As played I'm def snapping off river and if I lose then whatever. I'd most likely bet turn too against most std villains, but against better players with this image I'd probably just take this line to call a river bet since I expect to get at most one more street out of them for value anyway. I'd also bet more on flop too.

30 posts and I'm the only person who hates the flop sizing? On this depth, 55% pot is too small imo.

Hmm you think villain's calling range is elastic, esp when we are this deep? Are you suggesting he considers folding on the flop more with a bigger c-bet?
What would be your sizing?

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No, I am saying that his calling range is comparatively inelastic and we have top two pairs so we should bet way more so that we can win more moneys from worse hands.

Villains are gonna have so many draws, pair+draw combos, worse top pairs, etc. in his range that aren't folding and that we are ahead of. Since we're ahead of his calling range and in position we want to put more money into the pot, and it will also make the rest of the turn easier to play. Also, lots of those hands are the type that frequently pay off 2 streets but less frequently pay off 3, so we might as well make both the streets big.

Also, since there are 2 villains, if we bet smaller we are more likely to get called in 2 spots which will make the hand harder to play on a lot of turns/rivers

I can see some compelling arguments as to why 85% > 55%, but I have a tough time finding a lot of reasons to argue in favor of 55% > 85%.

Yes, I agree. More on flop is better. Especially live since ppl fold less

One compelling reason is on this board your hand looks much stronger if you bet bigger and thus you are less likely to get multiple streets of value.

You know, I take that back. For me this is an obv bomb spot since I'm a hyper aggro spewtard on wet boards, but for a nitty perceived random I can see betting smaller as being okay, but I'd have to think about it more.

Not to wax all meta, but I think this is a spot where the types of hands that are going to call us are the types of hands where the # of bets they call is pretty static regardless of bet sizing (within a reasonable range) and honestly polarizing our range isn't a bad thing and might cause us to get called more often than if we are perceived to have a wider value range that includes hands like AK or AJhh or even KK. People talk themselves into marginal calls against polarized ranges that they might otherwise fold against a weaker value range that includes a lower proportion of bluffs. Betting big and polarizing here puts him into check/call mode and removes some tricky plays where if you bet small he might try to float oop and xr you with gutters and **** on scary turns and make your life hard.



(in the following when I say "any size" i obv mean 50%-80% or whatever, not like 3x pot bets)

Like if he has JT or dd and misses, he's calling 2 bets of any size and folding rivers. You win almost exactly 3 times as many chips with 80%/80% as you do with 50%/50% which is just huge.

If he has AJ, obviously his calling propensity is gonna depend heavily on the board runout, but I think 80%/80% on most turns is gonna yield way more profit than 50%/50%

If he has something like AT or AxHH or something like QJ or KQ or even Td9x where he calls 1 bet and hopes that you are just cbetting with total air and will give up if you're called once and check back 2 streets, he's calling 1 bet regardless of if it's 55% or 80%, so again you win way more when he calls 1 and folds turn w/o improving, and if he improves on turn and calls 2 then you win 3x as much again.

If he has a set and/or hits a draw, then obv you lose more, but you are in position and it's live poker so you can mitigate how much you lose compared with if the hand was played online. People give off live tells when they smash draws in big pots, I'm not saying you'll always be able to fold, but it does mitigate how much you'll lose.

Also, I think narrowing the field is preferable here. If you bet 55% of pot and get called by V1, Kyle can call with some hands like KdTx, KdJx etc that he otherwise has to fold, and it's gonna make the hand real hard to play on a lot of turns 3 handed where your opponents got priced in with a large range that you have no idea what it is