Pkerstars big 162. 238/1550

Hero (BB) AKo 23bb
v1 (UTG) 15bb
V2 (Button) 48bb

V1 Shoves
V2 Shoves

Hero??? can i fold.

238 players

cash is in at 198 for 272 dollars.

Against 2 shoves, I think I can easily find a fold here. You don't cover the short stack by enough to end up with a good result if you lose to him even if you can beat the bigger stack.

Going 3 way, you are probably against at least 1 pair. It's hard to see you end up with more than 40% equity here, and with 23bb, you can wait for a better spot. It also depends where you are in relation to the bubble. If you are in 220th, maybe you go for it because you need to. If you are above the cut line, im definitely living to fight another day.

Im calling here everytime,You need to make something happen with 23bb and this is a great hand to do it with even against two people, I think the fold is just so nitty. You have the shorty coverd by 8bb so you win against the big stack u still have ~17bb which isnt a good result but still workable imo

This is closer if it's 202 left due to ICM, but even then i'm pretty sure it would be a call.

As it stands now it's a very easy call imo. You're going to be 40%ish 3way a lot of the time and you're slightly ahead of the reshover's range for a sidepot that leaves you with a still make the money stack. You're going to have to basically surrender your stack to make the money with 40 eliminations to go and when we have 23bb semi-deep in a major and a decent chance to have 65bb or so and additionally a reasonable chance at a 17bb sidepot when we don't win it all... we take the spot.

Easiest fold in the universe.

http://www.holdemresources.net/h/web...=25&s9=23&s10=

utg must be 7.5%, JJ+ ATs+ A5s AJo+ KJs+ KQo (15b utg is very wrong to push vs 8 with non top hand, even the weaker hands above have strong removal effects) (shocker that 99,TT are not there)

btn must be 4.2%, 99+ AQs+ AKo

and hero KK-AA lol.

Clearly this is no final table to justify the structure i linked but its the only reasonable approximation of a near bubble spot for the population at hand ie 198/238 paid is 7.5/9 so i made it 8/9 and its kind of safe in my opinion.


23bb is a big stack that can go places if you are careful. The hand is great only if the situation is not ugly. Its not the hand that decides how to play first, its the situation and then the hand.

Even if they were at 10% and 7% much wider than above you still have only 34% and icm kills it.

Even if this was a winner take all format the proper ranges need BB to have TT-AA,AKs. So imagine that now that we have other prizes too!

http://www.holdemresources.net/h/web...=25&s9=23&s10=

Yea, a 9man sng with 8 paid is def the same as a big topheavy red mtt 40 away from a 1.6x mincash.

Never change masque.

This is why the last link is winner take all format that puts the ice to it all. Even then only TT-AA,Aks survive and obviously this is no winner take all.

You can play with the structure to fit the ratio of top 3 avg prize vs the last 150-198 or so and you will see that i am not very off even on the first one as i bet the avg of top 3 is 10 to 1 vs than min prize at most 20-1 will open it to QQ-AA at best.

Static ranges won't help you there. A lot of people, especially regs would never jam the top of their range with 15 bb utg, which would make other thinking people iso wider than AQo from the button which would allow you to get it in wider in the sb.

That's just one scenario and I'm not saying its a fistpump get in but just blindly mashing numbers in spreadsheet is as helpful as ignoring math completely. To make a confident decision here we need at least some info on our opponents.

I assume the BTN has the sb covered too? he's still iso'in a strong range as we know what a 15bb shoving range from UTG looks like so given that he's gotta be halfway up that range at least assuming he's a half decent reg then I think AK become a pretty easy fold.

Rowniwn, by all means construct a push range for the utg guy that doesnt have QQ-AA in it and see what still happens.

Also you cant have it both ways. If you want to imagine that everyone opens up because he cant have QQ-AA there all that much, then he is suddenly getting called so often (say 30-35% by at least one rather than 20%) that it might have made sense to at least have QQ as a push there, maybe even KK to get full stack action by all calling vs having to see nasty flops they dont like or they like and we dont and also have to out of position guess or check fold or whatever unhappy choice as they cover us and can afford a few bluffs too but not all the effective stack necessarily.


Also what other hands he is not pushing and raising instead that belong to the Nash push range also? Are you introducing to him at 15bb hands he raises utg that are not push worthy to mix it up to not be transparent AA-QQ only and so predictable? What hands he is raising with now utg that play better this way instead of pushing or folding them? Is he raise/folding any of them at 15bb? How much is he raising with the hands he is not happy to push or call a 3bet?

By all means give me ranges here that he uses to push and raise/fold/call in a mixed system. I bet AKo will still remain near 33% or less 3way even then. Lets put some hands now, otherwise agree i am correct and its a fold even then.

Notice that there is room to open his range up and the btn range (higher from from Nash for both and leave out even QQ-AA for utg) and still AKo isnt ok to call.

Ps: Notice that any push range you select for utg still has to be made of hands that are not stupid and negative EV vs the Nash calling ranges or even these ranges opened up 20% (ie some 6% calling range goes to 7.5% etc). If you adjusted for that (utg not having say QQ-AA and being even a bit wider in extra pushing hands with blockers) its still impossible for btn to get involved without having only 88+,AJs+,AQo+ basically. He starts having less than 50% if otherwise and exposes himself to the risk of the next 2 having a top hand that further makes the idea risky. This then still leaves hero at 34-35% that still means ICM fold because its 23bb not some smaller stack and eg 2.7x the stack (when hero wins i mean) doesnt mean 2.7x tournament equity anyway.

masque,

I never said its call. I never said its a fold. I merely stated that you coming in and throwing a bunch of numbers around is not great advice.

Also I'm not gonna get into how villain is constructing his range there or whatever. We literally know nothing about the guy.


Regarding your second paragraph, I don't know where you read in my post that everyone opens up there or everyone should/shouldnt jam QQ there. Some do jam, some don't. Some r/c only JJ+, others r/f stuff this is why we need more info on villain if we want to get into specifics here.

Your wording kinda implies that you find it laughable that people open up there. You seem a bit out of touch because that is how online mtts are played today. People just r/f and r/c a lot more.

All the best,

Marc






really tight uncapped utg range:

No i never suggested that at 15bb you can have only a push fold game utg, although if you did (utg and not so much later) its not going to prove that bad either. I only suggested that if you still have a pushing range (the guy pushed after all) it has to be close to the Nash push range because if its not, it will get in real trouble even if people are not calling exactly like Nash.

Also i appreciate your charts. What do you have there when utg raises (is it a raise to what size or is it a push). The hero is BB not SB by the way and its 23bb and btn is the one reshoving. Also this is not a cash game (what were the conditions of the program you used to establish EV?). It must have been clear from my posts that chip EV wise an equity over whatever 32%+ etc 3way is always plus to call with AKo. Its the tournament equity adjustment that kills it then. In your secondt case though its also negative even in winner take all (cash/chip EV) mode.

Also the push or raise range you give utg is a defacto (arbitrary player style assumption as input) entry not a Nash choice and the responses of the others are the ideal responses to that range (correct? but in what tournament mode or cash game equivalent?). I can easily argue the first example for opening push range is risky for him (ie 33 for example JTs etc) and exploitable. But if you play in an exploitable table there is no reason to take marginal risky shots. Their persistent errors will reward you eventually.

So what's the math or probability of the button having KK or AA here? That's the only hands we are really in bad shape against. Also as Rowniwn said alot of people would never jam 15bb with top of their range UTG so I think it's safe to say the 15bb does not have KK or AA. Now if we have close to 50bb ourselves I think it's more of an easy fold. I am still not convinced that with our 23bb this is such a easy fold. I'm taking the flip in this spot and if button has KK or AA then so be it. You have to build stacks to win tourneys, cannot nit it up for a tiny min cash you have to take risks.

Results Ak vs QQbutton vs 99utg

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Best Possible scenario to have utg push without AA-QQ ie say JJ-77, ATs+, A5s, KJs+, AQo+ and btn to also not have KK-AA because if he had KK,AA he might have just called to allow the blinds to possibly go all in if they had AK,QQ and they were bigger stacks over 15bb i mean to capture a bit more value.

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.848% 26.29% 03.56% 10936747764 1479789452.00 { JJ-77, ATs+, A5s, KJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 36.474% 31.42% 05.05% 13071734772 2101115438.00 { QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 33.679% 26.64% 07.04% 11083536828 2926718138.00 { AKo }

As you see AKo still is at 33.7% and unworthy of a tournament spot like this for 23bb.

Calling nets somewhere between .7 and 1.2BB - can't fold this far from the money

What ranges do you have them on that this is a cEV+ call? 15xBB UTG is probably not QQ+, but is it really suited broadway? Seems like a big ace or mid pp usually. Then 1/3 of our money is in a side pot against the overpusher, where we have to be significantly behind his uncapped range.

35 in the main, 40-50% in the side

I don't understand how UTG's range can be that loose. Can he profitably open shove AJo/KQo?

betgo yes he can profitably push AJo, KQo due to antes and removal effects on calling ranges. But surprisingly not 77,88,99 even and still yes A5s passes and these better generally hands dont!

Here is how i see it in more realistic terms unless the table has known different properties.


When you have 15bb you do not play push fold utg with the entire Nash range because in real life people are not liking such risks or think they can get better results differently. So they will not push necessarily KQo or ATo or A5s even if Nash allows it as unexploitable. They may also fail to realize that otherwise good hands like 88,77 are counter-intuitively not proper pushes here.

As a result real people that are not top players and the top players that have a well mixed strategy utg will have both a push and a raising range and the ones following a proper mixed system will tend to do a bit better i think than the strict push/fold.

So lets say that to construct a realistic range and not a Nash range (although you do the Nash also to see how you call to be safe, otherwise you yourself then become exploitable) you need to think how the opponent thinks;

Basically that guy will hate pushing A5s and KQo and ATo, KJs as too risky with 8 left to act and 15bb that still can go places with a bit of patience and better selection of spots. They will be happy to push later of course with the same hands.

They may either fold these hands or raise with them hoping to take it down or see a flop with reasonable equity vs 1 player and the blinds+antes will take care of the EV to not be bad even if out of position (although often they wont be out of position because the caller will be the blinds).

Also many people will not understand well the effects of removal of certain blockers (ie why KJs, KQo, ATo are there but 77,88 are not lol).

There are certain hands they will push anyway because they are good enough to not worry really when called all that much but still happy if nobody calls anyway (ie they are not super big hands) and they are also hands that at this stack if you instead raise and are called and see a flop they will fail to connect over 60% of the time (eg AQ) and still may be ahead but now they require to bet in the "dark" and even be willing to call potential bluffs risking half or all stack or feel bad and fold etc. Also hands like mid pairs will get often overcards and generally nasty flops that will also look ugly to continue at this stack with confidence.

As a result i can see how people will be pushing here not using the Nash range but instead the hands they hate raising with but which are good enough.

Such hands are for example (including a failure to overestimate smaller pairs that are negative tournament EV to push here) 77-JJ and hands like AQ,AK that hate to get in iffy spots at such stack but are strong enough to not mind the push and call while still happy if they take down 2.5bb risk free and maybe also some rare times get lucky to be called by some AJs or AQ and dominate it. Anotherr hand they may push is KQs because unlike KQo its good enough in their minds (2-3% more equity) to not be as scary push anymore. It is certainly only dominated by AA,KK,AK,AQ and it removes many of them with 2 blockers. Certainly also AJs and ATs and maybe, maybe not so much AJo.

All these hands are convenient pushes that are stress free played this way and people like to be stress free. Its a lot tougher to play for example AQo as a raise or 99 as a raise at this spot and stack depth vs the push, although one may be able to argue that if you play very well post flop, moreover the clouded nature of the situation, you will do better to approach with no fear and play poker/raise with them and read well flops and actions rather than push.


So in my opinion i expect realistically the majority of people to be pushing here only these things really;

77-JJ,AK,AQ,AJs,ATs,KQs and the other semi good or very good hands they raise with instead in order to either fold if there is heavy action (or see a flop if just called and approach carefully) or invite such heavy action with the top ones.

And this is why now the btn cant be loose enough for AKo to feel happy.

You see btn now must be over 49-50% vs that above range in order to not worry of the blinds when escalating action that way. And some AQo for example doesnt cut it to go from 15bb to 40bb risk (or whatever 23bb effective depending on what is the SB stack also).

In fact the only hands that cut it are 99-AA,AK for btn. And you may be able to eliminate KK,AA because he might have just called with them to allow the blinds to push the rest of their stack especially if SB was over 30bb say etc

So now you have AKo vs 99-QQ,AK vs 77-JJ,AK,AQ,AJs,ATs,KQs (having taken out the very top from both and some of the riskier marginal hands also)

And this is why its horrible for AKo now on avg in real life. It may be as low as 31% suddenly on main pot and 45% on the secondary pot. Not even chip EV worthy.

If you have any indication that they are both loose or tilted or whatever different than the general picture above, then maybe it gets a bit closer. But i doubt its ever a mistake to fold here vs avg opponents.

UTG is way more likely to raise JJ instead of jamming it, and possibly TT/AQ as well.

No BTN is folding AQo in today's game, 88 is unlikely too (although I agree they are marginal calls).

Disagree with eliminating KK+ from BTNs range, although it depends on SB's stack.

32% and 48% seems about right to me after tinkering with the ranges some, and that gives us +.5BB, which is plenty at this stack depth. It's almost certainly a fold on the exact bubble though.

Btn escalating things with AQo to 40bb is very bad poker given that he is already very close to 50% with AQo vs typical ranges and he is risking to be at 28% vs some QQ-AA and sometimes JJ,AK blinds action that call his reshove from the part above 15bb and end up with a mess overall (will happen 3+% of the time to kill the prior 49-50% with AQ vs some general utg range that is missing QQ-AA even). In fact i bet the reshove is very often QQ,AK,JJ,TT,99 because these hands just want to stop any action from others there.

Also yes i agree TT,JJ,AQ may be played as raises for utg but i bet you will find that in EV TT,AQ are the same as pushes and less stressful at this spot and stack. And JJ that probably is better as raise still will get many nasty flops often to test the player postflop vs larger stacks that can afford to bluff him and he has no clue what they have when they just call him often in position. He may even get 2 callers one with good and the other with very hard to predict range and gl at flop then. I still think a good player can extract more with the raise option but its not a given that others will do the same. And when you remove QQ-AA its best to keep a bit of a hedge there in that range with some JJ, otherwise you are creating a joke push range for that guy that will be called very wide by others who dont respect it anymore, forcing back the top hands in there for full value. See what i mean? A push range in some mixed push and raise strategy still needs to be a bit balanced. So maybe some of these top hands are played both as shoves and raises with some % each time.

Whats your pokerstars username? I would be interested in railing someone who talks this good a game.


Oh and OP don't fold. maybe if it went open suspicious small 3 bet u could consider it but against 2 rips its rarely the top of their range. The BTN is fairly uncapped but UTG shouldn't ever have us dominated there.

we have 23 bbs a million out from the money and the top of our range and block hands that crush us, i agree that *most* dont open jam QQ+ utg with 15bbs so can take that from range and btn can iso stuff we flip with and sometimes dominate we win this hand we have a stack to go deep with, its a daily/weekly mtt wel have this chance time n time again

I guess you don't know who Masque de Z is...