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Big 109 bubble time Big 109 bubble time

04-26-2015 , 01:48 AM
Around 20 players left to the money bubble.
UTG static 18/18/20, his early postion prf is 0%. (20 hands)

Poker Stars, $100 Buy-in (350/700 blinds, 85 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players

MP1: 8,924 (12.7 bb)
MP2: 7,967 (11.4 bb)
Hero (MP3): 2,179 (3.1 bb)
CO: 33,139 (47.3 bb)
BTN: 21,856 (31.2 bb)
SB: 12,625 (18 bb)
BB: 16,034 (22.9 bb)
UTG+1: 11,946 (17.1 bb)
UTG+2: 13,900 (19.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K J
UTG+1 raises to 1,750, Hero???

I am sure we are behind with this hand.
But we are in the red zone.
We must gamble once to the money.
Do you think this is good spot to gamble?

Thanks a lot!
04-26-2015 , 02:25 AM
Red zone? Lol we are more like in the dead zone. We have about 1 orbit in our stack. UTG's raise however represents a whole lot of strength, given his stack size.

We are getting about 2:1 on our money but KJo is only 31.34% against {88+, AJo+, ATs+, KQs}. The thing is we are very short on chips and not making a stand will eventually deplete our stack uncontested. What's your position out of the remaining players? If you're not even stacked amongst the money ranks then you need to take the gamble.

Also, if one of the remaining players decides to see a flop with a hand like {22+, A8s+, A5s, ATo+, suited broadways and KQo}, then your overall equity is 25% (getting about 2.5 to 1).

If someone behind decides to reshove and UTG+1 folds, you are getting 3:1, hardly ever a -cEV. 29.3% against TT+/AQ+.

Would be interesting to see what the rest of the forum thinks.

Last edited by MTT_9797; 04-26-2015 at 02:30 AM. Reason: If no ICM consideration and not guaranteed cash, I would push a lot lighter than KJo (Ax, K4s+, K8o+, Q7s+, Q9o-T9o, JTs-54s)
04-26-2015 , 08:23 AM
fold imo. You find +EV chip spots almoste allways with this stack, and this gamble looks kind of BEish in chip EV... you have still 4 more hands until you hit the blinds...

      
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