 5k and i flat, cutoff folds. Turn is another 9 and he bets 9k, after tanking a little i flat again. River is k and he bets 12k. Now i wasnt sure if has ace or not ; and if he has an ace can i ever make him fold his aces full??? Can i ever make him fold Ax representig AK here? If then by shoving allin or another amount of raise (because if i have AK then i want him to call...)? No because i could be alot of times bluffing him from chop pot? Is the idea here bluff somebody just too fancy? What if we were 4-500bb deep?

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Sure ship it

Even if i dont have the ace? Are u ever folding if i shove on this river when you're holding AX??

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Your betting pattern in this hand does not suggest you have AK. If he is thinking in any manner, he knows you would not have simply flatted the flop and turn. When you tanked on the turn, he learned that you have neither an Ace nor the 9. His river bet is small enough that he likely has a boat beat...he WANTS you to shove over him.

What is the buy-in for this tournament?

I think shipping in this spot is suicide without an Ace. People will fold this hand a very small % of the time. I think if you were a lot deeper it will work a higher percent but still a bit low and your risk to reward ratio is bad, but in this spot, I think it will be *Villain Shrugs and calls* greater than 95% of the time. If this is a lower buy-in tournament you will get called way more often. If this is a 10K, I think he might tank for a bit. If its a $200 tournament, he will snap.

Rule number 17: always rep the impossible rep.

If you'r assuming that Ax is in his range, 95% of the time he does not have the 'self control' to walk away from this one ....Edit: make that 98 %