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On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?
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05-07-2017 , 07:50 PM
#1
halperin
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7 handed on the bubble

UTG

Blinds 1k/2k
UTG Hero(75k) A7ss raise to 5k

CO calls(72k)

Flop K45dds

I cbet 2/3 he calls

Turn 8s, i bet 1/2 he calls

River 3s, I river nut flush, do you bet or check?

fold pre?


he raises i assume all sets 2 pairs and straights, not much value in betting river is there?
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
05-08-2017 , 09:41 AM
#2
Black Thought
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shove when u miss flush since u cover him on bubble. Check when you hit flush
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
05-08-2017 , 09:46 AM
#3
halperin
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to let him bet what exactly?
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
05-08-2017 , 09:56 AM
#4
Black Thought
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i think the main question is what can he call you with on bubble for his tourney life that he wouldn't bet himself if checked to

If your numbers are correct, effective stack to pot ratio is <0.6, he has 40k left and a pot of ~67k. Outside of his own flush draws, I don't see a hand strong enough to call off for his life, that he couldn't shove turn with. So probability of him value trapping himself or bluffing should be higher than him calling off here on bubble (betting less than 2/3 pot here on river seems SOOO strong here, given u cover him, that I just don't see him calling)
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
05-08-2017 , 12:07 PM
#5
halperin
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yeah he calls infrequently. most often with KQ KJ if he has those. maybe he talks himself into a hero call with mid pair. but i believe even less likely is that he turns his 1 pair into a bluff here when any pair has good showdown value here. and there are really no draws that missed. cept diamonds which he likely would have raised at some point or just folded on the turn if he is that concerned with bubbling.

i think his range is mostly all 1 pair hands here. none of those 1 pair hands are going to bet if checked to. however there is a chance that some of them will call a river bet.
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
05-08-2017 , 01:42 PM
#6
Minatorr
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Shove
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
05-11-2017 , 08:57 PM
#7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by halperin
i think his range is mostly all 1 pair hands here. none of those 1 pair hands are going to bet if checked to. however there is a chance that some of them will call a river bet.
If your read is he never bets when checked to, then bet. You have absolutely nothing to lose.

If he folds, don't show. If it goes ck/ck, you will have to show. There is some (thin) utility in not letting the rest of the table see how you played your lucky hand.
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
05-11-2017 , 09:07 PM
#8
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watevs
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I think you've pretty much nailed his range

Just make some small to medium bet that he can't help but look up

I like that more than shoving as his range is weak and it at least gives him a chance to bluffraise
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
05-12-2017 , 09:40 AM
#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by watevs
his range is weak
lol, no
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
05-14-2017 , 05:32 PM
#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by watevs
I think you've pretty much nailed his range

Just make some small to medium bet that he can't help but look up

I like that more than shoving as his range is weak and it at least gives him a chance to bluffraise
+1 I'd bet between 35% to 60% of pot. Agree that villain most likely has Kx,
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
05-15-2017 , 12:22 AM
#11
Blurredelevens
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If he calls 1/2 on turn, he doesn't like his hand but can't put it down. Value town a smaller bet.....that's all you'll get.
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
05-15-2017 , 02:10 AM
#12
lolposting2016
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Lol that's the ticket. Make the nuts and bet small
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
05-15-2017 , 10:07 PM
#13
Blurredelevens
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lolposting2016
Lol that's the ticket. Make the nuts and bet small
Or shove and not pick up anything. GTO, right? LoLz
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
05-15-2017 , 10:50 PM
#14
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on the river pot is like 70k and you guys have about 40k left? easy shove here with the backdoor flush
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet? Quote
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