I think 3b/getting it in vs OR is fine for 23bbs since you're not risking all that much from your 80bb stack, + you have non-zero FE vs him and proper odds to call off vs his 4b range (assuming 88+/AQ+). However, when V2 overflats, he introduces a new variable to the equation that is definitely worth considering, and potentially changing your planned course of action over. I know you think that he's folding to your 5b iso often, but I think that that assumption is unfounded unless you have other reads on him that you didn't reveal in the OP (i.e he setmines w/out implied odds or overplays Axs pre). I know you said he likes to call raises pre and see flops, but calling raises pre and calling 3b's pre w the OR left to act are two different things imo and so are prob the frequencies. So unless V2 is totally braindead I probably change my initial plan and fold to the 4b jam, since V2 would probably 4b KK+ (maybe even QQ) and fold the rest to our 5b. Since you say that he played pretty straight-forward post flop, he probably isn't absurdly bad though and has some sort of plan when he overflats. My point here is that I don't see his plan being overflat/fold very often here, but I might obv be wrong as I wasn't there.

fwiw I wrote what came to my mind before seeing results, & my initial thought was that V2 had QQ/KK.. AA is surprising a bit, but after further thought it just seems like a case of underestimating V2's ability to preplan action

+1. If we have 47.5% vs his get-it-in range the 3bet is clearly +EV. Whether or not it's best really depends on a ton of things.

Whether or not we 5bet jam completely depends on V2. You should basically be able to psychologically profile him as to whether he's the type that will fold QQ / ever flat KK/AA here. If in doubt, i'd fold because we're quite deep with him and getting it in 20/80 is a huge mistake, and also V1's shoving range should be pretty strong (yes there's overlay, but he also knows hes getting called and V2 is never "light")

I don't expect the old guy to have AA KK etc so often, but the fact he flats means the original raiser is way less likely to jam AQs AQo (and certainly worse), even 99.

Well there's also the part where we have 6-7 other players to go through who can all decide to continue with 3.8% of hands or whatnot which makes the pot odds slightly more complex (but probably not much more). And the fact that 88/AQ or whatever range is absurdly precise so there should be some fudge factor.

My read when reading OP was villain is probably more likely to flat KK at least than do anything else with it. And possibly AA as well. He has no incentive to 4b it. I'm really not surprised at all by the results.

so what do you think he does w/ those hands?

Good post.

good stuff

I should rephrase, what I meant was I'm not so paranoid that he has those hands that often (although he certainly can/will, maybe even "fairly often").
Main point was simply the original raisers range is a bit stronger than most people here think, probably.

Also even if he has AA KK (QQ/JJ which he doesn't fold, occasionally) even just sometimes it's not hard for TT to be a bad in get since it's so many BB

If you know going into the hand that you have 47% equity and you have zero chips in the pot, then putting in a bunch of chips and then getting jammed on and going "OH WE HAVE GOOD ODDZ" and calling isn't +EV. With the BB+antes in there, it's super close to break even.

Getting in all your chips in a breakeven spot in a WSOP 1.5k is not good.

Except that he said the exact opposite of that. He said V had been wide twice in the past, but IN THIS SPOT was not going to raise fold:

Same thing here:
If he's getting in his entire opening range as OP says he thinks he is, and if we're behind his opening range, then 3b/calling is really bad.


Also, this entire discussion of V1 is without even talking about whether OP might be wrong about his assumptions about V2 (and he was wrong), and when that happens, he punts an entire stack. It seems like OP is coming here and wanting people to tell him that he played it fine and he just got coolered and how do both of those guys just have the top of their range, when reading the HH I don't think you got unlucky I think you made a sequence of very avoidable errors.

Galen,

Great contributions to this thread. These are the posts that make 2+2 worthwhile.

Come on. He's obviously not getting in 100% of his opening range, even if OP thinks he's very likely to be strong this time. Of course when we're assessing if the 3bet is +EV we also have to factor in the small % of the time someone else 4bets us and we have to fold, etc. I'm quite confident the 3b is +EV. Flatting could be better - I think it's close but would prob 3b/call slightly more than I flatted. I'd flat 88 always, especially if players are passive behind, and prob flat 99 more than I raise.

I do think "on paper" as played we should fold to the shove, but being there could lead me to make a different decision.

You say V1 seems competent. You would push 88+ and A-Qo in e.p. in a 9 handed game with a 22 BB stack? If so, then Why?

Would a competent player push any hand UTG or UTG+1 with a 22 BB stack? If so, Why?

Yes. Against a 7000 stack I fold 10/10 because of your position and the tournament level you are in. There is a 20-25% chance that you are going to run into a bigger hand based on your position and the UTG+1 action (stating he has a hand too)!

A marginal calling situation to me! You cannot play it post flop with any certainty that you are ahead and facing another 19BBs worth of betting! You can't reraise and try to isolate against this opponent either.

The hands to be 3 betting with based on this situation are QQ+ and AK! JJ is probably the toughest hand of all to have here. That hand begs to be played with a 3 bet and Call all in. Once the player behind calls your 3 bet then I am going to be very, very, careful! I have folded QQ correctly in situations like this post flop and not 4 bet isolated with that hand as a result of a player calling behind!

The player behind KK AA strategy has become a much more common play. It was only rarely played that way 10 years ago!

Tens are not a three bet call all in holding against an e.p. player from an opponent who is in a middle position. It is against a small stack in the blinds! That is when you play tens in a coin toss situation. Not in a 9 handed game in the medium levels, from mid position!

In most situations tens are a set mine hand when deep stack to blinds exist. It can become an iso hand but not in the situation you are describing! Therefore, it is a fold!

This is why tournament play can be tough to master. As the blinds go up eff's go down. Hands that were playable early on are now folding hands. Hands that are tough to play based on position like A-Ko become easier to play as a result of the disparities in stack sizes!

Scott

Lol I don't care what people tell me. I posted this for a reason, I wanted OPINIONS (because after all, that's all this is) on a hand. This is all discussion. Not once did I say anywhere I got coolered or got unlucky did I?

And yeah, I didn't say I thought he was getting in his entire opening range.

Another point I forgot to address is that you said you had passive opponent's behind. That does make the tens playable as a set miner. You still get the implied odds if you flop the set if it goes 4 handed and 3 handed if you have some big stacks behind although it will be tough to disguise your hand given your position.

Why I think a call is still o.k. here. But it would be marginal against V1's stack in a heads up situation and playing for his stack if he comes over the top is just plain wrong. He already raise folded twice. You think he is 4 betting all in this time because he folded two times previously? Was he UTG when he raise folded? A lot of variables you did not take into consideration here.

Not likely he is pushing a weak hand against you and you are coin flipping at best when he does. He seems competent. Go with your read!
Scott

What do we think OR entire opening range is? I know this is kind of hard to estimate..But the reason I ask is that if we think he is opening say 44+ in regards to pairs, what makes you think he isn't 4-bet jamming 44+ instead of 88+. I mean, our 3b/calling range has to be doing like pretty much the same against 44+ as 88+ (including AQ+ or whatever), I'd imagine. And obviously if he is jamming 88 here, he must think we have a 3b/fold range.