hi community,

i have a question how you play a hand on the bubble.

it was a € 800,- bounty mtt (buyin € 500,- + bounty € 300) with 107 players and 13 itm.
when there were 16 players left the blinds were 2500/5000 with 500 ante and an average stack of 200k.

we were 8 handed at 2 tables and a very solid player utg+1 opend with a stack of total 88k for 12,5k and the CO with a stack of 80k-90k called.
i’m in the small blind with 125k and look at 77.

i know the original raiser who is a good solid player, i think his range in this situation is 55+, ATs+, AJo+, and some broadway combinations like KJo.
the caller is an average player but not tricky and i’m sure he won’t slowplay QQ+ in this situation. i’m sure he has something like KJs or a medium pocket and will fold to a shove. (it's his biggest ever played mtt)
for the sake of completeness, the BB is a very good known player with a stack of 90k-100k.

equity wise my range has 12,5k +ev against original raisers perceived calling range of 99+, AQs+, AKo.

BUT my question is, do you shove in this spot, where we are in the near of the prizemoney or you just call and see a flop?

in this situation i think i was 11th or 12th in the chip count, the smaller stacks had all between 80k -120k.

thanks for your answers!
best regards from austria
graebsch

no opinions?!

I'm probably clicking call. You're calling 10k with implied odds to win over 100k if you set up and stack small guy or more from other one. I think we are mostly only worried about the utg+1 raiser as like you said the button plays straightforwardly and is unlikely to call our jam. Even with this being the case, he is opening utg+1 on a 16BB stack so we can't expect him to be folding a jam often enough to be profitable here, and when we are calling he's often got us crushed. I think his open range here is prob way tighter than you say and more likely 99+,AJs+

Given your reads, looks like an easy shove

yeah, ev wise of course, but should i dont look at icm in this situation!?

if there are 13 itm and 30 players left i prefer a jam too

I don't think ICM is nearly enough of a factor for this to not be a shove with your reads. However, make sure that you're ranging UTG+1 correctly -- his opening range is likely to be on the tighter side here since in his current situation he will want to preserve a re-shove stack size of 18bbs, especially if players to his right (you among them) are aggressive. He might be open folding hands like KJo and 55 here.

You have 3 free calculations in ICMizer per day so you should run the numbers.

I don't like a call in this situation. It opens the door to a BB shove. Knowing BB stack size would be relevant.

Is UTG+1 ever open shoving? This seems like a live tournament given your read on the flatter. Sounds like you had a conversation with him. How do players normally play this situation around the bubble? if UTG+1 will shove some of his range from this position then I think this is a fold.

yeah, it was a live mtt.
original raiser is a cash game regular in my home casino, and the flatter was a young guy from my region and we had a long talk about playing poker in the dinner break.

a hour ago i saw original raiser open raise/fold a 15bb stack in middle position.
but maybe the range i gave him is a little too loose, maybe he opens a bit tighter.